It Was Just One Number

I know that it takes three measurements in a row to create a trend and one stat can easily be a wobble, but when you're looking at an average of every single country station rated nationally by Nielsen slipping even just .2 after several years of growth can be worrisome, as I blogged last year when the country format "Radio Today" was released.

• Was country over-reacting to the exciting growth of the last few years in teens and 18-34, perhaps turning off Gen X?
• If so, would the format that has resisted fragentation for decades by targeting broadly across all narrow demos within 18-49 and especially 25-54 begin to split?

Selling country is tough enough without having to explain why your station wins in the 12-34 age groups while the other guys dominate 35-54.

Perhaps it was my writing last year.  Or, maybe it was just savvy programmers who saw the same thing I did in their local numbers and adjusted.  Or, maybe the new music coming out from artists, writers and producers in the past year was more mass appeal.

Whatever it was, Nielsen had some good news for us last week in what is now called "Audio Today 2014" (each report uses data from the year prior, so Fall 2008 became Radio Today 2009, Fall 2009 became 2010, etc):

Country's 25-34 Share Trend 
Fall 2008:  11.4 *note that this was Country only, we did not start combining Country + New Country until the next edition of Radio Today
Fall 2009:  12.3
Fall 2010:  12.2
Fall 2011:  12.8
Spring 2012:  12.6
Spring 2013: 13.1

After four years of upticks in the center of 25-54, that slip last year had me concerned and now the new stat's move forward is a big relief to see.

It's called "Gen X" because it's a smaller proportion of the population, of course, so the fact that it's contribution to country's cume is lowest of all adult generations is to be expected.

Time spent listening losses drove last year's dip and it's exciting to see it returned to consistent this year with the demo cells on both sides of it, helping support the rebound.

Of course, the latest uptick is just one number too and can't be called a trend yet either, so you'll want to keep a close eye on all narrow cells in our target in local research.

Thanks to this good news from Nielsen (country ranks #2 in teens, #1 18-24, 25-34, 35-44, 45-54 and #2 55-64 - exactly the demo balance our sellers expect from us) we all have earned the right to gloat a bit right now.

Country Music Radio Has About Ten Years (Before It Falls Off A Cliff!)

For the coming decade the prospects of the country format look extremely bright:  very solid with 15 and up and as long as we can continue to forge a passion-driven coalition between Millenials, Gen X and the Boomers we should experience stability and 18-34 growth (graphic from Nielsen Radio Today 2013).

Then, it happens.

We will hit a demographic cliff as the large group of folks who are under 15 today that Frank N. Magid Associates started two years ago to call "The Pluralist Generation."

While no one knows exactly what will happen in the next 20 or 30 years, Magid's research (click for a pdf executive summary), coupled with current events and societal factors, allows us to project significant societal trends that will play out.  

Today's country audience is anything but ethnically diverse.

Inevitable change is the founding reason Plurals is the right name for this generation. 

It’s not just relevant to what’s happening in society currently, or how they are as children now,  the name Plurals reflects what lies ahead, for them, and all of America.

Plurals, as members of this generation will be known, are:  

• America’s last generation with a Caucasian majority
• Beginning to reflect the Gen X parenting style in their mindset
• Existing in the most diverse social circles
• The least likely to believe in the  “American Dream”
• The most positive about America becoming more ethnically diverse
• Affected by blended gender roles

The group-oriented style of Boomers reversed the latchkey kid trend with an unprecedented focus on the well-being of Millennial children at large (e.g., the development and implementation of after- school programs).  

The current transition to the individual-oriented parenting style of Xers is chronicled is today’s headlines (e.g., parent trigger laws and picketing schools about peanut allergy policies).  

Male and female Plurals seem to be already affected by this environment.  Girls aged 8 to 15 have greater expectations in obtaining a college degree, helping others live a better life and changing the world.  They care more about their grades at school and getting feedback from parents and teachers to help them do things better. 

How will the rise of the public, crowd-sourced voice affect the way Plurals view mainstream media sources? 

Will their openness to diversity create demands for more diverse representation in programming and advertising?  Will video content piracy wars (e.g., SOPA) be their equivalent of what Millennials experienced with music (e.g., Napster)?

Will the easy access, even by the youngest Plurals, to devices that enable fast and continuous communication change the way they learn to communicate?  As the Communication Lifestyle spreads and is adopted by young Plurals, will schools and businesses have to make accommodations?      

They, as have generations past, will bring changes in Education, Religion, all Media and Business, Communication and Politics.

