Audiences Up, Revenues Down

A reoccurring theme that's been happening as I visit radio stations:  someone brings up morale and cites the fact that their company mandated across the board staff pay cuts after the financial collapse of 2007-2008, complaining that those reductions have still not been restored.

As a partner in a small business that has grown in that difficult environment, I always try to explain the economy and help them understand what a huge toll the downturn continues to take on everyone except the very highest earners.

The more specific and detailed I get, I see eyes glaze over.  I suppose that's why Thomas Carlyle called economics the dismal science.

For that reason, I want to congratulate Country Aircheck in their annual June print edition for again tabbing country format ratings and revenues for three pages of charts/trends for the last decade from BIA/Kelsey (click for an invitation to their latest webinar on the subject) even down to specific dollar and audience share data on 274 country radio stations and 17 group owners.

I worry that those pages, which explain it all in undeniable numbers, will be the least read section of the always-fascinating publication.

If you care about your career future and the state of American business, start with this chart but really spend some time with the numbers of stations you know a lot about.

We are not out of the woods yet and if you think it's only your radio station that is affected in this way, make a visit to your local Chamber Of Commerce, a trusted realtor or hometown bank manager.

Powerful Advice In Four Killer Quotes

You must read Russ Penuell's Country Aircheck article (click for the pdf) this week, "Boston And Beyond."

If that one sentence doesn't convince you, these will:

“The biggest challenge is determining what the most appropriate course of action is quickly. Thanks to Facebook and Twitter, the audience is becoming aware of major news events at the same time we are, not an hour later. As a result, we’ve got to react immediately.
  -- WGH/Norfolk PD Mark McKay

“Everyone at the station (it really is everyone at my station, not just programming) must know their responsibility beforehand,” King says. “Everyone who joins our staff is well aware we serve the public interest at our own expense. It’s better to do more than less every time. No one is surprised when they are called upon to go way beyond normal duties. It’s a given along the Gulf Coast where we regularly gear up for hurricane and severe storm coverage.”
  -- WYCT/Pensacola PD Kevin King

“If we ignore a news story of this urgency and magnitude, we tell our listeners we cannot be depended upon to alert them of things we know they care about."
  -- consultant and talent coach Doug Erickson

“A successful radio station serves its audience by every possible means available,”
  -- WKLB/Boston’s Mike Brophey

Once You Learn The ABC's Of "Y," Here Comes "Z"

Kudos to Russ Penuell for a terrific recap of A&O&B's client seminar session on connecting with the Millennial generation.

As I said, we really don’t need to work hard to understand millennials because almost all of our new superstars are them.  If you simply follow the trend in music and understand what they’re singing about, what their lyrics are saying and what their shows are like, you’re probably going to figure it out.

Like Blake Shelton said yesterday about his new LP Based On A True Story:   “It’s the best way to put into a song my personality, and the kind of people that I hang out with.  (the album’s lead-off track “Boys ‘Round Here” which features Pistol Annies)  This [song] is about the guys back in Tishomingo, OK and every town around this country.” 

But if you’re determined to be the you that you’ve always been and aren’t going to change, you have about three to five years to figure out that’s not going to work before your ratings figure it out for you as the audience evolves and the demographics shift.

WDAF/Kansas City PD Wes Poe and WUBE/Cincinnati PD Grover Collins are two programmers whose ratings prove they "get it."

• “We’ve all encountered people who are fake or who turn it on when they’re around us, and those people are often avoided for lack the ability to have real relationships.  We need to let our guards down and be real. For example, we use a music-quantity position that is clear and honest about what we offer listeners and we deliver on it. And we’ve been lucky enough to come out on top in the Country battle several months in the last year. When we do, we sincerely thank our listeners for putting us there and explain what they’ve helped us accomplish and what it means to us. If you’re a radio station with empty promises and fluff, your days are numbered in my opinion.  But authenticity won’t stand alone in a world with Facebook, Twitter, Pinterest, LinkedIn, Instagram, Flickr, Socialcam and more."
• “We’re rolling out a new wake-up app exclusively for the morning show that will work like an alarm clock.  They’ll set it and wake up to Chris Carr & Company. It’s just another feature for people that are not listening to regular radio first thing in the morning, but streaming more with their smartphones.  With the exception of the digital and tech aspects, I consider [millennials] to be a lot like everyone else.  They want to be entertained, they’re looking for quality content and they’re looking for things that intrigue and engage them. Our job is to keep them coming back.”

