- Big Research April Executive Briefing - well worth a click for lots of thought- and content-provoking data points.
What’s Not? Big Research names Lindsay Lohan…while Debbie Harry’s [alleged] doppelganger was a hoot in The Real Housewives of Disney sketch on SNL, adults in general just aren’t ready for this comeback – and that’s no laughing matter.
What’s Hot?
Hot buttons for on air giveaways and content: USA pride, Superbowl and of course that annual resolution to lose weight and get in better shape. But: don't do it in colored jeans, a pleated skirt or trapper hat.
Big Research: Those of us on the “nice” list may be getting an extra special surprise under the tree this year, as purchase intentions for several big ticket items – including autos, computers, mobile devices, and TVs – are on the rise this year compared to last.
What one word best describes the economy? 1.6% call it "hopeful."
As radio's content imperative moves from time-worn things like the long-serving horrible-scopes, today's birthdays and anniversaries, song parodies and other Boomer benchmarks to more fresh Gen X and Gen Y info, authentic and interactive perspectives on the hottest topics right now, victory often goes to the personality who understands what the right buzz topic is today and how to make something personal, engaging and unique that he/she can brand from it.
For many this month “autumn” and “football” are synonymous…specifically, 64.4% are glued to NFL games, while 54.0% enjoy college football. 
Cookouts are what’s hot in July (according to 76.1%)…Solar Power is making its own heat among 69.5%, while the new Transformers and Harry Potter movies are also sparking interest among consumers. Young adults favor Beyonce and Shia LaBeouf, while women in general carry Clutch Handbags and are packing their one-piece swimsuits for vacation. Confidence drops in July…do consumers fear a double-dip recession?
If you, like me, are addicted to Phil Rist's monthly tracking of consumer attitude trends, here we go again:Chalk it up to being par for the course…consumers aren't going to let a good old-fashioned Twitter scandal elevate their concerns for political and national security issues. This month, fewer than one in five (18.9%) say they continue to worry, down more than a point from May (20.4%) and more than two points from a year ago (21.1%).
Perhaps due to the lack of solid improvement in the economy, practicality is creeping upward in June…nearly half (48.5%) report that they’ve become more sensible and realistic in their purchasing, up from 44.8% in May, 46.3% in Jun-10, and the highest June reading in our survey’s history.
In similar fashion, focus on the necessities climbs high in June…55.2% (also a record for June) are simply sticking to what they need when shopping, up slightly from last month (54.9%) and rising more than a point from last year (53.8%).
With the official unemployment rate inching up to 9.1% this month, consumers’ outlook for the job market darkens in June…this month, 28.1% predict there will be “more” layoffs over the next six months, rising from 26.6% 30 days ago. The majority (54.6%) contend that layoff levels will remain the same (up from 53.3% in May), while under than one in five (17.4%) expect “fewer,” down nearly three points from last month.
Despite rising pessimism for the employment outlook, those currently on a payroll seem secure about keeping their jobs…in June only 3.4% are concerned about being handed a pink slip, down ever-so-slightly from last month (3.6%).
While paying down debt (31.4%) remains the top priority for consumers, fewer are planning to do so compared to one year prior (32.5%)…instead, decreasing overall spending (30.1%) and adding to savings (26.4%) are the rising stars this month, up from 28.7% and 24.7% 365 days ago, respectively. One in five (20.6%) intends to pay with cash more often, on trend with Jun-10 (20.9%).
It’s progress, people…despite the fact that more than two in five (43.0%) currently say they disagree that they are saving enough for future needs, this figure has improved three points from a year ago (46.4%). More than one in four (26.6%) agree that their piggy banks have the heft to bear expenses in the long-term, up more than two points from Jun-10 (24.2%).
With pricing at the pump easing over the past month, fewer (77.9%) are feeling a major impact to their wallets compared to last month (80.3%), but let’s face it – that’s still A LOT of people…simply taking fewer shopping trips (45.6%) appeals to the most penny pinchers as an option to defray fuel expenses. Shopping closer to home (43.4%), hunting up bargains (42.8%), and using coupons more (40.5%) follow.
Though gas companies typically exercise their freedom to raise prices around Independence Day, consumers seem cautiously optimistic about the short-term direction of the cost of fuel…while the largest group (45.7%) still contends that pump prices will rise by the close of June, this figure is a great deal lower than sentiment recorded a month ago (74.2%). More than one in three (36.1%) say the price per gallon will remain the same, while nearly one in five (18.2%) are hoping for further declines, much brighter than in May (7.0%). Drivers are anticipating an average price of $3.91/gal by June 30th, lowering from the $4.25/gal expected at the end of May.
With rising prices in grocery stores, it seems that many consumers plan to tap into the potential of their own backyards by planting Vegetable Gardens, which tops Big Research's list of what’s hot for May (among 58.3%)...Pirates of the Caribbean: On Stranger Tides (54.3%) and Idol diva Jennifer Lopez (54.1%) aren’t far behind.
Young women also appreciate Christina Aguilera and The Voice, while men under 35 would rather opt for Thor or the NBA Playoffs.
What’s Not?
While the Colorblocking Fashion Trend is finding loyalty among ladies 18-34, most (89.3%) agree that you shouldn’t look like you got dressed in the dark.
