When It Comes To Cross Media Usage, Keep Your Eyes On Canada

Since BBM Canada makes use of the PPM to measure both major market TV and radio usage, Canada's media ratings company is in an excellent position to compare apples to apples in all forms of encoded audio and video usage.

BBM has three initiatives underway:

• BBM started a test last August to determine whether or not the PPM radio meter panel can support Internet streaming measurement (i.e., separating Internet streaming from live broadcast currently reported together) and to look into the volume of Internet streaming usage by radio broadcaster audiences.
  
  Twenty-two Toronto member stations started participating in a test late last summer, separately encoding their online radio stream.  Now, 25 Toronto radio stations are encoding both their terrestrial and streaming programming.
  
  Then, in November eighteen stations in Vancouver Central (Metro) Area were added to the test and as of December, sixteen stations have participated in Montreal Central (Franco and Anglo). 
  
  Individual station-level data have been presented to all participating broadcasters in each market by BBM, but the data is not yet currency for public release.
  
  However, the early headline is quite promising, boding well for the future.
  
  The combination of over the air PPM usage average minute audience and encoded streaming appears to increase radio's total week 12+ audience by about 3%.  OF course, there is great variability in online streaming between stations.
  
  BBM told its member stations this week that overall the highest percentage of online listening occurs during the workday at 5%.
  
  
• The second initiative is to report radio tuning and television viewing in a single database. 
  
  BBM’s Cross Media Database was tested in the past few months, and will be released in May with data back to September 2013.  Quarterly releases will occur until August, and then Cross Media will be released monthly.
  
  Cross Media Data is not currency as it is based on Central Areas, and Television currency is based on Extended Markets, but this single source data should have many other uses.  Data will be at the respondent level so users will have a lot of flexibility looking at tuning between radio and television from the same sample.
  
  
• The third initiative, Non Linear Measurement, is in a proof of concept test.  This is designed to report media that is accessed from servers.  The initial test is for Video on Demand, but this technology to extend PPM to user-controlled access will have many other uses in radio and television.   Television broadcasters have installed the software based encoders and will insert the PPM codes as the material is loaded to their servers.  Data should be available for industry assessment mid-2014.  BBM is the only measurement organization able to measure Non Linear consumption in its panel.  BBM already reports all live streaming, so addition of non-linear will give users a full view of consumption of their programming regardless of the platform. 

These initiatives extend BBM measurement across media, and much deeper into media now reported.  It should be clear in a few months how these datasets can be used.

Organizations south of the 49th parallel working in this same area have a lot to learn from our Canadian friends right now.

The (PPM) Show Must Go On

With Calgary's downtown flooding (which actually happened two weeks ago) still scuttling some "Stampede" events as recently as this week, it's going to be very interesting to see how the disaster affected radio and TV usage when BBM's PPM monthly data comes out for clients only next month.

BBM reported in the midst of the torrent "closely monitoring our panels in Alberta to assess any impact on the ratings data.  At this time, BBM only has overnight preliminary metrics to be relied on for any insights.  Certainly these events will have affected the lives of many individuals on our panels.  At this time we are seeing minor reductions in panelists’ participation.  Both the Calgary EM and the Calgary Central panel are performing within their respective targets."

They have observed in-tab samples on overnight data that represent approximately a 4-8% reduction in comparison to previous weekend levels and state that they are confident that there is no one age/sex demographic underrepresented at this time.

The chart below illustrates the differences observed on performance metrics flood weekend, versus the previous weekend.  Fridays were included in this weekend comparison as the displacing events began.

BBM is currently contacting broadcaster members in the Calgary market to ensure they have captured any disruptions to station encoding during this period since a number of major station studios are downtown.

Watch this space for what you know will be the only good news to come out of this disaster - media heroically covered it non-stop (notwithstanding one talker's rant about it) and listening/viewing levels will again show the impact and power of the old, reliable "reach media" during times of community need and disaster.

Can We Finally Talk About More Consistently Engaging Content?