FAST FACTS:  The Pluralist Generation, a.k.a. Plurals 

• Current Age: 15 and younger 
• Born:  1997- present*
• Size:  ~68 million
• Ethnicity: Caucasian  54%, Hispanic  24%, African-American  14%,  Asian  4%, Other  4%

* Magid Generational Strategies™ has not yet determined the ending year for the Pluralist Generation.  Societal factors arecurrently being evaluated and birthrate data for 2010, 2011 and 2012 is not yet available.  An improving economy and an expected rise in birthrates will likely signal the start of the next generation – and end of the birth of Plurals. 

Country programmers have roughly a decade to learn about what Magid terms "The First Generation Of The Twenty-First Century."

Unless we get it right, it's likely that as those young folks come into our target horizon, the cohesiveness between today's country youth and our 45+ cells will start to break down driven by polarity over diversity issues.

This is yet another reason to begin to focus now on relating universally, understanding and engaging Millenials and Gen X while at a point in generational history when we have the luxury of the strong TSL of Boomers too.

2014 "Facts Of Life"

Country radio must fight for Gen X's time if we hope to continue to grow at the amazing rate we have done in the last five years in the coming decade.

Generation X and Millennials are related (parents and their children) but you don't reach them both in the same ways.

The three generational cultures that we serve today are all aging, altering their priorities.

Change is accelerated for 18-34, but 35-44 tastes appear to be more stable as social network trends indicate.

Linking all of 2014 generational cohorts:  "immersive experiences"

Gen X feels more stress.

They worry that their "high hopes/tough relaity" lives won't be as good as their parents.

Many are moving downtown and most country format historical hot zips are in the suburbs.  We have some geo-targeting mining to do.

The Workplace is changing, requiring fresh at work listening tactics.

They were more materialistic as teens than their children are today.

Listener expectations are not one size fits all.

What are you planning to do in 2014 to hold onto the young females who came our way in the last five years while increasing loyalty with 35-49 men and women as well?

Is It "Beginning To Sound A Lot Like Christmas"?

It has been seven years since Edison Research was tasked by the Country Radio Seminar to ask country listeners about their preferences in non-stop Holiday tunes (click the charts to enlarge them).

When it became obvious that the decision on what to do on a country radio station was so highly polarized on a national average basis, perhaps driven somewhat by religious preference, CRS stopped including the question in the national format tracking studies because every individual market is so unique, depending not only on theology but also many other factors ranging from how many country stations slice up the pie, the age of the market, if you can afford the luxury of going six weeks without playing any new music so that in January you must completely refamiliarize your core with all of the country hits that came out since mid-November,  whether other format stations like Christian AC or mainstream AC fill the void, etc.

This week, Billboard's midweek Top 40 and Country update publications provided a reminder that 70% of the country listeners that participated in those CRS studies have now aged into the next older target cell and 45-54 seven years ago is now largely 55-64.

Writer Rich Appel:  This year top 40 has been gifted with new and original songs from at least two core artists, Kelly Clarkson (“Underneath the Tree”) and Ariana Grande, who’s taken a page from Bieber’s playbook and releasing a new song each week for four weeks, two of those being originals. Republic Records executive VP Charlie Walk feels the four-song strategy for Grande, fresh off her new artist of the year win at Nov. 24’s American Music Awards, fills the void for top 40’s audience.  “There haven’t really been many contemporary artists putting out modern holiday music, and in the digital space we’re able to move quickly to bring it to Ariana’s massive fan base in time for the season.”

The CHR programmers Appel interviewed while noting that "Christmas begins with CHR" worry that even the best-known traditional Christmas favorites don't fit between the hits of today.

Journalist Phyllis Stark focused her attention on a country station in a market where two of the city's three country stations target younger, leaving the upper-demo one to go all Christmas again this year:  When KFKF Kansas City, Kan., flips the switch on Thanksgiving Day at 2 p.m., it will become the second country station this year to go all-Christmas, following KEGA Salt Lake City’s similar flip on Nov. 22. And like KEGA, this will mark KFKF’s third year stunting with all holiday music, a move that has generated huge ratings gains.  Other than its St. Jude Radiothon Dec. 4-5, KFKF will be churning out the holiday fare nonstop.

As country's target straddles both of the larger population groups on either side of the smaller Gen X cohort the decision of how much Christmas music to play at all and when to do it is making stations who target 18-44 more like Hot AC and CHR in this regard, while that seven year old research on it probably still holds true for you if your station's target resembles a traditional mainstream oldies based AC and is now largely 40+.

