Grab a copy of the 12/15/2004 "Radio World" (http://rwonline.com/reference-room/iboc/index.shtml) and turn to page 14. The Crystal Ball column by consulting engineer Fitch has lots of rings of truth in it: "IBOC is a technocrat's delight, but no one listens to radio with an oscilloscope. They listen to what's on. New programming and adjustments to the new IBOC universe will need until 2009 to take hold."
He concludes the article, which is well worth reading thoroughly and thoughfully, especially by programmers and personalities:
- One strange upshot of the oil crisis is that we may all need to replace our cars with more fuel-efficient vehicles sooner rather than later, which could accelerate the number of satellite radio receivers in use.
- He says he doesn't see your local car dealer getting excited about pushing IBOC into cars if the money for them is on satellite.
- Fitch gives us about five years to "give our audience something, some reason to use the new technology. If digital IBOC is going to happen and if Sirius and XM are going to survive, 2009 will be the year things come into focus and congeal for both."
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