MediaPost's Jack Loechner calls it "Generational Progress" as the segmentation of the marketplace has fallen into several categories, but none so ubiquitous as age or generational similarities. He notes that William Schroer, SocialMarketing.org, hasthoroughly described population cohorts in a convenient fashion for planning purposes, including the NEXT one we need to start to think about.

Generation Z
Born: 1995-2012
Coming of Age: 2013-2020
Age in 2004: 0-9
Current Population: 23 million and growing rapidly

While we don’t know much about Gen Z yet...we know a lot about the environment they are growing up in. This highly diverse environment will make the grade schools of the next generation the most diverse ever. Higher levels of technology will make significant inroads in academics allowing for customized instruction, data mining of student histories to enable pinpoint diagnostics and remediation or accelerated achievement opportunities.

Gen Z kids will grow up with a highly sophisticated media and computer environment and will be more Internet savvy and expert than their Gen Y forerunners. They are also loving country music, so for more to come on Gen Z...stay tuned!  (.... To THEM.)
 

A&O&B Client Seminar 2013 Quotes

Thanks to Country Aircheck for being on hand for our event and for taking such copious notes:  "Beyond revealing their annual (client only ppt) Roadmap Study, the Albright & O’Malley & Brenner Pre-CRS Client Seminar touched on everything from being active, engaged and relevant with your audience via social media, digital tools and station branding, to tips for talent and what Gen Y will mean to our industry in the coming years."

• Of 6,272 Country P1 participants from 50 markets in the U.S. and Canada, 70% report being satisfied with the format. Of those who aren’t, song-repetition and commercials were top reasons. Country listeners are increasingly tech savvy, with 75% reporting using some sort of social media every day (up from 66% last year), and 31% report having an internet connection of some sort in their cars.
   
• Rick Barker says stations too often use digital tools to “push” information to the audience without “engaging” them. “You have to offer value,” he says. Among his examples: teaming with new artists you can’t yet include in your playlist who are willing to offer free song downloads via the station website and social media. Attached sponsorships can help drive NTR.
   
• “Content is key,” says Mike Stern. “Be a friend and a companion. Be a filter, give them something they can steal to use themselves, and focus on things that make you react.”
   
• Steve Zielonka encourages programmers to “always be collecting data (ABCD)” and use it to engage the audience. “You can’t just send out irrelevant information anymore. They’ll delete you, they’ll mark you as spam and they’ll block you. There are always negative consequences.” Use your tools to conduct surveys, for example. “Ask, ‘Are you a Toby Keith fan? Here’s a chance for you to sing on stage with him.’ Then follow-up with other Toby Keith-related
  contests. When you send a targeted email, you’ll see your open rates double and triple.”
  
  
• Newcap Radio VP/Programming and Brand Like A Rockstar author Steve Jones says, “Brands are feelings that live in the heart of the customer. Jimmy Buffett’s biggest song wasn’t that big of a hit. ‘Margaritaville’ peaked at No. 7. But at his shows, people are painting their bodies, getting drunk and having a great time because he sells the experience of being a beach-bum.” Make it a point to understand your enemy and let them help define your brand. “Walmart’s slogan ‘Save Money, Live Better’ makes it all about saving money,” Jones explains. “Then Target comes in with ‘Expect More, Pay Less,’ basically saying, ‘You’re above that crap they’re selling at Walmart.’”
       
• Grab a (client only) copy of "The Gen X Versus Gen Y Conflict" (pdf) my presentation about the population shift ahead of us. Gen Y is estimated at 78 million, much larger than the 40-50 million-strong Gen X preceding it, and it sees the world quite differently. It’s a group that Country programmers will need to adjust to."

Passion

Bob Pittman is telling Wall Street in his usual cheer-leading style that it's time for "a new life for radio." 

Meanwhile, CBS' Les Moonves is bullish on radio as-is, it seems.  And, their stock price certainly makes it look like he knows what he's talking about.

There's no sense taking sides in the battle of publicly-traded companies in their efforts to tout their stocks.  That's a very profitable business in itself, and reinvention or not, it's not radio to me.

The great thing about talking to our clients, local radio people, every day is that I never seem to have time to dwell on that.