It's Not Just How Many, But Also Which Ones

In 2000, almost one in five of the average country station's listeners was between 35 and 44.

Now, Nielsen's "Radio Today" reports that the format's 25-34 (15 to 15.4%) and 45-54 (19.9 up to 20.1) cells have grown in our audience comp as 35-44 slipped to 14.7% - due to the small size of Gen X compared to both the Boomers and Millenials in the general population.

Is that part of the reason the format's share of 35-44 listeners also dipped from the previous year? 

I think it would be if a station hasn't updated its callout screener to account for the generation creep that's been happening over the last decade!

Thanks to Cornerstone Research's Analyst, I compared scores of the best-liked new tunes 25-39 vs 40-54 to show what I mean.  It exaggerates the upper and lower edges of our audience and minimizes the opinions expressed by those right in the middle where we should still be aiming our arrow:

There was a time when most major country stations used callout that was targeted 50/50 25-39 and 40-54, 60% female and "60% core with 40% other core as found in nature."

If your station is still doing it that way, it's time to rethink your research plan.  That's especially true if you have moved from callout to online testing to your own station database.

Certainly, looking at the data that way continues to highlight the generational differences between the oldest and the youngest of your listeners 25-54, but splitting 35-44 in half understates their opinions.

That effect is amplified by the fact that if your station mirrors the national averages it's likely that the 20% of your database that was 35-44 in 2000 is now ten years older.  That makes it more important to look at today's smaller 35-44 folks' input on your music discretely compared to the larger numbers on both ends of our demographic scale.

Meanwhile, further complicating today's country targeting is the emergence of 18-24 and even teens into our cume (and music research).

Who wouldn't want as many younger listeners as possible? 

It's certainly possible to justify calling today's country format age target 18-54 (or even older!), yet dealing with five or six generational cohorts' attitudes, values, lifestyles - let alone music preferences isn't targeting, it's hosting a family reunion.

I want to consider some challenges that presents - and solutions - tomorrow in this space.

Country Will Be Huge In 20 Years. BUT....

... are we going to be moving slowly downward 25-54 and 18-49 year after year between now and then, as leading edge boomers age out of 25-54 and Gen X moves into the middle of it?

It's worth studying both Census Bureau population projections as well as Nielsen's annual Radio Today historical trends to stay ahead of the curve.

More than half of the country radio audience today is over 45.  The country radio format's 35-44 composition percentage has been slipping for the last decade as Gen X has aged into that demo cell right in the center of our target.  (click the link to see Westwood One/Denver VP/Programming John Paul's prescient post and stats on this)  "It could get real ugly" between now and then, he says.

Fortunately, country still ranks #1 18-24. 25-34, 35-44 and 45-54 in 2013:

Last week, Inside Radio talked to a number of smart programmers managing to beat the national averages:

• Keeping 35-44 year-olds tuned in isn’t an issue for “93Q” KKBQ-FM, Houston.  The Cox country station was tops in the demo in September.  More often than not it’s the station’s best-performing demo.  PD Johnny Chiang attributes that to a carefully balanced music mix that’s big on common denominator records. “You have to go by what the song sounds like and the lyrics still matter a lot,” he says. “The biggest advantage country has over every other format is how the music and lyrics connect with the audience.”  Keeping country radio a family affair starts with the research, he and other programmers say.
   
• Entercom country “106.5 The Wolf” WDAF-FM, Kansas City PD Wes Poe says the station keeps Millennials and Gen X-ers satisfied by testing its music across the wide 25-45 demo.  Consultant Jaye Albright says it’s important for country stations to include men and upper demos in their research — not just younger women. “I would target 22-44 so you don’t get dragged too young and blow off upper demos,” she says. “The 35-44 demo has the potential of being country listeners for the next 20 years.” 

• Clear Channel EVP of programming Clay Hunnicutt says country radio continues to have broad demographic appeal and that it has attracted 18-34 year-olds organically. “We have to convert them, not target them,” he says. “I don’t want to make someone like me.  But if they’re coming to the party, I really want to show them a good time.”

So, what's the big deal?

To overcome the smaller proportion of 35-44 in both the general population and country's audience comp, the format must increase it's share of both Generation X and Generation Y listening above current levels.

The national country format average share 35-44 was up from 2011 to 2012 from a 12.2 to a 12.8, but then slipped to a 12.6 this year. 

The majority of country stations tracked by Nielsen this year cut a smaller slice of a shrinking pie. 
 
Turning that slight dip around by the time the next annual format report emerges in 2014 will lay the necessary groundwork for both a solid medium- and long-term future.  