First, please read Billboard.biz's Ross on Radio column today, Can We Finally Talk About Spotload? by Sean Ross.   Don't read another word here until you fully understand Sean's point.

Under the new thinking, shorter listening stretches became almost a self-fulfilling prophecy. The brief moment in which a top 40’s power rotation could  be 45 minutes has mostly passed. But there’s still an emphasis on instant gratification—e.g., all-news stations with traffic every four minutes, even if it means sending people on their way sooner.  But how many more occasions can you get from listeners if the three places where they might have consumed radio are down to one, in some cases? “At home” is diminished by the competition from morning TV and, increasingly, by the lack of a radio at home. “At work,” the usage that lends itself to long listening stretches, is threatened by other choices that offer even more continuous music and fewer interruptions.

Don't think that just because you read that paragraph it's really now OK to read on.

No.

I want you to click on that link above and read his entire piece, so that you are fully aware that I agree with him as far as he goes but also believe he's totally missing something more obvious and even more important.

To make my point, I want to share this graphic being used in presentations all over Canada on PPM listening lengths by Catherine KellyVice-President/Western Region for BBM.

It's a view of life at breakfast time at Catherine's house.  She undocks her meter, turns on her radio and starts to get the family ready to face their days.

One of her kids is slow to get out of bed, so she has to go up to his room at least twice before he comes down ready to go.  The dog needs a walk.  She's busy and moving all over the house.

In about 45 minutes her PPM listening is broken into four sessions totalling 39 minutes.

The radio stations she's using could stop for commercials whenever they want.  They can tease as enticingly as they desire.  They could cut their commercial loads.  They could hyper-spin her favorite songs, and none of those things will impact the reasons she's leaving the radio and coming back to it.

It's about what she's doing, not about what we are doing.

Here's the deal on the “9-10 Minute” myth of the "average" occasion length, as Kelly explains:

• Much has been made about the 10 minute attention span of radio listeners – apparently brought about by insights from PPM.

• When looking at number of listening events and average session length, it is consistent to see a session length of between 9 and 11 minutes.

• Keep in mind, these numbers are averages – they include people who listen for 30 minutes and people who listen for 3 minutes.

In fact, here's the math:  if you break session length into quantiles of usage, the session for the average "heavy user" is 35 minutes.

Meanwhile, if you calculate the "mode," the most frequently-occurring number in that nine-ten minute average is actually 2:30.  Two and a half minutes.

That's why moving the average is so difficult, not because we play too many bad songs or too many commercials.

Sure, it makes your PPM ratings better if you play the best songs and minimize interruptions for the switching audience, which absolutely changes stations while they are in the car each time anything they don't like comes on, but MScore, AirplayIntel and other PPM-based music research is based on tracking only the "switching" audience, those folks who switch from one station to another.

That's only half of the total audience.

The other half isn't tracked by that approach because their listening goes from "you" to "off" and from "off" to "you."

Those are your most loyal listeners and yet the PPM-based music research doesn't measure their usage.

Rather than focusing so much on eliminating reasons why people change stations, it's just as important to figure out what things you do bring those people back and do those things more often.

I Wonder What Cluster This Guy Belongs To?

Earlier this week, BBM Canada announced implementation of geodemographic classification of its PPM households using an aggregated version of the PRIZM consumer segmentation system from Environics Analytics. 

These categories, which are based on the characteristics of residents living in each individual geographic area, use geodemographics and psychographics to provide insights into the behaviour of Canadian consumers.

The system classifies all PPM households into one of 14 segments based on the location of each PPM household.  The classification of households will be reported as a demographic category through currently available respondent-level data analysis software and will be accessible to all BBM Canada members that subscribe to the television or radio PPM service.  

These demographic classifications were introduced into the overnight TV data this week (starting 3/11).  For radio, the classifications will be added effective with the April 4, 2013 data release. 

Right now, country radio seems to be doing very well in PPM measurement after a rocky start in many markets, so I suppose there will be some who say "don't TOUCH my sample," but as Arbitron continues to weight its sample by ten factors, this addition of geo- and psycho- targeting in Canada is going to be fascinating to study very carefully as it rolls out.

