It Was Just One Number

I know that it takes three measurements in a row to create a trend and one stat can easily be a wobble, but when you're looking at an average of every single country station rated nationally by Nielsen slipping even just .2 after several years of growth can be worrisome, as I blogged last year when the country format "Radio Today" was released.

• Was country over-reacting to the exciting growth of the last few years in teens and 18-34, perhaps turning off Gen X?
• If so, would the format that has resisted fragentation for decades by targeting broadly across all narrow demos within 18-49 and especially 25-54 begin to split?

Selling country is tough enough without having to explain why your station wins in the 12-34 age groups while the other guys dominate 35-54.

Perhaps it was my writing last year.  Or, maybe it was just savvy programmers who saw the same thing I did in their local numbers and adjusted.  Or, maybe the new music coming out from artists, writers and producers in the past year was more mass appeal.

Whatever it was, Nielsen had some good news for us last week in what is now called "Audio Today 2014" (each report uses data from the year prior, so Fall 2008 became Radio Today 2009, Fall 2009 became 2010, etc):

Country's 25-34 Share Trend 
Fall 2008:  11.4 *note that this was Country only, we did not start combining Country + New Country until the next edition of Radio Today
Fall 2009:  12.3
Fall 2010:  12.2
Fall 2011:  12.8
Spring 2012:  12.6
Spring 2013: 13.1

After four years of upticks in the center of 25-54, that slip last year had me concerned and now the new stat's move forward is a big relief to see.

It's called "Gen X" because it's a smaller proportion of the population, of course, so the fact that it's contribution to country's cume is lowest of all adult generations is to be expected.

Time spent listening losses drove last year's dip and it's exciting to see it returned to consistent this year with the demo cells on both sides of it, helping support the rebound.

Of course, the latest uptick is just one number too and can't be called a trend yet either, so you'll want to keep a close eye on all narrow cells in our target in local research.

Thanks to this good news from Nielsen (country ranks #2 in teens, #1 18-24, 25-34, 35-44, 45-54 and #2 55-64 - exactly the demo balance our sellers expect from us) we all have earned the right to gloat a bit right now.

Improving Your Country Station's TSL: Are You Targeting A Bit Too Young?

Exactly one year ago, Scarborough research highlighted the fact that what the company calls "heavy" users of radio are significantly more likely to use the Internet as a source for entertainment than Americans who listen to less radio.

90% of Heavy Radio Listeners in Scarborough's research are between 18 and 64 but there are noteworthy generational differences.

Some formats, of course, have no choice in which generational cohort to target, but since country music preferences don't seem to fragment until our listeners get over 55 (see my post on this) and it's possible to target all three demos between 25 and 54, here's another reason to really understand 35-44 and not get drawn too quickly toward under 30!

Will The Country Format Ever Fragment?

It was exactly 25 years ago at the Country Radio Seminar when researcher/guru John Parikhal predicted that the country format was about to fragment into two equal branches, mainstream and classic.  Instead, about a year later, a guy named Garth and seven or eight other exciting new artists emerged as "the class of '89," painting over the cracks that had started to show.

If you read my last four posts which show that by playing the right songs and artists it's still possible for a country station to cobble together the optimum coalition that spans from teens to leading edge boomers you might think that country radio still hasn't fragmented.

You'd be wrong.

We just hadn't looked old enough as yet.

55+ country partisans are clearly not happy with the direction that even the biggest hits of today have taken.

That's more than a third of today's country radio audience.

So, yes, country will fragment.  It will happen the day someone finds media buyers and advertisers willing to pay for 55 and older.

Meanwhile, for the average country radio station today, they remain the huge segment of our audience that no one is willing to pay for, but savvy buyers who ask our sellers to pitch on 18-34, 18-49 and 25-54 know that they get for free!

Common Threads

The key to broadening the appeal of a format with a target as broad as country radio is finding the songs that drive loyalty for as many age and gender subgroups as possible.