Failing to do so will mean we'll need to wait for the average age of 18-49 and 25-54 to come down, which census data forecasts won't happen for a decade.  

Getting it "right" between now and then requires targeting more discretely than the standard ten year demo cells, growing new coalitions based on more than the mix of age or gender that worked for the format in the past.

Our Uncertain Economy

Prosper Research's monthly tracking of consumer attitudes has it's up's and down's this month:

• Those very confident or confident in chances for a strong economy wobble in May, decreasing slightly to 39 percent. With the up / down action we’ve been seeing with confidence this year, it’s evident that consumers are struggling with feelings of uncertainty regarding the economy.
• Eight out of ten consumers feels that there will be “more” or the “same” number of pink slips handed out over the next six months, increasing slightly over a year ago. So even as the official US unemployment rate continues to decline, consumers seem unable to quell their concerns.
• Consumers are feeling uncertain about employment because their guts are telling them what the numbers are telling us – the unemployment rate is down because the opportunities are slim and an increasing number of capable, working age adults are being labeled “discouraged” – and are lost from the labor force as a result.
• It appears that, at least in recent months, consumers have become a bit more comfortable in their ability to meet monthly spending demands, with a decreasing number of consumers saying that there’s too much month at the end of their paychecks “all” or “most of the time.”
• However, more than a quarter of adults 18+ reported that they are feeling “worse off” financially compared to a year ago.
• And, while consumers may feel that they are getting better at handling their month to month expenditures, it appears they may be doing so at the expense of their savings, with the US personal saving rate currently remaining at lows not seen since just before the Great Recession.
• New discoveries from our Analytics Unit provide support that happiness increases with age. Members of the Silent generation rank as the happiest in America followed by Boomers, Gen X, and Millennials.
  
  
  Consumer Snapshot May 2013 from Prosper Business Development

Country's Gen X (Conversation)

My Country's Gen X Problem post initiated a Facebook dialog:

Bob McNeill:  Of course country has a 35-44 problem. The average age of a country listener has been right in the middle of that demo for decades and now, with the influx of pop, they're disenfranchised. We never learn.  Country has always been the only adult format that's sustained by current music. Balance is always the issue. And with that, the development of core artists that aren't disposable as they are in pop formats. Disposable songs and artists are a danger to the country format. I fear we're allowing the music business to drive the direction of the format which is problematic since radio and records do have divergent goals at some point.

Ralph Cipolla:  Classic Rock PDs (and Sales folk) have been lamenting the inevitable march of time... now, they face what traditional Oldies stations did 15 years ago. The cell they owned - 35-44 - is now a secondary demo, as the format is firmly rooted 45-54. And each year, it gets one year older. The "newest" legitimately fitting songs in the format are now 25 years old, Led Zeppelin I is 44 years old and was the music of those who are now 60+ years old. Throwing in a category of polarizing Grunge & Metallica songs works for some stations with Rock roots and little competition, particularly in The South, but can be a disaster for others. I've always been interested in the Country airplay vintage v. audience age connection that appears to defy the typical music vintage to listener age if/then equation.  Is this a potential opportunity? A difficult-to-reach young cell appears to be coming along and could be welcomed into the fold, while a traditional core demo sees the ever-growing distraction of Sports/Talk & Talk & time-shifting tech that Arb can't yet measure - but they remain in attendance and need to be the object of a re-doubled engagement effort - assuming its not just a music issue (is it ever?)

Drew Edmundson:  I've always been more of a variety guy (mixing the classics in with the new) in pretty much any format. People 35-44 like new songs (I'm 44 and love Lady A, Zach BB, Aldean, etc). I think there needs to be a healthy dose of older songs so as to not alienate that demo.  I do nights on a country station as well as afternoons on an AC station and I see many crossovers. Taylor Swift, Carrie Underwood, Tim McGraw, Jason Aldean, Kelly Clarkson, Lady A, Kenny Chesney, Faith Hill, etc.  I look at this as a good thing for the country format.