Political targeting has demonstrated how people tend to live in "tribes" of folks similar to them geographically and so with PPM's smaller samples who remain in the panel for long periods of time, representing every category possible is a step in the right direction.

It's too early to tell if this move will improve samples in that way, but at least the ability to run analyses based on them sounds promising to me.

Let's watch and see how many of the 66 Prizm lifestyle types the sample is able to accurately represent in proportion to the actual population in each market where this is being implemented.  That will start to indicate just how large each local sample should ideally be, at least, and perhaps even demonstrate why share compression is so typical in PPM numbers.

Thanks to BBM's visionaries for providing us with new numbers to hold their feet to the fire with.

Country Is Hot

Two weeks ago, I shared an advance look at Arbitron's Radio Today 2012.

• Arbitron Country Radio 2012, State By State
• Listening and Lifestyle Profiles of American Radio
• Country's National Audience Composition
• Country Radio Today - 2012

And, now, all of BBM's PPM and diary market data from Fall 2012 is out in Canada too and - though the country format is not either the country's most-programmed format nor #1 in audience shares as it is in the USA, there's still cause for celebration, at #3 12+ and #5 25-54, up from both the large-markets only Spring survey and also the Fall, which includes the smaller markets as well.

Look out, AC and Hot AC, we're gaining on you!

How Big Do Samples Need To Be?

The best way to be sure that a survey sample is reliable:  do repeated measurements consistently produce the same results?

For example, in Arbitron market #67 Fresno - where thankfully both owners still subscribe to ARB so we can at least get some idea from the real world - the top country station (Peak's KSKS) has gone from #3 in 12+ monthly trend cume rank in May 2011 to #5 to #2 to #3 to #3 to #8 to #7 to #4 to #3 to #5 to #6 to #8 to #3 in May 2012.

The second tier country station (Clear Channel's KHGE) wobbled even more over the same period, from #21 to #11 to #7, then #16, #14, #21, #16, #10, #15, #18, #12, #17, #9.

I chose 12+ cume rankers to trend, since those should be the largest, most-stable numbers to track, less susceptible to weighting-driven TSL/AQH wobbles and yet it's still quite obvious that something is unstable about even those numbers.

•  Which are the outliers in the stats and which are reality? 
•  Is a year enough time to allow to see?  
•  How many years' averages will it take to know for certain?

Pity the poor media buyer and radio seller trying to make sense of them.

My conclusion, though I am not sure Arbitron (or BBM) would agree:  the Fresno sample isn't large enough, given the complexities of ethnic/non-ethnic sample balance, let alone Spanish only/bilingual/English only language and cell phone/land line home phone preference trends.

Nielsen just announced that it plans to double its TV diary and quadruple it's metered panel samples.

You'd think that would make a huge difference, and yet it may not since the TV ratings company in the USA did the same thing only five years ago with the goal of tripling it by 2011 and yet they seem to "need" to do it again now and state that they plan to move as fast to do so as their clients want.

Nielsen has competition which is clearly driving the changes; Arbitron does not. 

Same in Canada, where BBM is the only option for broadcasters, since they "own" it.

If North American radio wants to know how big samples must be to be consistent and credible in our markets + how fast our ratings supplier can get there, we're going to have to keep the pressure on ARB and BBM, with high hopes they care as much as their clients do, to make changes in spite that.

"Presumptions Are Holding Us Back"

Catherine Kelly, VP/Western Region for BBM Canada made that statement recently during a day-long session with the Lower Mainland media sales and buying community which was laden with thought-provoking trends and stats.

"One of the largest values with PPM data, yet largely unexplored, is the ability to really get to know your audience and how people use your media. In Radio, we’re still dealing with dayparts that were defined by a methodology designed to measure it…rather than using our new methodology to help us design better stations, campaigns and advertising.

"It is unrealistic to look at old behaviour models and expect that they will continue to apply. 18-24 is the one demo that BBM receives the most questions and concerns about – whether the market or station is measured by diary or PPM. Every research company has issues with A18-24.