The lower the "difference" number, the less the polarity among these highest rated hits:

I get concerned when I see a difference greater than 10% when comparing cross tabs. 

Aldean and Eli Young, for example, highlight a potential incompatibility if the target includes both 25-34 and 35-44.

Meanwhile, it appears that 25-34 and 45-54 may be more alike in their tastes with these songs this week than 35-44 is.

If you don't look at all the target cells individually and compare them, you'd be missing something important.

In certain very competitive situations, even standard demos are too wide as generational cohorts age year by year from one cell to another.

(More) 35-44

How many demos can a country station super-serve?

Top of the 18-24 ranker:

The highest "favorite" scores of all four demo cells for the ones they love.

25-34:

Slightly lower positive passion levels, but still impressively strong.

35-44:

Four of the five top songs are the same as the younger cells, as Blake Shelton sprints to the line in the center 35+ cells.

45-54:

The upper end of the target's ranker looks a lot like the other three.

So, perhaps 18-54 is a target demo when it comes to the most popular songs?

How many demos can we super-serve? 
 
When it comes to our biggest hits:  at least four of them, thankfully!

It's Not Just How Many, But Also Which Ones

In 2000, almost one in five of the average country station's listeners was between 35 and 44.

Now, Nielsen's "Radio Today" reports that the format's 25-34 (15 to 15.4%) and 45-54 (19.9 up to 20.1) cells have grown in our audience comp as 35-44 slipped to 14.7% - due to the small size of Gen X compared to both the Boomers and Millenials in the general population.

Is that part of the reason the format's share of 35-44 listeners also dipped from the previous year? 

I think it would be if a station hasn't updated its callout screener to account for the generation creep that's been happening over the last decade!

Thanks to Cornerstone Research's Analyst, I compared scores of the best-liked new tunes 25-39 vs 40-54 to show what I mean.  It exaggerates the upper and lower edges of our audience and minimizes the opinions expressed by those right in the middle where we should still be aiming our arrow:

There was a time when most major country stations used callout that was targeted 50/50 25-39 and 40-54, 60% female and "60% core with 40% other core as found in nature."

If your station is still doing it that way, it's time to rethink your research plan.  That's especially true if you have moved from callout to online testing to your own station database.

Certainly, looking at the data that way continues to highlight the generational differences between the oldest and the youngest of your listeners 25-54, but splitting 35-44 in half understates their opinions.

That effect is amplified by the fact that if your station mirrors the national averages it's likely that the 20% of your database that was 35-44 in 2000 is now ten years older.  That makes it more important to look at today's smaller 35-44 folks' input on your music discretely compared to the larger numbers on both ends of our demographic scale.

Meanwhile, further complicating today's country targeting is the emergence of 18-24 and even teens into our cume (and music research).

Who wouldn't want as many younger listeners as possible? 

It's certainly possible to justify calling today's country format age target 18-54 (or even older!), yet dealing with five or six generational cohorts' attitudes, values, lifestyles - let alone music preferences isn't targeting, it's hosting a family reunion.

I want to consider some challenges that presents - and solutions - tomorrow in this space.

Country Will Be Huge In 20 Years. BUT....

... are we going to be moving slowly downward 25-54 and 18-49 year after year between now and then, as leading edge boomers age out of 25-54 and Gen X moves into the middle of it?

It's worth studying both Census Bureau population projections as well as Nielsen's annual Radio Today historical trends to stay ahead of the curve.

More than half of the country radio audience today is over 45.  The country radio format's 35-44 composition percentage has been slipping for the last decade as Gen X has aged into that demo cell right in the center of our target.  (click the link to see Westwood One/Denver VP/Programming John Paul's prescient post and stats on this)  "It could get real ugly" between now and then, he says.