Leslie Humble As a DJ/Programmer of Country Music dating back even before my days at WSM and The Grand Ole Opry, I see several factors at play. A large section of the age group 50 - 65 hate the Pop country with the semi Country vocal over Rock/Pop instrumentation. The aforementioned 35-44 Cell is on the edge of being torn by the extreme fragmentation that is today's micro cell centric choices. Even 35-44 should be more incrementally targeted.  Two things: Going back to Jaye's original thought on capturing the 35-44 demo. Isn't it the same as it's always been? Lifestyle. Target your promotions, on air comments, remotes, to a 40 year old woman for that demo. Lifestyle. As far as the music....I must slightly disagree that Garth or 90's are as far as you can go. Even if it's testing that way. I do national voice over work mostly now and my shows are live ones. I see 20 year olds jumping up for Hank Jr., John Anderson, Mel McDaniel, Charlie Daniels and on and on. It reminds me of the story of how top 40 was discovered by Todd Storz by watching the same song played over and over on a jukebox. The music that demo and others will accept is also a self perpetuating thing. How many of us feel like we helped "break" or Make a hit record by playing it? Musically WE tell them what is a hit or good in many cases. The only distinction, to me, is that the PRODUCTION VALUES, must be of the level we expect today. 

Jaye Albright: Thanks, to all of you.  Personally, I don't think that it gets solved by playing 90's or earlier for a mainstream or a "new country" station, since the majority of 35-44 available to country radio today were not listening to country music when they were teens.  It's about balance, as more than one of you have noted. The great majority of today's A artists, almost all of which have emerged in the last five years aren't crossover acts.  Right now, country has 18 touring acts able to fill arenas, which is an unprecedented development in the history of the format.  We do have a handful of them you'd call "crossover" acts, but still the vast majority get played only on country radio.

PS:  If this piqued your interest and you want some specific advice on what to do next, click on the CRS 2013 session "Younger Country: Is 18-34 the New 25-54? and listen to very savvy panelists John Dimick/Lincoln Financial, Chris Huff/KSCS and Sean Ross/Edison Research share their perspectives on coalitions vs conflicts between tastes of the wide country  demographic targets.  It's an hour well spent, if you missed that session at CRS.

Country's Gen X Problem

Arbitron's full Radio Today 2013 annual update tracking all format quantitative and qualitative trends reflects both change and growth as my blogs of the last week have previewed.

It highlights something troubling that you're going to want to look at locally. 

Has recent under-30 growth hurt 35-44?

* All of the demographic proportions have remained relatively steady except for adults 18-24, which rose to its highest level in a decade, and adults 35-44, which declined to its lowest.

*  The country and new country formats are a strong performer in TSL, regardless of age group. Among the 16 top formats, it was tied for No. 1 among persons 12+, and was No. 1 by a full hour among persons 12-24. It ranked No. 2 by a wide margin among adults 18-34, was also No. 2 among adults 25-54, and third with adults 35-64.

Suggestion:  look very carefully at 25-29, 30-34, 35-39 and 40-44 in local perceptual and music test data.  Arbitron's data tracks actual PPM and perceived diary usage data, but isn't designed to be used to choose your most effective target, but 35-44 is going to be with us for too long as a marketing target for our clients to ignore any weakness there.

It's the only target cell in 2013's national averages where it appears that country radio is failing to get its fair share of the total population.

* Radio Today 2013 (get the full client exclusive report at "my.arbitron.com" (the Arbitron customer site where you download data). 

A&O&B Client Seminar 2013 Quotes

Thanks to Country Aircheck for being on hand for our event and for taking such copious notes:  "Beyond revealing their annual (client only ppt) Roadmap Study, the Albright & O’Malley & Brenner Pre-CRS Client Seminar touched on everything from being active, engaged and relevant with your audience via social media, digital tools and station branding, to tips for talent and what Gen Y will mean to our industry in the coming years."

• Of 6,272 Country P1 participants from 50 markets in the U.S. and Canada, 70% report being satisfied with the format. Of those who aren’t, song-repetition and commercials were top reasons. Country listeners are increasingly tech savvy, with 75% reporting using some sort of social media every day (up from 66% last year), and 31% report having an internet connection of some sort in their cars.
   
• Rick Barker says stations too often use digital tools to “push” information to the audience without “engaging” them. “You have to offer value,” he says. Among his examples: teaming with new artists you can’t yet include in your playlist who are willing to offer free song downloads via the station website and social media. Attached sponsorships can help drive NTR.
   
• “Content is key,” says Mike Stern. “Be a friend and a companion. Be a filter, give them something they can steal to use themselves, and focus on things that make you react.”
   
• Steve Zielonka encourages programmers to “always be collecting data (ABCD)” and use it to engage the audience. “You can’t just send out irrelevant information anymore. They’ll delete you, they’ll mark you as spam and they’ll block you. There are always negative consequences.” Use your tools to conduct surveys, for example. “Ask, ‘Are you a Toby Keith fan? Here’s a chance for you to sing on stage with him.’ Then follow-up with other Toby Keith-related
  contests. When you send a targeted email, you’ll see your open rates double and triple.”
  