Instead, I am reminded every day how passionate worker bees in thousands of communities are, as they work with passionate creative artists, music promotion executives, advertisers and our equally passionate listeners.

For example, just today....

In telling Country Aircheck's Chuck Aly about next Friday’s Taylor Swift Worldwide Radio Remote (10/26), Big Machine's John Zarling said of Swift: 

“She’ll spend six hours on the 26th talking to radio. She’s spent 20 hours in the last two days doing national radio interviews. And there have been countless media days around the world in the last month. She works harder than anybody to make all this come together.  It just shows Taylor’s conviction and continued engagement with radio, and how much she believes in radio as a way to reach fans.”

KIRO/Seattle's Linda Thomas just blogged

"How could my dream job get any better? It just did.  Here's the funny thing about a new dream coming true. It's exciting and it's frightening.  Creating unique stories for Bonneville Seattle's traditional and new media platforms is my full-time job. A little fear is a good thing. All the interesting stuff happens when we step outside our comfort zones."

Catch me tomorrow and I'll have even more fresh, new stories about what happens when passionate content creators engage listeners.

If you're inside a radio station and not just a corporate office somewhere, I'll bet you can do the same.

Grab some passion and spread it around!

Was I Wrong?

The instant I heard about it, I felt pretty certain that Kenny and Tim would be featured 2012 artists on the next "I Heart Radio" music festival in Las Vegas.

It seems that I wasn't alone, as Country Aircheck's RJ Curtis turned to Clear Channel SVP/Programming Clay Hunnicutt to ask what was behind the company's unprecedented heavy first days' airplay of “Feel Like A Rock Star” and what CC received in exchange for what sounded like another "Artist Integration Project".

It looks like I was wrong.

Hunnicutt called it "more of a world premiere event with elements of artist integration. One of the key components of an AIP is utilizing unsold commercial inventory to build the brand of an artist. The plan for Chesney/McGraw, anchored around 28 straight hourly airings of the song didn’t include commercial inventory. That contrasts with the AIP run for Madonna earlier this year. With her, we had billboards in the markets, promoting and counting down to the world premiere of her video.”

Hunnicutt says he was not involved in that promotion. “It’s more than just saying the album is on sale now; it’s about telling the bigger story of the project and the artist. We all have an interest in creating hit songs and more core artists. It helps everybody: listeners, radio, labels, publishers, artists and touring. It was one of those times where everybody was excited about it, and that’s when things can really take off. The song wasn’t exclusive to us; everybody had it at the same time. We didn’t beat anybody to the proverbial punch and we were clear about that, but it goes back to whoever has the best idea wins. We sprung into action after that.”

What benefits does Clear Channel reap after utilizing its airwaves and other platforms to further an artist’s career?

Hunnicutt told Curtis on Monday: “I’ll sum it up in a simple way. A better listening experience for our listeners on the air and creating a moment. There are never any conditions on these, no quid pro quo. This is who we should be – contributing to a greater good when we have the opportunity to do it. We all benefit when there’s more music that is known, familiar and helping to support Tim- and Kenny-level acts.”

I think I'll wait until Clear Channel announces the artist lineup later this year for "I Heart Radio Festival" this year before fully admitting my skepticism was completely unfounded. Meanwhile, if you compete with a Clear Channel station and feel like you "own" reporting status and thus access to big artists exclusively in your market, it's time to step up your game in the same way too, and that is a good thing for all of us.

As long as Clear Channel and Cumulus don't abuse the power given by their footprint in the format at the expense of the rest of country radio, several thousand individual comparatively mom- and pop-owned stations which don't have the power to act together to monopolize promotional airplay in the same way as the Goliaths potentially can.

Let's all watch their actions extra carefully in the coming year.

With unequalled size must come unprecedented additional responsibility.

A&O "Hearts" Country Aircheck On Valentine's Day

We loved CA reporter Jeff Green's article today, "A&O Seminar: Rules Of Engagement."

Everybody in Country radio is doing social media these days, but how much does it really matter whether a station and its personalities are actively involved with Facebook and Twitter? Evidently, a great deal. Findings will be unveiled by DMRInteractive COO Andrew Curran as part of a new Arbitron/DMR report, one of the many sessions of Albright & O’Malley’s Pre-CRS Client Seminar Feb. 21 in Nashville.

