Is radio a "dying medium for music?"

This email hit my in box today:

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Hi Jaye,

In his latest Lefsetz Letter, that relentlessly negative industry blogger, Bob Lefsetz, made the following “prediction” about the future of terrestrial radio, which he called “ a dying medium for music.”

Here’s what he said:

“The stations are overleveraged, or already in bankruptcy, and they're cutting back infrastructure and banking on 20-plus minutes of commercials per hour. You're supposed to double down, innovate in a crisis. But terrestrial radio has done just the opposite. It's dying, and it will never come back. In a world where no one experiences a commercial they don't want to, do you really expect people to listen to what you tell them and be sold to every third minute? You're dreaming.

“Terrestrial radio will be about news and talk, those elements that are immediate,” he continues.

“Music's been recorded previously, there's no urgency to sit through the b.s. to hear what you want to.”

I’m reaching out to a handful of smart people to get a rebuttal or response to Bob’s opinion, and was hoping you might have a few minutes to make a short comment between now and Wednesday for a story in Stark Country/Radio-Info.com.

Any thoughts would be much appreciated.

Best regards,

Phyllis Stark
Executive Editor, Country Music
Radio-Info.com/Stark Country

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Phyllis,

Lucky for me, you don't even need to be a smart person to debunk this line of thinking. Facts trump baseless assertions every time.

In just the last eight weeks here are a few other statements Bob made:

* "The number one thing a fan wants? To be able to go backstage."
* "Music used to be regional."
* "Most of what the major labels create is not fully desirable. It’s made to run up the radio chart, not to do live business."
* "The younger generation has embraced Led Zeppelin, can they ever embrace the Moody Blues? I think so."
* "The hardest thing to do in this business is find a hit act."
* "The Black Eyed Peas tour is a stiff."
* "Cadillac driver? Must be an oldster."
* "Rock and roll doesn’t work on TV."

A provocateur requires no facts to back up his outrageous and over-the-top statements. He's just trying to elicit a response. He is a verbal terrorist, setting off written explosions in hopes someone will panic. Lefsetz, in my experience, never likes anything that's mass appeal or popular. The best way to make him disappear is to ignore him.

Arbitron's 2009 Edition of "Radio Today" has 109 pages of facts and data which demonstrates the continuing story for radio overall is its remarkable, enduring reach. Far more than 90% of all consumers aged 12 and older listen to the radio each week—a higher penetration than television, magazines, newspapers or the Internet. PPM-measured data does show average quarter-hour (AQH) ratings were lower than what would otherwise have been reported using an all-Diary methodology. At-home AQH ratings in Fall 2008 were 22.2% below those in Spring 2007, while away-from-home figures were 18.8% lower. These differences should not be regarded as actual declines or losses in listening, but as a shift in measurement methodology.

Lefsetz may see that as signs of impending death, but I sure do not. Despite availability of numerous media alternatives, radio’s weekly reach declined only modestly in the past several years,from 94.9% in Spring 2001, when the iPod®was introduced, to 91% in Fall ’08, according to the latest ARB national ratings data.

Nielsen, The Media Audit, Edison Research, Bridge Ratings, Eastlan/FMR, BBM and many other researchers and numerous studies around the world corroborate these trends. Music radio tends to drive even stronger usage in metered measurement than it has in diaries.

The CMA' s 2nd Annual Study of Country Music Consumers, which will be made public at CRS-41 is just the latest in many, many proofs that country music radio remains - by far - the top source of music discovery for country music's Prime Prospects.

Allow me to add my voice to the chorus of folks crying "B-S" to Lefsetz's screed. The possibility of his predictions coming true anytime in the next decade is about as good as running into John Hogan, Fareed and the Dickey Family at Jerry Delcolliano's "Future of Media" seminar.

-J.

Jaye Albright, Consulting Partner,
Albright & O'Malley Country Consulting/RadioIQ

PS: do YOU have something to say to me, Phyllis or Bob Lefsetz? Please post a comment below!