"PPM has these:

• Docking – I’m out late and I don’t dock til’ tomorrow
• Females – I couldn’t find a way to wear it with my dress
• CONTACT!!!! – reaching these people is IMPOSSIBLE
• And of course…..“Uhm…I (lost it, dropped it in the toilet/pool/shower/lake, had it but can’t find it, forgot it, left it in my friends car…..)”

"This is Reality…

"The 18-24 year olds THEMSELVES drive variability in audience numbers. They go in and out of the sample quicker and more often than older more ‘stable’ panelists.

"During these years, an 18-24 can experience one or more of these, perhaps several times, all within a year:

• Leave to go to school
• Then come back to parents house for summer
• Leave again
• Get a job, quit a job
• Buy a car, write off a car, etc.

"Nevermind what they can do over the course of 7 years..

"It is often assumed that radio listening and television viewing is a daily habit with slight variability over time. However, when you look at minute, hourly, daily, weekly and monthly data for 18-24 year olds, its clear that variability is the norm for this age group.

"Other factors that contribute: Co-Listening/Co-Viewing. Don’t forget that PPM captures ‘exposure’ and that means there are instances of co-listening or viewing, that are going to occur.

"This is particularly true during ‘holiday’ periods where the likelihood of an A18-24 being in a co-viewing/listening environment increases.

"Market events affect 18-24 year olds and drive variability in audience numbers. (psst..this is true of all demos!)

"Consider the following, especially when examining this group:

• What time of year is it?
• Did this happen last year?
• What could be happening in their lives?
• Market?
• Other media?"


Some folks will say that it must be "be nice to a ratings company day" at Breakfast Blog as I recap this, since I more tend more often to tweek our associates in the media research business given my innate and deeply ingrained sympathies with our programmers, talent and sellers.

However, anyone who shares an abode with an 18-24, a teen or a 25-34 knows that what she's telling us - like it or not - has considerable inconvenient truth in it.

It's time to learn new selling strategies.

Your Cume Needs To Be 30% Higher

Coleman compared a full year of audience data on 13 "High Performance Stations" -- so designated because their Adults 18-49 audience shares were significantly larger than the shares of competing stations -- to 68 other stations in Calgary, Edmonton, Montreal, Toronto and Vancouver using InfoSys+ radio software from BBM Analytics.

Among other findings, this comparison revealed that:

• The average Daily Cume Rating of the High Performance Stations was 130% higher than the average for the non-High Performance Stations
• High Performance Stations achieved slightly higher Time Spent Listening levels, primarily because they generate an average of 5.6 listening sessions per day, 15% more than the 4.9 average number of daily listening sessions generated by non-High Performance Stations
• At 69.9%, the proportion of listening High Performance Stations generate out-of-home is higher than the 62.9% of listening generated out-of-home by non-High Performance stations

"Our findings are similar to those we uncovered in a similar analysis of American PPM data in 2009" said Coleman Insights VP Doug Hyde, who authored the study. "They support the idea that those radio stations that are well-known, have clearly-defined positions and have brand attributes that listeners want to affiliate with are the most likely to perform well under PPM measurement."

I find it sadly ironic that BBM Analytics' blog still includes a link to a very nice concept "Creating Passionate Users" since the very radio formats with the most passionate users are the ones which tend to do worst in PPM measurement due to the too-small sample sizes where the only number they seem to be able to track reliably is 6+ cume. You'd think that the ratings firms who do the measurement would understand that by now, but it seems that they do not. (3/26: be sure to read the comments, where I am called to task for stretching a blog link into a point at least one step too far and I apologize to BBM for it, then try to explain why I am so worried about this issue)

Yes, at a time when media fragmentation is the megatrend, it would be very nice if radio's audience measurement system wasn't crushing radio stations with small, but loyal and reponsive audiences, but that's simply not the way it is. Listeners look to radio for more diversity and variety now and yet PPM's tiny (compared to what would be ideal) panel samples reward just the opposite.

Forget about "passionate users" until PPM samples double or triple. Until then, it's all about cume, cume, cume.