“If we look at the high-performing stations, they will have a larger percentage of their cume in Facebook than the average station,” A&O’s Jaye Albright says. “Andrew will point out how they’ve done several campaigns to increase the level of engagement on social networking, and it’s had a payoff in cume growth because it’s so viral. The truth is that we’ve just scratched the surface of what we can do to grow our cume and our usage and engagement using social media.”

A digital report card for the 72 leading Country stations in the top 50 markets is among the new presentations to be delivered during the event, which is free to anyone in markets non-competitive to A&O clients. The aim is a scientific approach to addressing criticisms leveled by CRS 2011 keynoter Shelly Palmer that most radio websites “suck.”

A&O partner Becky Brenner explains, “I examined each station’s overall web appearance and functionality, listener rewards program, email database, texting activity, presence on Facebook and Twitter, and what they do with new music on their web pages.” While promising some “surprising” insights, Brenner says, “I was thrilled to see that all 72 stations are active on Facebook. Their total reach is almost 1 million listeners. That’s a good number considering that most of these stations have only been active on Facebook within the last two years.”

Also new this year will be a team from BDS to present case studies and insights on differentiating your station musically, while industry executive and Vanderbilt adjunct professor Tim DuBois will share his ideas on branding and separating station product beyond music. WQHK/Ft. Wayne, IN executives will furnish specifics on listener-driven, revenue-generating new media promotions that can be deployed immediately. Also, talent coaches Randy Lane and Cliff Dumas will discuss training tools and techniques on developing “authentic storylines behind your character” and how to evolve them using social media.

The seminar kick offs with A&O’s seventh annual Roadmap Study of radio listeners’ perceptions on music, the state of Country radio and related topics including the impact of Pandora, Spotify,
Rhapsody and Slacker. Emphasizing a theme of “branding and engagement,” partner Michael O’Malley promises “a content-rich afternoon with takeaways for talent, programmers, promotions and sales.” Sponsor Broken Bow/Stoney Creek will present a performance by Dustin Lynch.

To receive an invitation including location details, click on this link:

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Three? Two? One? Zero?

As it has become increasingly obvious that Clear Channel and Cumulus have both been rolling out standardized, duplicate playlists across an increasing number of their very largest market stations, I've been speculating where that leaves the trade charts today, hoping that it will open opportunity for all of those highly successful stations to somehow still be represented - as networks, perhaps - while also opening up the chance for additional stations to be monitored and report as well.

In response to that, yesterday, Scott Fuller added this comment...

I'm sure you may disagree Jaye, but I personally feel that the gradual dismantling of the 'chart system' would be the best thing to happen to country radio moving forward.

Of course, I use charts to verify music decisions I make.

But ask the question: 'what if they weren't there tomorrow?' We still have a log to schedule, full of what the audience wants to hear and separates us from the other guys.

It might force we radio programmers to do something that's deeply fallen from our daily routine: caring what our own audience has to say. Sure, we'd still play the A+ from Nashville, but I'll bet we'd give a lot more spins to the B- in our own backyard over Nashville's third or fourth tier.

And just imagine the thousands of different 'types' of country radio 'mini formats' that would follow in their wake. Call letters with character once again.

I don't hate charts, and I'm not saying tomorrow, but it is starting to look like the way the business is going in general.

I certainly understand Scott's point of view and it's tempting to agree totally with it, but I still feel that the country format needs multiple trades and as many more reporters as possible.

The shrinking size of the monitored panel seems to me to be one of the factors hurting the speed that new music by unknown artists can move. This week's Billboard Country Update proves statistically that the hits still find a way to cut through and endure, a testament to the weekly efforts of Wade Jesson, Lon Helton, David Ross and their country chart teams' concerted efforts to be judicious.

The rules of the whole system, which admittedly can sometimes be exploited by knowledgeable promoters simply because they are so clear-cut, are well-known. Though no one likes to be the umpire, we think they are generally applied by in an aboveboard, even-handed manner.

Today, it is these forces that have created the need for independent consulting firms to do research, gather objective data from stations and listeners, keep at arms-length from the record promotion business and offer dependable, objective guidance on music to radio based solidly in listener reaction.

Frankly, the consulting business is GREAT right now partially because of these very actions that consolidated groups are taking in the face of incredible promotional pressure. Their competition is increasingly looking for believable help in separating the honest hits from the hype (of which there is plenty).