The Undeniable Reba

She sent her fans an email Saturday giving them credit for her record-breaking three weeks in a row at #1 on the spin charts (and, today, it looks like she could possibly even get a 4th, given the fact that most countdown shows start by playing last week's #1 song again, helping her maintain a 200 total weekly spin advantage over the other contenders for the top spot on Monday morning's national "advances" on next week's rankers).

Jason Aldean has the fastest-growing top five song, judged by increased spins in the last seven days, but it still appears that Dierks Bentley and Tim McGraw will be #2 and #3, giving #4 (as of this morning) Aldean next week's charts to be their battleground for #1.

As always, there are many moving parts like that to the timing of any success, but it's still very classy to share the achievement with her local and longtime street team members publicly instead of her very aggressive promotion people, (who no doubt will also get rewarded for their achievements, but more privately).

We could all learn a lot about humility, customer service, personal reinvention to stay relevant, relationships, branding, quality and relatability of product as well as very well-executed competitive marketing - driven by a desire to do what it takes to stay on top - from this very savvy superstar.

Being On A Mission From Radio

Much has been written about creating mission statements for teams.

Here are a few tests to use as you plan for 2010 and rethink your organization's purposes and goals.

It is stated in a way that (click the links for examples):

* Expresses a higher purpose or ultimate meaning of the organization
* Gives direction to daily work
* Encompasses all tasks and members
* Is clear enough to be understood by all members
* Is brief enough to be remembered by all members
* Is not necessarily measurable

A&O is always delighted to work with your staff to help define what listeners expect from you, your strengths, weaknesses, threats, opportunities and what commitments you're prepared to make to exemplify and personify your core values.

Dave Van Dyke: Pandora TSL Drop Is Due To Boredom

The newer the Pandora consumer the higher the satisfaction level. Over time, though, the satisfaction level is affected by "fatigue or boredom." Make no mistake that even those Pandora users who have been using the service for more than three years, retain high levels of satisfaction, but responses for the service being "Just OK", "Somewhat Dissatisfied" and "Very Dissatisfied" increase the longer the user experiences the service.

The Bridge Ratings President blogs that this is "The Decade of Radio Cannibalism."

Terrestial radio has it problems, but - fortunately for us in 2010 - a "bored" audience isn't one of them (at least not yet).

Lets resolve to improve our content and entertainment value to keep today's loyal listeners engaged.

Blogs I Can't Top And Won't Even Try

Today, I want to send you to a pair of great blogs which make important points, worthy of your attention:

Greater Media Chairman & CEO Peter Smyth: In radio, every first quarter is a battle to prime the revenue pump, but this one stands out as the most critical Q1 in years.

Tom Kelly and Paul Kelly: In Kelly Music Research’s national telephone survey, only 4% of music station P1’s exhibit Extreme Fan behavior. 96% of those polled can be described as Normal Fans.

As in all forms of research: it is important to carefully-design the questions but also to fully understand to whom you are asking them!

Weird Theory: Cledus T. Judd And Scott Lindy Are The Same Person

Think about it. Have you ever seen the two of them in the same place (i.e., when one left Atlanta last year, the other one arrived)

2010 Ad Trends (A Radio Adaptation)

Verizon Wireless' current commercial, in which the carrier touts its 3G cellular coverage as better than rival AT&T's

Suzanne Vranica’s Wall Street Journal short list:

1. Rough-and-tumble sales pitches taking direct aim at competitors
2. Other companies will show their softer sides. In the bleak aftermath of the recession, many marketers think consumers will respond to brands they perceive as giving back to the community
3. Fewer actors and more animated characters (cheaper to produce)
4. Social-network personalities make their way to mass-media stardom
5. TV viewers see more split screens that give them a glimpse of what is going on behind the scenes of a show while a commercial runs on the other side of the split (hoping to avoid TIVO ad skipping)
6. Mobile advertising (maybe for real this year?)
7. Fewer big-name celebrities and athletes pitching for brands, thanks to Tiger Woods
8. Consumers volunteer their personal information in return for getting the ads they want to see

Radio, fortunately, has faced "ad skipping" for decades, so we "should" be the experts at maintaining audiences through our commercials, which are in the spotlight on center stage, giving listeners only three choices: listen through them, change stations or turn the radio off.