(click for much more on attitudes about the capture of Bin Laden)
Three in five (60.3%) indicate that wearing green on March 17 is what’s hot this month…other timely favorites – Mardi Gras and March Madness – prove popular as well. Consumers prefer the Kindle eReader over Nook, while Groupon is a favorite deal-of-the-day site among women. Also according to women: 50s-era full skirts are in style among those 18-34, while the 35+ crowd feels more comfortable in Pajama Jeans®. What’s not? Eighty percent of consumers say the ladies’ high-waisted pant trend just isn’t groovy enough for contemporary closets.
Rising gas prices, the weak job market, and turmoil in Libya shake consumers’ already fragile confidence in the economy…in March fewer than one in three (29.1%) say they are very confident/confident in chances for a strong economy, declining two points from last month (31.2%) and down slightly from Mar-10 (29.8%).
While the current figure is still an improvement from Mar-09 (19.5%), consumers are feeling far less optimistic compared to pre-recession Mar-07 (46.9%
More talking points:
I think you know: I love this monthly update for fun and content, drive by listener values.
.. and autos and computers are the December '10 big ticket items on wish lists.
Those in search of Thanksgiving turkey and all of the fixings will likely head to Walmart this month, where nearly one in five (18.5%) shops most often for Groceries…Kroger (7.1%), Publix (3.9%), Safeway (2.9%), and Shoprite (2.4%) complete the top five for this category.The seasonal Toy battle has begun, with retailers hotly vying for a piece of Santa’s wallet this year (just like every other year)…for holiday 2010, look for consumers to head most often to Walmart (20.2%) and big box Toys R Us (17.9%). Target (6.2%), Kmart (1.3%), and Amazon (1.2%) follow the “Big Two” in Toys. Though with 46.0% citing “No Preference” for Toy store shopped, discounts, promotions, and availability will be key to courting a large number of consumers.
56.2% are highly anticipating Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows, Part I. Those under 35 also appreciate 3D TVs, while those 35+ are tuning in to the new Hawaii Five-O. And if any guys need a gift idea, women love the idea of cuddling up to cashmere. What’s Not? Fair Isle Sweaters…nearly 90% say this Nordic knit trend should stay on the ski slopes.
While approved by young women, don’t expect too many consumers to try the Skinny Cargo Pant trend on for size.
The oil spill in the Gulf has finally been plugged, but without any concrete evidence of an economic “recovery” (you know, like a falling unemployment rate or a robust housing market), consumer confidence flatlines in August…this month, 27.8% say they are very confident/confident in chances for a strong economy, even with July’s reading (27.9%), though remaining several points below Aug-09 (31.1%). Back in pre-recession Aug-07, confidence stood relatively strong at 43.9%. Though cleanup efforts in the Gulf continue, overall, consumers are feeling a bit more optimistic about political and national security issues…in August, fewer than one in five (19.5%) say they continue to worry, down from 21.4% in July and 22.6% in Aug-09.
It may be a hit-or-miss Back-to-School season for some retailers, as consumers send mixed signals when it comes to the economy and spending…while confidence failed to improve in August [retailers lose], fewer consumers are feeling practical [retailers benefit]. While nearly half of consumers (44.8%) still say they'll remain practical and realistic when spending, this figure has lowered 4+ points from last month (49.1%) and declined from Aug-09 as well (48.2%).
Students headed back to school may have an easier time this year convincing penny-pinching parents that they need a new netbook, e-reader, or mobile device…more than half (53.5%) still say they’re focused on necessities when shopping, but this percentage has lowered from July (58.0%) and Aug-09 (55.9%).
Personal/Financial
While confidence and the U.S. unemployment rate (remaining at 9.5%) both failed to improve over the past 30 days, consumers are feeling a bit brighter about outlook for the job market…in August, fewer than one in three (28.9%) reports there will be “more” layoffs over the next six months, down two points from July (30.8%). More than half (53.1%) feels that layoff levels will remain the “same,” up slightly from 52.2% last month, while about one in five (18.0%) hopes for “fewer,” rising a point from a month ago (17.0%).
Those concerned with becoming laid off remains stable at 3.9%, the same figure posted in June and July. The current reading remains quite an improvement over Aug-09 (7.8%).
With half (49.6%) of consumers declaring they feel that there is too much month left at the end of their paychecks “all” or “most” of the time, it should come as no surprise that paying down debt (32.8%) and decreasing overall spending (31.2%) remain the top two financial plans in August. Nearly one quarter plans to increase savings (24.3%) over the next three months, while more than one in five (21.8%) is focused on paying with cash more often.
Can talks of recovery really begin when 40.6% feel “worse off” financially compared to a year ago? (And – let’s face it – 2009 wasn’t a great year)…just over one in ten says they are better off, while 45.2% proclaim they are the same, financially speaking.
And, one final personal finance stat: more than two in five (43.5%) disagree or strongly disagree that they are saving enough to meet future needs. One-quarter (26.9%) feels they have enough money banked.
While national average pump prices have increased slightly compared to a year ago (source: AAA), consumers still seem to have eased up on the brake when it comes to spending…compared to a year ago, fewer are delaying a major purchase, reducing dining out, scaling back on vacation/travel, and spending less on groceries or apparel. That said, nearly seven in ten (68.1%) consumers overall say gas prices are still impacting other purchases.
What’s Hot…Not Much to the relief of many parents, Back-to-School shopping means the kids are headed back to class soon, making this spending "season" what’s hot for August…Netflix, Angelina Jolie, and cupcakes prove popular as well. Women of all ages are eager to see Eat Pray Love, while those 35+ are also tuning in for Hot in Cleveland. What’s not hot in Cleveland [or anywhere else]? LeBron James…76.5% say the Miami transplant isn't a slam dunk, heating up from the 64.8% who said the same back in June.