Take Aspirin Before Reading

There's a strong possibility that this is going to hurt your head.

Back in the Diary Days our fight was for bigger Average Quarter Hours. Now, on Planet PPM, technology has completely changed how BBM and ARB measure tuning.

Thanks to the always inquisitive PD of JRfm-The Peak/Vancouver Gord Eno, A&O recently was conveyed an excellent explanation from BBM on the technology of the PPM device:

"We now measure everything in fifteen second segments. Yes, seconds. It takes keeping a listener fifteen seconds for us to be in the game. If we win three out of the four fifteen second segments we win that minute. If we get two out of four, the station that wins the first fifteen seconds wins the minute."

Yikes, talk about micromanaging our content!

If you've read much that I have blogged here, I bet you've already learned you have to grab them in the first seven seconds.

Now, add to that. You must also hold onto them for at least three 15 second periods inside every minute.

Technically, you need the last best "code" in the 15 seconds to be ascribed the first 15 seconds.

That last best code could come in the first second or the 15th second. If you're not familiar with code qualities and what this does to the assignment of the 15 seconds to the last best code, contact your BBM or ARB rep who can lessen your need for aspirin as you contemplate these technical realities.

First, of course, if we donʼt keep them for the first fifteen seconds weʼre not even in the game.

Really, you only need to have the last best code in each 15 seconds, they don’t have to have stayed for the full 30.

But, it takes three 15 minute assignments of the last best code to outright “win” the full 60 seconds – and those three 15 second assignments don’t have to be consecutive, for example: first 15, station CAAA has last best code, Second 15, station CBBB has last best code, Third 15, station CAAA has last best code, and Fourth 15, station CAAA has last best code – minute goes to station CAAA.

Plus, we need them to stay for thirty seconds just to be in a tie. But it takes forty five seconds to win that minute. Then the battle begins all over again for the next minute.

Most minutes wins.

Eno joked with the BBM representative who offered the insights that the battlefield has moved from quarter hours to quarter minutes.

The BBM rep's response was that things hadn’t really changed, and the focus as always should be on making better radio, because better radio gets better numbers.

Agreed, but knowing the mechanics of PPM helps us understand the ʻscienceʼ and how/when the radio consumerʼs impatience affects measurement.

Another revelation: the PPM code is not a constant stream.

Because the code likes to hide in the content the code stream is variable. When there is music, the code flows along nicely. When there are gaps, such as spoken word, the code will embed itself behind any audio whatsoever, music, talk, random ambient noise will even encode.

Now, hereʼs the biggie. If there is four seconds of dead air there is no code.

The solution? Donʼt allow dead air.

Dead air (provided your dead air lasts for more than 15 seconds) means no code.

No code. No measurement. No measurement means weʼre kicked off the fifteen second battlefield and weʼre not even in the fight.

To be totally factual, it only takes the last best code of the 15 second period.

It’s possible for there to be 4 different “last best codes” in each 15 seconds. Your code could come in as the ‘last best code’ on the 5th, 9th, 12th or even the 15th second with audio.

Take two panelists and call me in the morning.

Trend: Away From Home Is Up; At Home Listening Slips

Sampling and discovery happens in the car (cume), but turning that usage into ultra core time spent listening/hours tuned involves getting them to start with you very early in their day and then taking the radio station to work with them.

Source: BBM/Canada's 2010-2011 Radio Data Book

Why Working On At Work Listening .. WORKS.

Even 7-Midnight gets "at work" listening! If you do nights and you don't have it, your share falls on average by 10%.


.. but HALF of midday's share of audience is driven by it.


Tip: make your radio station, regardless of the format, as at work-friendly as possible, from early morning until nights.

Source: BBM/Canada's 2010-2011 Radio Data Book

You Can't Win Younger Demos Without Winning At Work

Country ranks #3 in "at home" listening in Canada, but is #7 "at work."


To beat the national averages, a station must do twice "the average" in at work listening.