  
• Newcap Radio VP/Programming and Brand Like A Rockstar author Steve Jones says, “Brands are feelings that live in the heart of the customer. Jimmy Buffett’s biggest song wasn’t that big of a hit. ‘Margaritaville’ peaked at No. 7. But at his shows, people are painting their bodies, getting drunk and having a great time because he sells the experience of being a beach-bum.” Make it a point to understand your enemy and let them help define your brand. “Walmart’s slogan ‘Save Money, Live Better’ makes it all about saving money,” Jones explains. “Then Target comes in with ‘Expect More, Pay Less,’ basically saying, ‘You’re above that crap they’re selling at Walmart.’”
       
• Grab a (client only) copy of "The Gen X Versus Gen Y Conflict" (pdf) my presentation about the population shift ahead of us. Gen Y is estimated at 78 million, much larger than the 40-50 million-strong Gen X preceding it, and it sees the world quite differently. It’s a group that Country programmers will need to adjust to."

My Favorite "Research Email" Each Month

As radio's content imperative moves from time-worn things like the long-serving horrible-scopes, today's birthdays and anniversaries, song parodies and other Boomer benchmarks to more fresh Gen X and Gen Y info, authentic and interactive perspectives on the hottest topics right now, victory often goes to the personality who understands what the right buzz topic is today and how to make something personal, engaging and unique that he/she can brand from it.

For example: "What’s Hot…is the NFL or College Football the top pick?"

• For many this month “autumn” and “football” are synonymous…specifically, 64.4% are glued to NFL games, while 54.0% enjoy college football.
• Also hot this month? The Help was blockbuster among the majority (51.6%) and 3D TV (46.0%) might just be the gift that saves Christmas 2011. Those under 35 are digging the Nintendo 3DS (and presumably its recent price drop), while females will be integrating ankle boots and the color red in their fall wardrobes. What’s not? The stock market…’nuff said there, right?

OK, now that you know that, what do you plan to DO about it?

To start getting Phil Rist's interpretations of Big Research trend reports, follow him on Twitter or Facebook.

Country's Age Target Is Only Part Of It

Inside Radio's item about the current attempt to present radio's powerful reach among "Alpha Boomers" reminds me of a similar effort made many years ago by all of the Golden West Broadcasters radio stations. They did tons of research (and I don't think anyone could have done it better than "the world's greatest radio station" owners) that proved how affluent and loyal to radio upper demos were, just like the current initiative.

With strong news and classic hits brands that attract high concentrations of the demo, CBS Radio is among the media companies trying to change outdated advertiser perceptions that this group consists primarily of silver-haired, shuffleboard-playing couples wearing Bermuda shorts. The company has been making Alpha Boomer presentations in all of its markets. “We’re walking into clients and agencies and showing them how this population of 50-64 year-olds is exploding and they’re so different compared to 30 years ago,” CBS Radio president of sales Michael Weiss says. “Their look and behavior is more contemporary, they take better care of themselves and their disposable income is much higher, particularly in the 45-64 year range.”

This is a great story for today's country, too, of course, which has been riding the boomer-driven age wave for the past three decades and the early 90's explosion for the format can partially be explained by the growth of 30-34 year olds in the population at that time...

.. and now is seeing Gen X's smaller proportion of the national population reflected in our aging average core audience as A&O's Roadmap 2011 indicates.

But, before we abandon hope for younger demos, take a look at the size of the "Taylor Swift generation" (also known as Gen Y/The Millenials).

Right now, they are centered in their young 20's, but in the next decade they will dominate 18-49 and 25-54 targets.


Hopefully, the 25 year old media buyers of today understand that demo well, perhaps better than we do, and are enjoying the values of country music radio.

Not only are they the ones we're hoping to sell our upper-demo story to today, but they will be the vanguard of our younger demo strategy of the coming decade.

As they get older, maybe their memory will fade, when we start pitching them on country's great 18-49 performance in just 5-10 years!

A&O Roadmap 2011 - Good News/Bad News

Each February for the past five years, thousands of P-1 county radio listeners from all regions of the U.S. and Canada have given their feedback in an online perceptual.

Exciting: 72% of the 2011 sample agrees that they are "very satisfied with your current favorite country station," the highest percentage since we started asking the question.

Last year, that number was 68%, up from 2009's 64.6%. In 2008, 67% claimed to be very satisfied, down from 2007's 70%.