Better, more creative commercials build higher listening levels, get measurably better results and make it possible to charge higher rates.

There is a radio resolution for 2010!

Taylor Swift = High Burn

Small wonder; big exposure!

We All Know About Hot Zips

.. but, these tight-budget days, the smartest among us are finding ways to USE what they know, by putting it into action.

For the last twenty years (at least), everyone has been building, maintaining, growing and mailing/phoning an active listener (hopefully, not limited only to contest winners, but also including the kind of folks who enjoy voicing their opinions on the radio they hear) data base.

OK. What now?

If you are planning to do direct mail in the next survey, ask your list supplier or printer to do a postal cell analysis of that database of yours and start mailing to lists NOT JUST FROM HOT ZIPS BUT FROM YOUR HOT POSTAL CELLS (zip + 4) within those hot zips as demonstrated by listening patterns in your listener database.

Arbitron has been block coding their data since fall of 1994, but because of the sample size of Arbitron in most hot zips, using ARB diaries to try to locate the hottest postal cells within your hot zip areas takes four or more rating periods in diary markets and, perhaps, several years in PPM metros with their smaller sample sizes.

Your data base is probably five, ten, fifteen or more times larger than the entire ARB sample right now, making it a much more accurate source of this statistical information than tracking hot zips from one diary review.

In Canada, due to stricter privacy laws, there is only one way I know to gather this info: your own database of listeners who have given you permission to engage in a relationship with them.

Even better, these are ALL your listeners. So, since there is no waste, there is a very high likelihood that the folks who live in the same postal cells as the majority of the names and addresses in your data base are excellent prospects for conversion marketing.

Since they probably know that most of their neighbors are already listening to your station and since they share many of the same lifestyle patterns, they'll probably be quite responsive when you give them a solid reason to do so as well by mail or by phone.

A single zip code may contain 40,000 or more addresses. But, after studying the hottest postal cells (zip + 4) represented in your database, you may find that there are specific areas within such a zip code where a mailing of fewer than 10,000 homes could have the same (or better) impact as a full market mailer.

Postal cell information that you can develop now from your own in-house database will most likely still be more useful and accurate! So, what are you waiting for?

In one situation we know about this past Fall where the technique of carefully cloning a list of prospects for a direct mail campaign was born out of the hottest postal cells in the station's active listener data base, average quarter hours have soared.

This was accomplished with a mailing of only 100,000 homes located in key postal cells of the station within this metro area of nearly 4,000,000 people. More amazingly, the response rate of this direct mail piece (aside from affecting the station's ratings very positively) was 22%!

After mailing just 100,000 households, this station added 22,000 names to its database in only eight weeks.

Of course, now that they have increased the size of that original database, the next "postal cell analysis" they perform on their database for their next direct mail or telemarketing blitz will be even more accurate in pinpointing and targeting ONLY the areas where they have the very best prospects for building cume and TSL.

Facebook is nice. Email is good. Tweets are OK. But, until radio ratings companies stop placing their samples in homes, there’s no better use of your time than building, maintaining, studying and refining your strategies to find the geographic hot pockets where your heaviest users reside and work.

If you’ve been marketing radio for very long, you know this.

"Knowing" is not the same thing as DOING, is it?

BIA: TV Revenues Back To 90's Levels For Three More Years

Normally, this blog wouldn't quote a press release on television, but this one hits home, since you know it applies to radio, more or less, as well:

The television industry will end 2009 with lower than expected revenues of $15.6 billion, a 22.4 percent decline from 2008, in a year that was dominated by shifting advertising budgets and a poor economy, according to BIA/Kelsey, a strategic and financial advisor to media companies in the local marketplace.

The significant drop also begins a leveling-off of television industry revenues to the mid-$10 billion level — not seen since the mid-1990s — through at least 2013, as reported in the fourth edition of BIA/Kelsey’s “Investing In Television® Market Report.”

BIA/Kelsey sees 2010 revenues for the television industry as increasing slightly to $16.1 billion, of which $130 million in additional revenues will come from online advertising. The company notes that online income brought the industry $518 million in 2009, a 12 percent increase over last year’s $463 million. BIA/Kelsey predicts continuous annual double-digit revenue growth from online channels, such as Internet and mobile, through 2013, when the industry should reach the $1 billion mark.