Fortunately, country still ranks #1 18-24. 25-34, 35-44 and 45-54 in 2013:

Last week, Inside Radio talked to a number of smart programmers managing to beat the national averages:

• Keeping 35-44 year-olds tuned in isn’t an issue for “93Q” KKBQ-FM, Houston.  The Cox country station was tops in the demo in September.  More often than not it’s the station’s best-performing demo.  PD Johnny Chiang attributes that to a carefully balanced music mix that’s big on common denominator records. “You have to go by what the song sounds like and the lyrics still matter a lot,” he says. “The biggest advantage country has over every other format is how the music and lyrics connect with the audience.”  Keeping country radio a family affair starts with the research, he and other programmers say.
   
• Entercom country “106.5 The Wolf” WDAF-FM, Kansas City PD Wes Poe says the station keeps Millennials and Gen X-ers satisfied by testing its music across the wide 25-45 demo.  Consultant Jaye Albright says it’s important for country stations to include men and upper demos in their research — not just younger women. “I would target 22-44 so you don’t get dragged too young and blow off upper demos,” she says. “The 35-44 demo has the potential of being country listeners for the next 20 years.” 

• Clear Channel EVP of programming Clay Hunnicutt says country radio continues to have broad demographic appeal and that it has attracted 18-34 year-olds organically. “We have to convert them, not target them,” he says. “I don’t want to make someone like me.  But if they’re coming to the party, I really want to show them a good time.”

So, what's the big deal?

To overcome the smaller proportion of 35-44 in both the general population and country's audience comp, the format must increase it's share of both Generation X and Generation Y listening above current levels.

The national country format average share 35-44 was up from 2011 to 2012 from a 12.2 to a 12.8, but then slipped to a 12.6 this year. 

The majority of country stations tracked by Nielsen this year cut a smaller slice of a shrinking pie. 
 
Turning that slight dip around by the time the next annual format report emerges in 2014 will lay the necessary groundwork for both a solid medium- and long-term future.  

Failing to do so will mean we'll need to wait for the average age of 18-49 and 25-54 to come down, which census data forecasts won't happen for a decade.  

Getting it "right" between now and then requires targeting more discretely than the standard ten year demo cells, growing new coalitions based on more than the mix of age or gender that worked for the format in the past.

A&O&B Client Seminar 2013 Quotes

Thanks to Country Aircheck for being on hand for our event and for taking such copious notes:  "Beyond revealing their annual (client only ppt) Roadmap Study, the Albright & O’Malley & Brenner Pre-CRS Client Seminar touched on everything from being active, engaged and relevant with your audience via social media, digital tools and station branding, to tips for talent and what Gen Y will mean to our industry in the coming years."

• Of 6,272 Country P1 participants from 50 markets in the U.S. and Canada, 70% report being satisfied with the format. Of those who aren’t, song-repetition and commercials were top reasons. Country listeners are increasingly tech savvy, with 75% reporting using some sort of social media every day (up from 66% last year), and 31% report having an internet connection of some sort in their cars.
   
• Rick Barker says stations too often use digital tools to “push” information to the audience without “engaging” them. “You have to offer value,” he says. Among his examples: teaming with new artists you can’t yet include in your playlist who are willing to offer free song downloads via the station website and social media. Attached sponsorships can help drive NTR.
   
• “Content is key,” says Mike Stern. “Be a friend and a companion. Be a filter, give them something they can steal to use themselves, and focus on things that make you react.”
   
• Steve Zielonka encourages programmers to “always be collecting data (ABCD)” and use it to engage the audience. “You can’t just send out irrelevant information anymore. They’ll delete you, they’ll mark you as spam and they’ll block you. There are always negative consequences.” Use your tools to conduct surveys, for example. “Ask, ‘Are you a Toby Keith fan? Here’s a chance for you to sing on stage with him.’ Then follow-up with other Toby Keith-related
  contests. When you send a targeted email, you’ll see your open rates double and triple.”
  
  
• Newcap Radio VP/Programming and Brand Like A Rockstar author Steve Jones says, “Brands are feelings that live in the heart of the customer. Jimmy Buffett’s biggest song wasn’t that big of a hit. ‘Margaritaville’ peaked at No. 7. But at his shows, people are painting their bodies, getting drunk and having a great time because he sells the experience of being a beach-bum.” Make it a point to understand your enemy and let them help define your brand. “Walmart’s slogan ‘Save Money, Live Better’ makes it all about saving money,” Jones explains. “Then Target comes in with ‘Expect More, Pay Less,’ basically saying, ‘You’re above that crap they’re selling at Walmart.’”
       