Country stations want and need trustworthy data more than ever, and we work hard to maintain high ethical standards in the information we provide to our clients.

A&O thinks the future of the formats and radio broadcasters we serve depends on it.

The Toughest Jobs In Music City

This time, as noted in my previous missive, of potentially smaller reporting panels for BDS and Mediabase charts as two major groups move to standardize many more monitored stations' music should be a major opportunity for a reliable and, hopefully, larger sample of more stations that could be looked on by the industry as THE chart.

I certainly don't question any chart editor's right to add and drop reporters, but at a time of great opportunity for the country format, it would be a shame if the convergence of a smaller number of major group programmers controlling an increasing number of reporting playlists, homogenizing the top of the national charts and a larger portion of new reporters coming from the ranks of "easy add" stations preferred by the promotion community made the charts less trustworthy.

Over the years, large groups have diminished the impact of "independents" on their playlists after signing consent decrees, yet admitting no wrongdoing. Payola/plugola laws remain in effect, of course, and due to human nature, require careful and constant vigilance.

Rumors out of Nashville make me worry that the major trades are wrestling with all of this, contemplating cutting their panel of reporters based on a very, very, very troubling criteria --- the songs they report (or do not report)?

A very disturbing possibility, which would harm the format, I believe: if you don't play unfamiliar new music by unproven new artists that is being pushed by certain companies who are financially supportive of the trades your reporting status may be in jeopardy!

My fear (and maybe that's all it is - groundless fear) is that if chart editors and their friends in the music business don't like your playlist decisions, they will drop you as a reporter.

This is hypocrisy, ethical bankruptcy, dishonesty and damned frightening!

It is not news that the trades are subject to powerful pressures, of course. BUT - dropping stations because they don't like the songs the station reports is in essence telling us, "If there is no one at the station who can be influenced, we don't care what they are playing."

Trades should reflect what is being played by successful, winning radio stations. Period. They should NOT dictate how those songs are selected.

In tomorrow's post, let's put ourselves into the shoes of Lon Helton, Wade Jesson and David Ross and ponder what we'd do if we were in their position right now.

Charting The Country Format's 2012 Musical Relevance

Almost everyone in the radio and records industries decries the need for trade charts as a means of determining the difference between "hit" and "STIFF."

If you have local research, you've no doubt become accustomed to finding that there are a surprising number of tunes which "lost their bullet and stiffed" that continue to TEST very well in research.

The listeners who love these songs simply don't know about trade charts. However, since it's difficult to test things that people are unfamiliar with, at some point we need to make educated guesses as to which of the many songs that come in each week will be hits. Good charts can be helpful in deciding which songs and artists have the highest consensus probability of becoming a hit nationally.

Personally, I define a "hit" as a song that gets sufficient play on a national basis to chart at least top 15 and achieves a minimum of 65% positive and less than 20% negative research scores in auditorium testing and callout. Even releases which end up at the lower end of those metrics may not make it to my recurrent or gold categories, even after fairly substantial "current" spins.

I think of that airplay as a risky investment that went badly.

When charts accurately reflect what selective, local market-oriented stations who listen to the new music are playing, most of the time, those charts indicate songs which may test well many weeks before research scores become available .

What if a trade publication picked which stations report to their chart - NOT based on accurate reporting of real airplay - BUT on which songs a station did or did not report? Would you consider that chart helpful or harmful on your station's efforts to determine what REAL hits are going to be?

With stories circulating now that Clear Channel's identical Premium Choice and Cumulus' Atlanta-recommended 13-20 approved currents playlists are being mandated at more and more major stations, it seems sensible for trade chart editors to adjust their reporting panels.

Hopefully, any changes will still reflect what has become "syndicated/network" spins of course but also open the prospect of being a reporter and monitored by many more radio stations.

Today, nine "networks" and 236 stations for Mediabase and 132 monitored by BDS have become one of the primary sources of chart information for the nearly 3,000 country stations in North America.

Though errors and glitches do occur, monitored airplay is generally acknowledged as unimpeachable in its accurate reporting of what those country radio stations in 125 markets actually play.