The report also shows that while most markets did poorly in 2009, others will manage to post positive numbers in 2010, primarily due to significant state and local elections.

A Lesson In How To Get A TV Station To Mention Your Name And Call Letters

Peak Broadcasting's WOW Country 104.3 morning guy Don Jarrett not only got some amazing TV coverage, but won recognition of Idaho NewsChannel7 as their "7's Hero" award for an amazing accomplishment, as he lived on the street for 104 hours (click to watch the video).

Ya wonder if the job application he filled out when Don returned from Salt Lake City to work at WOW 104.3 contained anything about tolerance to cold.

His next stunt? Make-A-Wish Foundation's January 1 "Polar Bear Challenge!"

Need A Job? Network! (The Unemployment Rates Are 10%, $99, and $199)

In an unprecedented effort to assist those unemployed in the Country radio industry, the Country Radio Broadcasters Board of Directors has approved its first ever $99 Unemployment Rate for CRS 2010, held Feb. 24-26, 2010.

“Our deeply discounted Unemployment Rate serves two purposes,” says CRB President Becky Brenner. “First, it gives those without work a financial break so that they can still afford to attend CRS 2010, and second, it provides them with the tools and networking opportunities to help them in their job search.”

The Unemployment Rate provides attendees access to educational events only, including more than 20 seminars, panels and exhibits. Notable agenda item highlights included in the discounted rate are the CMA Research Presentation, Dave Ramsey’s Keynote Address, Bob Rosner’s Workplace 911 panel and the current-events Hot Topic panel. Tickets to the Music City Jam™, New Faces of Country Music Show® and daily luncheons must be purchased separately.

The Unemployment Rate is currently available through Jan. 31, 2010. Contact Kristen McCrary at 615-327-4487 or Kristen@CRB.org for registration materials. Proof of unemployment will be subject to verification by CRB, Inc.

The Regular Rate of $599 is now in effect through Jan. 31, 2010, for all others planning to attend CRS 2010.

The 35th Annual Conclave Learning Conference July 15-17, 2010!

Meanwhile, The Conclave is also offering a break for folks who plan ahead: earlybird tuition, just $199. Use the GANG OF 10 IN 2010 discount to save even more. Reserve a Doubletree Park Place Hotel room for just $99!

Asking The Right Question

I have been seeing this movie a lot in the last year: station is disappointed in its initial PPM rank, so they commission a major radio research company to do a perceptual to see what's wrong.

The research comes back that the station is very healthy and pronounces that the station's brand is strong but the problem is "execution."

Could this be because the researcher is asking the same questions in the same ways which were so predictive of success in diaries, weekly cume and favorite station + importance of parameters + key image ownership?

Shouldn't we be asking in the major markets where PPM is going to be currency in 2010 about daily cume? Daily occasions? Key personalities and programming elements which drive listeners to use a station more days per week and more times per day?

In the U.S., Arbitron is planning a first quarter update of PD Advantage web and promises new reports to be added. Hopefully, one of them will be a day by day report of how many panelists use each competitive station each day of the week and how many times per day for each daypart as well as how long the exposure is for each of them.

Sadly, from my perspective, Canada's BBM is another story completely.

Their InfoSys software (a report from it is pictured) was developed in Spain (for TV, not radio). I have as yet to encounter a Canadian programmer who even fully understands how it works, let alone how to begin to extract info like ARB's current Vital Signs report, which has been available to both diary and PPM stations in PD Advantage software for years now, let alone anything more sophisticated to assist programmers in understanding what they need to do to grow their shares.

Hopefully, BBM includes a New Years resolution to look very hard at the Programmer's Package ARB provides online each month and come up with something as helpful.

Also, would it be wise to reconsider the decision to show only "average minute audience," rather than "average quarter hour," the standard for comparison we've all used since radio audience measurement was created? Not only is BBM comparing apples to oranges in its diary reports vs PPM studies, but audience sizes appear to go down. Who thought that would be a good idea?