Click to see the meeting agenda

Potentially challenging narrow demo trends among the self-selecting random samples who completed our surveys over the past five years:


25-34 and 45-54 has been wobbling up and down, 35-44 slipped, as both 12-24 and 55+ have grown in their proportion of our core listener target.

• Is this merely the aging of country's traditional target into older narrow cells, but slowly being replaced by emerging Generation Y?
• The impact of additional competition from outside the format caused by new music cycles attractive in unique ways to each narrow demo within country's audience?

For sure: it has never been wise to find a "narrow age target" for the broad lifestyle/psychographic format that is country radio.

In 2011 it becomes even harder to build a values coalition between the growing demographic edges, both old and young, with a smaller Gen X in the center.

That impressive number of station loyalists who stated that they are more satisfied with the stations which asked for their opinions in 2011 proves that it's achievable, offering a promising sign for the future.

A&O will look at other fresh data points which may be driving those ups and downs in Nashville on Tuesday.

Hopefully. you'll be there.

Are You A LeBron? Or A Taylor?

Generations ("turnings") and birth dates do a lot to define us. For example, both Gen-Xer LeBron James and Millennial Taylor Swift are December's children.

This year, he celebrates his 26th birthday and she will be 21.

"X" seemingly marks the spot for folks born prior to 1981. Don't ask "Y," but the defining culture changed after that year, even though a mere five years separates their ages.

• Gen X = Good of the me.
• Millennial = Good of the team?
• Or, not?

Questions are being asked about why James felt the need to make such a major media opera of his decision to leave Cleveland and move to Miami.

Maybe there's a bit of "Y" in him too, since Taylor spent an hour online with 60,000 fans and media to simply say that she has a new single coming soon.

Or, is there a little "X" in her?

One thing for sure. You won't be seeing a "LeBron Connect" social network with him anytime soon.

What about you? When were you born? What age do you target? Do you have some homework to do?

Rule #7

It has been two decades since Trout & Rees wrote the book "The 22 Immutable Laws of Marketing," which suggests that it often is better, when you find yourself on the second or third rung of a ladder and someone else is firmly perched on top of it and shows no signs of climbing down to make room for you up there, to build a new ladder.

Creating a new ladder means finding a new design improvement, new target, new perceptual hill. Steve Jobs and Apple seem to make a very good business following this rule again and again.

There are two kinds of warfare (if you don't count guerrilla, which is normally not a viable long-term marketing strategy in the face of solidly branded competition): offensive attack or flanking.

As a flanker, by definition, you are not in competition with anyone. Your objective is to advance NOT on the competition BUT on an open position. In the perfect flanking maneuver, the competition is no one!

The criteria for evaluating a new radio format's position:

1. What is the interest overall in the format and position among target listeners? Is there sufficient room between them for a middle ground attitude and music mix?

2. What is the music taste pattern and music preference for the open position? Which possible approach is closer to the particular taste of your market? What has the exposure of the music been in the past in the market?

3. Is the hole already covered in the minds of the target audience by an existing station? This one can fool you. Just listening to an existing station doesn’t always indicate all of strong images which drive their usage today driven by their history.

Once you find a “hole,” the key is attitude, music focus and overall positioning and these ingredients are so important to the target that getting them wrong at the inception can be disastrous.

You only get a chance to be new one time. And, once you have sullied your name with the target group, especially today’s Gen X and Gen Y folks whose attention span is extremely short, it is much tougher to rejuvenate the image than it is to get it right from day one.

A smart flanker is going to attack empty territory. Everyone should give up only a little and no one loses a lot. The only exception: when a station deconstructs itself in the face of the new perceived "attack" and "defends" against it by, for example, shifting a successful focus to a different one, they have basically changed format and disenfranchised their core audience.

This only works when the flanker's potential target audience is larger or more desirable from a business point of view than the defender's current format and can get expensive for both the incumbent and newbee if the flanking attack turns into head-on.

The best advice in the face of any flanking attack: stay COOL.

React only when/if your numbers drop. Find out why you are no longer satisfying your target as successfully as you once did and correct that. Focus on attacking yourself, not the new competition.

2010

Chuck Geiger wrote:

What is on the horizon in 2010 for Country programming?

My thoughts:

-Music: In 2010, 50% of 18-49 will be the Taylor Swift generation, 36% Gen X and only 13% leading edge boomers. This will prove to be a game-changer and a huge growth opportunity for country, as long as we understand the underlying values which unite our transitioning community.

-Imaging: Crisp, concise and compelling.

-Stationality: No more shouting at listeners in 80's CHR style. More authentic, funny, listener-driven.