As A&O sees it, if you want to know what a hit WAS last week, check Billboard's chart. Review Country Aircheck each week for a good determination of which of the many current hits being promoted to most of those same radio stations THIS week are ranked highest. Watch it occur in real time, day to day on BDS and Mediabase.

Looking at both can be an excellent guide to what radio is doing in the largest U.S. and Canadian markets with music.

Since, today, most new music breaks from the largest markets DOWN to the smaller ones because all label promotion and artist visits to radio only occur in those places, one might ask: do I really need any other charts?

Music Row hopes that you do. By only selecting as its reporters stations which agree to expose more new music than the typical monitored station in a competitive situation does they hope to create a definable difference. Problem is, of course, is that many songs and artists chart in the 30's and 40's of that chart and never go anywhere else.

This time of smaller reporting panels for BDS and Mediabase charts should be a major opportunity for a reliable and larger sample of stations that could be looked on by the industry as THE chart.

In the following post, I'll ruminate more about this and remind you of some painful lessons from the past.

Well, That Didn't Work

A year ago when Country Aircheck asked subscribers to vote for in their "Power 31" balloting, I requested folks not vote for me and ended up in the "power rotation" part of the list, so this year I kept quiet about it and hoped that my plea to vote "the country radio audience" to the list might naturally perk up after my recommendation last year.

I must admit that it's an honor to make the list and it's gratifying to know that A&O, since our music recommendations to clients are 100% listener-driven, is seen by so many as influential by programmers.

It's an honor to rank #5 on the list, just behind Clear Channel's Doug Montgomery.

Congrats, #1 Scott Borchetta, #2 Mike Dungan and #3 Luke Lewis for topping an impressive list.

Those three guys fight each week for a #1, so I'm very happy to see them top the list.

I'm betting I join Doug in saying that we'll take our positions on the list with humility and always try to lobby on behalf of the listener on country radio playlists.

That's radio's job #1.

Have You Updated Your Artist Separation Policy Lately?

These five acts account for 36% of Mediabase's Top 100 Power Gold hits:

Kenny Chesney - 10
Tim McGraw - 8
Toby Keith - 7
Rascal Flatts - 6
Keith Urban - 5

Many of us allow "super star" names to play more than once per hour, but if you're rotating the wrong ones too heavily, that may be contributing to listener repetition complaints.

See today's Country Aircheck for the complete list.

Even better, base your local list of "A, B and C acts" and rotational rules on your local listeners' tastes, not just national charts.

Please Don't Vote For Me

It's a powerful myth among Nashville's music business community that certain 'brokers' control country radio playlists, acting as gate-keepers, holding back otherwise promising careers of talented people based on the majesty of their mere whims.

Thus, these hopefuls and their minions travel the yellow brick road, asking for an audience with as many of these "rulers" as possible and once in their presence utter the words "what will it take?" or "if you need anything, just let me know."

Hundreds of thousands of dollars per project are spent on these quests, and people being what they are, some individuals and executives start to see themselves as these deluded aspirants erroneously view them.

Corruption results.

So, please do me a favor.

If you subscribe to Country Aircheck and want to elect someone a member of Power 31, don't vote for me. Let's stop perpetuating this myth.

Even better, write a candidate in on the ballot: the country radio listener.

Let's get our priorities in order this year.

The Verbs Of PPM, More Passive Than Active

Someone (or everyone?) at Country Aircheck must be a sports fan, given their propensity of reaching for very colorful verbs each time a new monthly metered or quarterly diary book comes out as they describe the country station trends.

The problem: with PPM sample sizes about one-third the size of the diary survey samples, the "ups," "flats," and "downs" from survey to survey in PPM, except for one or two very high cume stations, are quite often fractional at most, making trends about as logical many times as the chart countdown wobbles Lon, Kix, Bob, Lorianne & Charlie et al have to cope with every weekend (“up to number 36 from last week’s number 37, but down from three weeks’ ago’s number 34..”).

In diaries, with 48 completely separate weekly samples in the continuous measurement markets, it’s normally possible to trend four or five surveys and make sense (trending up, staying flat or trending downward) of at least three or four of the books.

This is especially true if you average the four books of each year and look at four book averages over several years. A little more of a stretch in two book per year markets, but still possible.

How many years will it take before we are able to credibly do that with PPM data?

I guess I shouldn’t complain since all of the Albright & O’Malley clients with PPM in April were up as the majority of country stations "sagged."