We all have a lot to gain if radio programmers can quickly understand the differences between ratings driven by memorablity and behavioral research.

I wish ARB and BBM would both step up their efforts to help stations figure out what's going on and what they need to do about it.

So far, I'd say that ARB is running faster in the right direction than either BBM or radio's longtime perceptual researchers across North America, but we all have plenty of catching up to do if we expect advertisers to see us as "programming experts," let alone our ratings as credible and useful.

How Well Do You Know Your Own Community?

Mark Hill, PD at Cat Country/Billings reminded me this week of this website which takes a "picture" of each market in the USA (click to check it out).

It covers population, education level, neighborhood information, median age info, employment diversification, crime, etc. It also helps you compare information between markets.

Research your town and see how much you know about the place where you live!

December What’s Hot/Not

Big Research says (click on the link to see the entire report and on each chart to enlarge it) it looks like consumers are looking ahead to their New Year’s resolutions and the Wii Fit was declared what’s hot among 68.8% of respondents.

Smart phones (66.4%) and homemade Christmas gifts (62.4%) also rated well with consumers.

Those over 35 are more likely to pick up a copy of Going Rogue by Sarah Palin or Susan Boyle’s CD, while Guitar Hero is a top pick among those under 35.

What’s not?

Like the Snuggies we surveyed before them, men are particularly not fond of women’s leggings…but what do men know about women’s fashions, right?

I'd Bet PPM Punishes This Content

"I'll have another news update at 7:45 this morning, now let's see how we're doin' this Friday morning on the freeways..." (:10 sponsor mention) "Good Friday mornin' to ya...." (small talk with the host, then..) "there are no accidents or problems on the roads today, everything's moving smoothly right now..."

If you don't know why this might be a tune-out, please give me a call (206-498-6261) or an email and I'll open your eyes to the concept of engaging a listener, never wasting their time.

TK and Garth Rock The House - On Two Sides Of The World

The Nobel Prize ceremonies are pretty high-brow events...so who'd a thunk that the awards dinner and concert afterwards would turn into such a cool party, one that included Toby Keith singing Rap with superstar actor, Will Smith?

Toby performed "God Love Her," "Cryin' For Me (Wayman's Song)" and "American Ride," for the 8,000 folks at the concert. Toby, his wife, Tricia, plus his manager and publicist attended the ceremony to watch President Obama receive his Nobel Peace Prize.

It was at the after-party for guests and artists only, when Toby met actor Will Smith, Wyclef Jean, and Natasha Beningfield for what turned into a jamming party for all the artists and guests. Check out this link to catch Toby rapping with the best of them.

By now everybody knows that Garth Brooks came out of retirement (click to watch his pre-show interview with KMLE's Tim and Willy) for a 5 year contract to perform weekend shows at the Wynn Resorts Encore Theater in Las Vegas, on the condition that he could return home on a private jet to continue parenting his daughters on a full time basis as he's done for the last 10 years. The new gig began last Friday and Saturday as fans showed up from thousands of miles away to be as "one-on-one intimate" with Garth Brooks and his talent as you can be without having him singing in your living room.

The big question was, could the star whose show was so big and broad it entertained a million people in New York City's Central Park..be just as compelling by himself, with acoustic guitar and microphone in a venue that held about a thousand people?

The answer, a resounding yes!

Anybody that saw his show over the years experienced moments when he and his guitar would take over the show for a few songs,... but, could Garth and his guitar for an hour and a half, be as riveting and joyful?

The press was invited for the 8 and 10 o clock shows on Saturday night and a song or two into the first show, the answer was quick to come...he can do this, after all, he's Garth Brooks! His voice is still so strong and in tune, so powerful in the joy and emotion that made him great, you don't miss the big production on is records or the great band he had with him on the road.

Garth took the stage dressed in a hooded sweat shirt, baseball cap, jeans and hiking boots. No fancy sets or audio visuals of any kind, just a stool for him to sit on, which he used only to hold his bottle of water. Then, the tour-du-force of this master raconteur, humorist and vocalist begins.

Prior to the show we asked Garth how he had been preparing for this unique experience, whether he been writing notes, recollecting stuff he thought he could use in the show? But he says, "No, it's pretty easy to remember...and thank God I'm only 47, instead of 87, so it's pretty easy to remember the big milestones of my life."