Thanks to BBM/Canada's 2010-2011 Radio Data Book for a helpful lesson in where the majority of our listening is coming from and going to.

A&O can point to many country format clients across Canada who get 25-30% of their total hours from at work listening, which is far above the national average for diary markets and driving superior heavy user listening and 25-44 growth.

It can't be done, however, by simply swimming with the prevailing currents. It takes strategy and consistent tactics, making us very proud of their outstanding achievement.

What's Happening To Country Radio In Canada?

What can ANY country radio station learn from these national averages, gleaned (as in stats shared last week) from BBM/Canada's 2010-2011 Radio Data Book?

Fortunately, A&O's Canadian country clients have been having a very good 2010-2011, a fact that looks even better when compared to national format shares from all diary survey markets, which are not pretty:

(click the chart to enlarge it) Ranking #4 nationally overall still isn't too shabby, of course, and many other formats would like to trade places with country, but Top 40 and Classic Hits were up at Country, Hot AC and Classic Rock's expense through last fall and the BBM national Spring 2011 country format 12+ diary market share continued the drop, to an 8.5.

The population demographic movements offer one helpful clue - as the format's 18-24 share is better than 25-34 and even 35-49 nationally and many listeners slid into the 55+ age groups, but there's more to it than just that.

Even more interesting are the locations where those trends happened and I'll share that info - which provides a clue as to what our clients in Canada have been doing to out-perform the trends with you tomorrow.

Your Most Important Listeners

More from BBM/Canada's 2010-2011 Radio Data Book:


One-fifth of all participants in the ratings survey account for more than half of all listening. Four of ten contribute 80% of the total hours spent with radio.

Each time time you encounter one of your station's - or your competition's - heaviest users in person, on the phone, by snail mail or online, make certain they know that you know how important they are to your success.

Should ARB And BBM Ask Everyone To "Friend" Them?

Overcoming privacy concerns makes including the fast-growing number of households which can only be reached using a cell phone number an equally-rapidly growing problem for all researchers.

On Friday, at first, I thought when I saw this story that Facebook provides an inexpensive and immediate method for radio's survey research companies to reach them where ever they are 24/7 instead of playing a never-ending game of catchup that started three years ago.

"We are not able to pinpoint when, where or how this meme started," said a Facebook spokesperson in an email to ABC News. "We became aware of the confusion earlier this week and immediately started informing press and people on Facebook that this is not a new feature but one that has existed for some time." The company added an assurance at the top of people's Phonebook Contacts page: "Only you can see your contacts." And it posted a message on its own Facebook page: "Rumors claiming that your phone contacts are visible to everyone on Facebook are false," the company said. "Our Contacts list, formerly called Phonebook, has existed for a long time. The phone numbers listed there were either added by your friends themselves and made visible to you, or you have previously synced your phone contacts with Facebook. Just like on your phone, only you can see these numbers."

Then, the blowback started:

By Friday afternoon, nearly 35,000 people had "liked" the post -- and another 17,000 had replied with comments. Some were gibberish, but many were vociferous complaints. "I don't understand what business any online company has snatching private contact information from my phone," wrote one user. "Where was the request to grant permission to sync those phone numbers with Facebook?" wrote another. "Disgusting behaviour, truly disgusting." There is a way to turn off the feature, which you can find at https://www.facebook.com/contact_importer/remove_uploads.php?r=%2Fphonebook. But to many users, the damage was done. Users and privacy advocates have complained in the past that Facebook introduced features and assumed users wanted to enable them, forcing them to feel their way through their account settings and opt out. "I think you need to notify us of these changes... period," wrote a user this morning. "It is an invasion of privacy, you should have permission to do this. What if someones profile gets hacked or phished?"

No wonder it's such a challenge to find a way to do any kind of telephone-based research today!