However, ESPN and Fox Sports are able to use active verbs like “smashed,” “vanquished” and “blew out,” but in PPM, the often-very-diplomatic choice of verbs in CA last week indicates that we’re not quite “there” yet when it comes to the consistency of the metered panels.

For example, Arbitron PPM “verb ratings” used by Lon, Chuck, Jeff and their reporters for the period of April 1-28 for all country stations do seem to say that the start of baseball season, placating minority broadcasters with extra careful placement of black and Hispanic households, the gulf oil spill (or something!) was unkind to us as a format:

11 (positive)

climbed
advanced
tied its best share
up
edged ahead
nudged forward
inched up
advanced
moved up
climbing
stepped within a share

7 (neutral)

was steady
edged
held even
was level
held steady
held firm
held

26 (ways to nicely deliver bad news)

was down but moved up (yes, really = share down/rank up)
slipped
moved
declined
shed a tenth
decreased
declined
moved
was off
dipped
slowed
was down
stepped back
declined
shifted
slipped
was down
declined
fell
decreased
was off
moving
declined
eased
dipped
decreased

8-10% of PPM homes move in/out of the sample each month and very few of these moves were that big, so perhaps that could have been it. After all, it only takes it one heavy user family who loves your station coming into the sample to make ratings day a party (but get ready for a wake when that same home inevitably leaves the panel between seven months and more than two years later).

And, of course, families will be heading away to summer vacations in the next few weeks, perhaps making that percentage of panelists in the sample for the next 90 days slip, slow, step back, decline, ease, etc.

So, can the verbs of PPM really describe the moves in popularity of radio stations? Or are they just the vagaries of a much-too-small sample?

How Long Should We Give 'Em?

Country Aircheck's chart doesn't list the number of weeks songs have been on their airplay ranker, but Billboard does, and I suspect that number may be very instructive.

Luke Bryan's "Do I" took 37 weeks to peak at #5 right after the New Year and remained in the top ten, trending from #5 to #7 last week, it's 38th chart week.

Country Aircheck no longer counts it as a current and instead makes it their second-ranking "Top Recurrent."

How many weeks does it take for a song to get to the point that it's no longer "current?"

Aside from Bryan, there are only three additional songs that have been charting for close to 30 weeks, Gary Allan/Today (alive for 29 weeks last week), Sarah Buxton/Outside My Window and Jason Michael Carroll/Hurry Home (28).

The oldest current ranking between #31 and 40 has been on the chart for 21 weeks (Lee Brice/Love Like Crazy) still had a bullet last week and between #41 and #50, 23 weeks (Mallory Hope/Love Lives On) had no bullet.

Is it that when your NAME is "Hope" you don't need a bullet to keep a few stations spinning your music for coming up on six months?

Real What?

Is the banner atop the full page ad in both today's Country Aircheck and Billboard's new Country Update for Luke Bryan's "Do I" implying that some of the so-called "research" being touted by the very competitive Music City promotion people is not "real?"

Who would have thunk it? (smile)

The Most Important Words Of Advice Of The Week

From Country Aircheck today and the landmark CMA country consumer study:

"Be on guard against a potential backlash and genre dilution related to new, more pop-oriented country. The key is to nurture a new artist’s persona as a legitimate country performer with personal ties and a commitment to the essence of the genre. This authenticity also applies to DJs, as the study found strong resistance among core fans against the “crossover DJ” who has switched from another format to Country."

A&O tip: every quarter hour of your music schedule either refutes this listener complaint or supports it, as does every content break by your personalities. If you don't know what I mean by this statement, we need to chat now.

Numbers That Shape Our Lives, 19 and 23

Country Aircheck this week performed a valuable service by printing the names and contact info of radio and music industry professionals who are currently "seeking employment" in the place in their weekly sheet where the airplay charts normally go. (click to enlarge the image)

With rumors of more cutbacks coming at radio, I feel bad for the unlucky 19 people who are looking for their next radio gig at the 2,024 country stations in the U.S. But, those 23 Nashville-based music industry have only a handful of labels to pitch future employment at.

My prescription: read "What Color Is Your Parachute" annually.

Yes, I have a good job and, yes, business is excellent for us right now, thank you, but no one can listen to today's economic news without singing at least a line from Alan Jay Lerner's "There But For You."