• Grab a (client only) copy of "The Gen X Versus Gen Y Conflict" (pdf) my presentation about the population shift ahead of us. Gen Y is estimated at 78 million, much larger than the 40-50 million-strong Gen X preceding it, and it sees the world quite differently. It’s a group that Country programmers will need to adjust to."

More On Country's Youth Movement

Listening to country, there is a certain authenticity and sensitivity that is hard to find in other styles of music. Many of the themes in country music are about dealing with loss and change, something that resonated with me as I entered the next chapter of my life. Perhaps the best example is Trace Adkins telling me “You’re Gonna Miss This,” teaching me that each stage of life is filled with apprehension so one must embrace and thrive in any situation.

While many hailed fun’s “We Are Young” as the anthem of youth, I feel that Jake Owen’s “Barefoot Blue Jean Night” perfectly captured a carefree spirit and painted a perfect picture of simplicity and carefree enjoyment.

From the lovelorn Hunter Hayes, the down-home revelry of Jason Aldean and the vigor and heart of Luke Bryan, I can only wonder what new personal gems will find their way onto my iPod as country music and the stories that come along with it enjoy their spot in the limelight.

Country music may not be for everyone, but for my money, country is where the heart of storytelling is in music. As Paisley sings in “This is Country Music,” “This is your life in a song.”

  -- Christopher James, a Loyola University junior in Monday's campus newspaper

"Y" Not?

Nashville Tennessean writer Jaquetta White picked up some seemingly-contradictory quotes as she solicited reactions to the debut of "The Bobby Bones Show" on WSIX and numerous other Clear Channel stations:

“We’re targeting the show to the 20- and 30-somethings, which hasn’t been done in the country format,” WSIX Program Director Michael Bryan said. “If you look at the artists, what we’re doing is a reflection of what’s popular. We have to do this if we’re going to raise a new generation of country listeners.”

I recommended radio programmers take a cue from census data, which indicate that today’s 16- to 33-year-olds, estimated at about 78 million people, as a group are not only larger than the generation immediately preceding them, but also larger than the leading edge of baby boomers.  “You don’t even have to target younger. It’s just that America is becoming younger because of this generational cohort.  I don’t think the average country station has to do anything to attract the younger generation. All you have to do is play the latest hits by the latest stars.”

Twenty years ago, the topic might not have generated the same level of interest, said Sean Ross, vice president of music and programming at Edison Research.  “There wasn’t any music that a self-respecting teen would have been interested in,” Ross said. “There wasn’t as much tempo. There wasn’t as much of a rock edge.  We have gone from ‘We don’t want anybody under 25 or maybe even 35. But if they come along for the ride, that’s nice,’ to ‘Hey, kids, win a contest to have Hunter Hayes visit your high school.’

• “All advertisers are trying to reach certain targets.  I have a suspicion that (country radio) may be attracting 25- to 35-year-olds now at a little bit higher rate. The question is, is that at the detriment of other groups?  I think a lot of people are looking at the ratings service as an indication of the move on the format. I don’t look at the ratings service as research,” said John Dimick, vice president of programming and operations for Lincoln Financial Media, which operates 15 radio stations in Atlanta, Denver, Miami and San Diego. “I think country’s appeal continues to be mass in nature.”
• Specifically courting a younger demographic is not necessary, said Chris Huff, program director at  KSCS-FM 96.3, Dallas, because the music has broad enough appeal to pull in all age groups.  “In country music, it’s really not as segregated musically. There are people of all ages who are fans of Luke Bryan and Jason Aldean, and you have younger listeners who are fans of the older stars,” Huff said. “Just by its nature, it’s going to attract a sizable audience.”