As Vision Critical/Toronto's Jeff Vidler blogged several weeks ago:

We just completed a strategic study in a major Canadian market where 31% of 18-49 year-old radio listeners said they lived in a cellphone-only household (sample size: 1,000, using a market representative online sample). And, despite BBM claims to the contrary, CPO households varied sharply by format. From 43% among the cume for an alternative-leaning station to 35% for the cume of the market-leading CHR station and 29% for that of a local Hot AC. Yes, age plays a role, but notably, only 3 years separated the average age of the cume listeners to the three stations. (Note: the proportion of cellphone-only households in Canada is generally considered lower than it is in most Western countries.)

Clearly, this issue isn't going away!

Another Win For Radio: The Science Of Ad Placement

Radio-Info's Daniel Anstandig reports today that a new study by Casale Media, a digital display ad network, affirms that “reach and frequency” works online the same way it does in radio or TV.
They recently analyzed a random sample of two billion ad impressions from Q1 2011 across their display ad network and found that online ads are most effective when they are placed in the top of the page and first in order.

.. which reminded me of a BBM/Canada presentation earlier this year by Alex Petrilli from TiVO who gave some results from their StopWatch research which measures second by second viewing of the US PVR audience.

This has shown the importance of the 1^st in pod position in terms of retaining the audience during a commercial "break."

Other strategies have proved successful in preventing the audience from hitting the fast forward button, particularly “promercials” such as the recent campaign from American Express using the cast from Glee.
This brought to mind the PPM research using actual usage data (What Happens When the Spots Come On) from Arbitron, interpreted by Coleman:

The fact that radio's cume is always going up throughout the listening day as PPM proves, means that no matter when your commercial runs on the radio, it's on center stage.

Track This Number, Especially If You're In A PPM Market

The average household size in diary sample markets across both the USA and Canada has trended almost exactly the same as the census average, roughly 2.6 persons per home for a very long time.

Over the five decades I have been studying diary samples, there have been individual weeks during BBM or ARB survey periods when the number of persons per household for the total sample and individual radio stations have wobbled wildly away from that average, but when tracking multiple weekly samples for eight to twelve weeks it almost always trends back up or down to the norm.

Not so in PPM markets, where one very large household who loves (or hates!) your radio station can stay in the sample for 24 months or longer. That small number of high occupant households has the potential to help or harm your audience estimates for several years, giving new importance to fully understanding reliability in statistical terms.

If your station hits new, never before attained in diaries, high numbers in PPM:

1. Celebrate. Enjoy. Savor it. You have a station that some people use a lot and that's great.
2. Track the average number of people per ethnic and non-ethnic household in the total sample and also in your station's panelists week by week.
3. Troll for more homes just like them in your marketing efforts.
4. Educate your owner and manager. Hope that they understand that Newton's laws also apply to stats as well as physical objects. What goes up goes down as well.

A Firm Grasp On The Obvious

FACTOID #1: 15% of radio diaries have been filled out in advance by the time the diary week is supposed to begin. This certainly underscores the importance of being top of mind in unaided recall.

FACTOID #2: 0% of PPM listening is reported even a second before it's been DONE.

In either case, it pays to become so ingrained in your regular user's habit patterns that they know in advance that they plan to use you several times tomorrow.

Are you prepping daily ways to achieve that?

Have You Sent The Holiday Cards To Your Database Yet?

A RELATIONSHIP MARKETING PLAN

Here is a step-by-step method of maintaining contact with your core using data base marketing, while constantly building new cume for the radio station and locating P-2 and P-3 listeners and converting them to P-1 (loyal) listeners. If you're not wrapping yours for 2010 up right now, resolve to do it in 2011.

1. Buy a metro survey area (from the same supplier of lists ARB/BBM uses) list of households with listed telephones in your target demo.

2, Telemarket to at least 10% of that data base during each survey. Call in the evening. Invite folks to try the station tomorrow morning. Make an appointment to call them again tomorrow night to ask their opinions. Follow up the second contact with a thank you letter from a member of station management. Add all who agree to sample to your station "frequent listener" data base.

3. Mail a letter to your entire data base from the station manager or program director at least once per year that includes a response card. See if they are still listening. If they ARE, keep them in the data base. They are are NOT, target them for telemarketing or a direct marketing campaign related to the reasons they no longer listen. Capture an email address, of course, and hook them into your social networking too, but don't stop using snail mail for these tactics until ARB and BBM do.