Of course, it's one thing to have a good memory, but few people can recall the range of personal stories and tell them with such humor and pith that Brooks does so amazingly well. It was a wonderful night of humor and great music from the guy who will likely go down as one of the greatest performers America has ever produced. It's also interesting to hear the stories of his how his unique music was shaped by his being a fan of pop icons like James Taylor and Billy Joel. Their songs were included as well as the songs of his greatest country music influences, "The two Georges, George Jones and George Strait."

TRISHA JOINS IN ON THE FUN

At Friday's press conference Garth was asked if Trisha would ever join him during these shows. He said, not that night because she wasn't feeling good. But , about an hour and 20 minutes into the Saturday 8 o'clock show, Trisha came on stage to such a thunderous welcome, Garth exclaimed, "All of the sudden I'm 'Mr. Yearwood!''

Trisha looks great and sang her debut hit "She's In Love With The Boy.'" Then Garth suggested "Walk Away Joe," and ended up singing some sweet harmonies with her on the song." She performed on the later show as well.

GARTH TAKING CARE OF BUSINESS WITH FAMILY

Friday Garth provided an example of how the concerts and his family life will work. He flew in for the press conference and first show with his oldest daughter, Taylor," and Trisha. "We're flying out in the morning so that she can participate in a soccer match in Memphis."

Bottom line, the "Only Garth" shows at Wynn Resorts are a resounding success with the first audiences that managed to grab up the tickets to see this uniquely talented performer prove that
"Only Garth", is plenty enough for a great night of music and memoirs from an American music superstar.

- Neil Haislop

Classic Country, "Check Yes Or No?"

With "sameness of sound and too much repetition" reoccurring listener complaints right now, is it time for a station playing country classics from the 60's, 70's and 80's, allowing the hot/new/fresh country stations to be just that, especially in this age of consolidation with one owner controlling two or three country FM's in a market, fortressing the format and looking to broaden country's reach and defend all flanks?

A&O says "yes," with #1 12+ classic country stations from KTPK, Topeka, to KAYO, Wasilla. We even caught a Bass (WOMG) in Springfield this fall.

Want more info on how it's done? Call Michael O'Malley at 732-937-5757 or drop him an email.

And, no, your frequency doesn't have to end in ".9" to make it work, but in these three cases it sure hasn't hurt, either!

ARB Fly-In 2009 Quotes

"We need to tell a better story to a broader range of advertiser.” -Alton Adam, Executive VP/Chief Marketing Officer/Arbitron

“People want more from the devices they carry and audience measurement should be designed for any media, anywhere, any time.” -Taymoor Arshi, ARB Senior Vice President, Engineering and Chief Technology Officer

PPM shows that the average listener comes to radio 31 occasions of listening per week, half of them to their P-1 station. These are “16 moments of truth” for stations and personalities. Are you driving more than just ‘average’ daily regularity from your heavy users by deeply understanding who your listeners are, where they are, what they care about, what else they do?” -Tripp Eldredge, DMRInteractive

“Spot loads matter in PPM ratings. Every time the station breaks, people bolt. The more times you break, the more they bolt. ARB is ultimately hoping that owners realize they need to cut commercial their loads to get rating point levels up, which will drive revenue growth.” -John Snyder, Vice President, Portable People Meter Sales/ARB

Is It That I'm Not For Freedom And Justice?

As a person who aggressively supported the Obama run for the Presidency last year, I get lots of emails - from everyone from Joe Biden to Madeline Albright and all points between asking me to donate and work for all sorts of typical Democratic and progressive causes. So, when even one of those sends me a solicitation addressed to "Hi, all" which starts out with "Dear Friends.." it doesn't take me long to delete it, reporting it as SPAM.

Do you want my money, time, support, loyalty, even if you happen to be representing yourself as being from something I really believe deeply in??

Address me in the singular, as one person. Even better, use my name in the email header.

And, Barry, whoever you are: if you have something to tell me, you might want to simply address me directly by sending an email which at least "appears" as if it's directly from you to me.