I think we all told her basically the same thing, even though when we spoke with Jaquetta we didn't know we were engaging in what would appear in print to be a conversation.

As long as Bobby (and the rest of us) understand and adhere to the fundamentals of the culture, lifestyle and music which unite a mass audience of all ages of country fans in many areas of the world today, we'll have a very bright future.

Millenials have already impacted our media and social relationships, no matter what age group you belong to.

I will speak more about why I feel that way at the Albright & O'Malley & Brenner client seminar in Nashville.

Then, let's spend the rest of CRS week thoroughly discussing your point of view on it too.

That's what has made our format incredibly dynamic for many generations.

My Favorite "Research Email" Each Month

As radio's content imperative moves from time-worn things like the long-serving horrible-scopes, today's birthdays and anniversaries, song parodies and other Boomer benchmarks to more fresh Gen X and Gen Y info, authentic and interactive perspectives on the hottest topics right now, victory often goes to the personality who understands what the right buzz topic is today and how to make something personal, engaging and unique that he/she can brand from it.

For example: "What’s Hot…is the NFL or College Football the top pick?"

• For many this month “autumn” and “football” are synonymous…specifically, 64.4% are glued to NFL games, while 54.0% enjoy college football.
• Also hot this month? The Help was blockbuster among the majority (51.6%) and 3D TV (46.0%) might just be the gift that saves Christmas 2011. Those under 35 are digging the Nintendo 3DS (and presumably its recent price drop), while females will be integrating ankle boots and the color red in their fall wardrobes. What’s not? The stock market…’nuff said there, right?

OK, now that you know that, what do you plan to DO about it?

To start getting Phil Rist's interpretations of Big Research trend reports, follow him on Twitter or Facebook.

Driving The Trend

The growing size of the 15-29 demo cell in the coming years, Generation Y, will have more demographic muscle than any other single 25-54 cell (their grandparents - Post War Baby Boomers - will be straddling three different cells).

Five years ago, when the Boomers were all 40-54, THAT was where all the action was.

Watch 22-34 in the next few years!

Look for some new ways to speak their language in the next year.

The country demo was easily defined just five years ago. The largest and most desirable target was comprised of a single group of listeners who shared common core music preference. In the past two years, things have started changing again and driving the new artist evolution is demography.

Next year, that trend will continue.

What has emerged is a new group of non-ethnic teens and 25 to 34 year olds who just love country music.

Just as adult contemporary is now seeing a division between old and young around the age of 39 to 42, so too goes the country audience in 2011 and beyond. It's a trend that we haven't completely felt the full impact of and it even has a counter trend/bit of a backlash in the form of some new retro sounds appealing to 45+ as well, like the new Alan Jackson and Sunny Sweeney, among others.

Is country about to fragment, with two equally-sized potential audiences, one skewing younger and newer, with the other older and more familiarity and variety-based?

Historically, it has been very possible for a market leader to prevent significant fragmentation from any new competition in markets where the mainstream leader has made the adjustment to the new rules of "today's country" and aggressively practiced relationship marketing to their traditional core and social networking with the newcomers at the same time.

Will history repeat itself?

Are You A LeBron? Or A Taylor?

Generations ("turnings") and birth dates do a lot to define us. For example, both Gen-Xer LeBron James and Millennial Taylor Swift are December's children.

This year, he celebrates his 26th birthday and she will be 21.

"X" seemingly marks the spot for folks born prior to 1981. Don't ask "Y," but the defining culture changed after that year, even though a mere five years separates their ages.

• Gen X = Good of the me.
• Millennial = Good of the team?
• Or, not?

Questions are being asked about why James felt the need to make such a major media opera of his decision to leave Cleveland and move to Miami.

Maybe there's a bit of "Y" in him too, since Taylor spent an hour online with 60,000 fans and media to simply say that she has a new single coming soon.

Or, is there a little "X" in her?

One thing for sure. You won't be seeing a "LeBron Connect" social network with him anytime soon.

What about you? When were you born? What age do you target? Do you have some homework to do?