4. Send a station newsletter to the data base at least once per survey period. Have it arrive during week 1 of each survey period. Keep the editorial content fun, use lots of pictures of air and music personalities, but don't forget to sell the key benefits of listening to your station too! Sure, by email is cheaper, but aren't you trying to impact the ratings survey?

5. If you are in a Fall ratings market, you should have sent your Christmas cards (that contain a yearly calendar with a picture that will be saved and displayed throughout the coming year) signed by your personalities to the data base in weeks 8 or 9 of the survey.

6. Gather birth date information from all data base names. Send a birthday card (with a coupon for a cake, etc) hand signed by all air personalities to 1/12 of the data base each month.

7. If you are in a Winter survey market, send a Valentines Day card (with a coupon for flowers or candy) to all women in the data base during week 4.

8. Gather "at work" listening information and the names of friends who listen. Do mailings with silent contesting to listeners rewarding them for listening at work. Mention friends names on the air and pay off for data base people who "tell a friend" about the station.

9 Work to build a data base - emails, social networks and also snail mail too - that equals at least 20% of your projected cume goal. Recognize that at least one-fifth of the names and addresses will become outdated each year. Keep your data base up to date by constantly using it to generate "value added" promotion ideas that can be done off the air (consuming no units, yet building promotional revenue).

10. Send "thank you gifts" to your data base: refrigerator magnets, bumper stickers, key chains, etc.

These aren't tactics. Together, done in a timed, disciplined basis, it's a strategy that will pay off in better ratings in 2011. Growth isn't cheap. But, a plan like this isn't that expensive either, especially given the potential pay off.

Stable Numbers For Who?

It’s seemingly time to learn a new step in the PPM dance as Arbitron implements new panelist expiration rules (that now look a lot more like Canada’s BBM has been doing all along), promising less “bounce” in the estimates from month to month.

Obviously, if you’re the top station in a category, that’s a good thing. But, if you’re hoping to improve your share, waiting longer for a shot at new panelists may not be quite so attractive.

At present 46 U.S. and Canadian markets have country radio stations being measured by PPM.

Let’s look closely at one, where there are three radio stations basically tied for #1 6+ within four tenths of a share of each other. The next tier is two stations within another 0.4 of a share of each other, roughly tied for #2 rank. Below them in rank is three more stations, more-or-less all tied for #3, just 0.2 shares away from each other. Under them there are eight stations within 0.7 of a share apart from each other, statistically tied for "#4."

This market has two very competitive country stations, with each one's cume just 3% away from each other.

Yet, one of the two is in the “tied for #3” ranker grouping. The other has a 6+ share 25% lower, amidst the “tied for #4” bunch, meaning that a buyer either really has to want to purchase two country stations OR be willing to go at least nine to seventeen stations deep to buy them - in spite of the fact that the two are separated in “share” by less than one point.

Drilling down to what gives the country leader in this market that 25% edge, there are 14 100+ quarter hour panelists which use one of the two country stations and each one is the favorite station of seven of them. The difference between them is that the top station gets about 25% more “time spent exposed” (TSE) from their heavy users than the lower-ranked one.

A few things that could change the ratings for either or both:

1. A shift in the panel of one household.
2. The lower rated station plugs the leaks in their panelists’ usage and improves their TSE and the other one fails to respond in kind (can you say commercial free hours?)
3. One or both of them greatly improves their programming, drawing more cume
4. One of them gives up on country and changes format, so that the other one gets all 14 country ultra core panelists and suddenly becomes the market’s #1 radio station.
5. If the month happened to be September, one of the two stations’ panelists went away for a Labor Day holiday, while the other station’s panelists had to work that weekend.
6. A heavy user of one of the two stations got the flu and stayed home for a few days.

I admire ARB for listening to their clients and attempting to minimize monthly wobbles, but more of these possibilities come from real life from from sampling issues.

And, if I rank in that “tied for #4” eight this month, I am actually hoping for a nicer bounce next time!