-Morning Shows: Benchmarks and bits are replaced by today's hot topics, interacting with listeners about them in entertaining ways.

-Talent and VT development: No more punching out six hours of v/t's in 45 minutes with no prep. 2010 country listeners want to help create our content, using all forms of new and old media. Construct a social network which shares on all of your traditional and new media channels.

-Social Media: Don't put Facebook on your show, put your show on Facebook, on your blog, your podcasts, your texting. Allow listeners to have a voice in the music you play, but not in the old one person's request changes the station way of thinking. Listeners vote, and see how others vote, to champion their favorite songs and artists.

-Marketing: Viral and buzz, driven by content + direct marketing to hot zips + TV to own the proper music quality image and give free samples of the product. Thank goodness over the air and cable TV both still need to trade with us. Be smart about your trades and concentrate force for maximum reach and frequency on a consistent basis. Loyalty marketing to drive more listening occasions daily and more days per week.

-Research: Online music and perceptual research is now virtually free to everyone, so if you aren't doing it, your competition may know more about your listeners than you do. If that's the case and your in-house research efforts raise more questions than you can answer, it's going to be increasingly helpful in 2010 to hire an expert. A few years ago, everyone was doing traditional strategic studies and auditorium testing. In 2010, only the big winners will be doing it, making it more useful than ever, even more worth the money it costs.

Generation X: Coming of Age Online

Born between 1965 and 1981, Generation X is no longer the grungy, ripped-jeans kids Time magazine first described in 1990. Gen Xers are now in their peak years of product and service consumption, and they view electronic media as a primary tool for conducting research and accomplishing a vast array of every day tasks.

EMarketer's new Generation X report analyzes the attitudes and behaviors of the first generation to reach maturity sitting in front of computer screens while talking on mobile phones.

According to US Census Bureau statistics, 83.8 million people were in the 25-to-44-year-old Gen X age bracket as of July 2007. And, even to a greater degree than the baby boomers that preceded them, Generation Xers have embraced technology. For information on everything from parenting to consumer products, they go online. For them the Internet, along with mobile phones and PDAs, is a convenient way to shop, bank and network with peers.

Unfortunately, Gen X presents unprecedented challenges to marketers. The media they use is fragmented. They embrace a wider range of lifestyles than previous generations. And, weaned on MTV and cable television, they are largely immune to traditional advertising.

Country radio is fortunate, at least. that we can watch younger-targeted radio formats over the next three to five years and learn from mistakes they make, but one thing is certain: we won't be doing things the same way in ten years .. or we'll be only a 50+ format!

Fortunately, there are many examples of successful country stations which have found that they can use core values univerals to do well across the demographic spectrum of the family reunion that is the country target audience, from teens to seniors.

Before You Open The Mic, Give This Some Thought...

"People aren't all that interested in what the talking heads have to say. Instead, they want to participate, control the content and communicate with each other."
-- Alan Levy, CEO, BlogTalkRadio, on Edison Research's "Future Of Webcasting" webinar

Boomers were the 'me' generation.
Gen X'ers are the 'us' generation.
Gen Y is the engagement ("you") generation.

What's your pronoun?

A&O At The R&R Convention: "2007's Best Ten Minutes Of Country Radio"

R&R Country Editor R.J. Curtis' Country Session will be on Wednesday (9/26/07) from 10:15 am to Noon and Michael and Jaye will kick it off with a new audio visual interactive presentation showcasing the very best audio and even web and TV video of country's top radio stations, and they dissect the targeting, values, content, entertainment and production elements to learn from these terrific moments of great country radio understand what makes them so compelling and engaging.

The format has gotten more competitive in many market situations over the last several years and the winning country stations have learned how to improve their game in ways that hold onto the traditional core, while building Gen X and Gen Y listening. You'll hear how they are doing it and what the latest strategies and tactics being employed are in this entertaining and enlightening session.

We will see you at R&R '07!

Bonneville Thinks They "Get" Gen X News

And, their new WTOP-FM news website certainly sets a good example for the rest of us, from the fact that they stream, to the writing style and vocaubulary (for example, they'd never make use of a big word like that one and would say instead 'the words they use') .. to web video traffic reports.

Next, they need to work on that AP copy that is RSS'd to the site. (Too many passive verbs to start with..) More compelling: everything must be active and immediate, with some sarcasm added too for good measure. CBC's Much Music DJ turned news anchor George "Strombo" is setting a good example of how to seriously cover today's hot topics without becoming the Daily Show or Stephen Colbert, imho.