Minding Your "V's" And "H's"

Horizontal songs can hurt usage if they are played back to back or even too close together.  These require coding and policies to make sure they add "surprise" and "variety" to the radio station's sound.  Too many of them and you get off target.

They are the spice in the recipe.  Program them like salt in your soup.  
 
Vertical tunes - for most radio formats music testing reveals that there are fewer than 300 of them - are the target listener's "bulleye" and the only risk of playing too many of them in a row is that the music mix becomes predictable and boring, which of course can also hurt usage.

Some programmers opt not to play any Horizonal songs, but that decision means in a competitive situation you need to test all of your golds at least quarterly.

Horizontal content often can be a personality's most viral and popular bits.  The Senseless Survey.  War Of The Roses.  Phone Scam.  Second Date Update.

Listeners love them, but too many in too short a period of time can be like having too many pieces of candy at one sitting.  It can make you sick.

Horizontal content is very promotable at "benchmark" times, driving habitual usage of more days per week.  It's not "the show."  It's a special event.  Too much of it, too often and it's not special anymore and stops accomplishing what it was originally designed to do.

Vertical content reinforces the character and values created by your best material but is the show.  It's the more routine content you do which listeners find informative, fun useful and helpful.

The challenge of executing vertical content is doing it with a fresh feel, passion and creativity each time.  No one is going to stop you at the Mall to tell you that they loved that clever intro of Tim McGraw's new song, but elements like it are the glue that holds everything together.

Great talent, formatics and programming begins by recognizing the difference between horizontals and verticals.  It then, requires the art of understanding precisely how often, when and where to perform them for maximum impact and minute-by-minute/day-by-day utilization.

Horizontals And Verticals

There are two ways the average radio listener makes use of the medium:

1. How many times (and how long each occasion) did they listen to their favorite station today (vertical listening)?
2. How many days a week did they do so at the same times (horizontal)?

If in your station imaging you only promote one of the two, you’re not maximizing your time spent exposed.

It's twice as much to sell, but today it's important to find ways to do it in half the time.

You Go First

Sean Ross (Why The Audience Now Wants Shorter Breaks) initiated not just a great conversation last week but the savvy and experienced folks adding comments since that time simply can't be ignored!

However, I'm not yet convinced.

Back when John Hayes ran Corus and Canada was just starting with PPM, with the help of the brilliant Bob Michaels (I STILL miss him so much - a smart researcher and a wonderful communicator!), all Corus stations were mandated to do six two minute breaks and promote that they go back to the music faster than anyone else.

Finally, after more than a year of disappointing ratings all of the Corus music stations went to two six minute breaks per hour and the ratings improved almost immediately across the board.

In Canada, BBM doesn't use "five minutes equals a quarter hour" as Nielsen Audio does, so it's absolutely a "most minutes" wins game and all of the Canadian country stations we work with are doing exceedingly well right now sticking with the "hour glass" or "bow tie" approach, so I'm welcoming anyone else who wants to take the Edison Researcher's advice and "go first."

My sense is that this is a case of perception vs actual habits.

TV commercials are all run at the same times so that viewers then are forced to choose their favorite shows based on the content not the commercial load and I believe that the same is true with radio when the measurement is PPM.

The major consolidated US group owners have shown me by their actions in PPM that it's possible for one station to play at least one minute more commercial time than a direct competitor and still win by carefully placing their clusters to maximize the time measured by the PPM, which like your cell phone "knows what time it is," so a few seconds can be the same as a minute depending where a tune-in or tune-out happens.  Thanks to Nielsen Audio's editing rules, that minute in the right place can be credited as a full quarter hour (or also cost you one if it's improperly placed).

Perception still drives expectations, which does make listeners go to one station "first" over another, but when at that station "time matters" much more than perceptions, I maintain.  Great content drives usage in the moment much more than the image that if I am patient I'll hear more of what I want in the long term.

Each "stop" causes a huge loss in the "switcher" audience and the more times per hour that happens the stronger that image of "it's worth waiting for something terrific" must be, my current experience still indicates.

How about you?  Ready to go first?

Becoming More Memorable

Increasing top-of-mindness:

1.  Find out which of your personalities your listeners know on an unaided basis.
2.  Test your programming features and stress the "benchmarks" among them.  Which ones can listeners name as a reason they listen to you?
3.  Find out of the core artists you play most bring your brand to mind for target listeners more than any other radio station.
4.  Proudly stand for values and attitudes your audience relates to.

Be certain that these 'benefits' can be described (as Lovemarks) on an unaided basis by as many members of your potential coalition as possible when compared to other radio stations they also use.

If You Can't Measure It, You Can't Change It

If your goal is to lower your levels of phantom cume and you're not a PPM market, how do you find out how much lost listening you have now?

1.  Conduct a phone survey that includes an open-ended question asking "what's your favorite radio station?"

2.  Then, later in the same survey, ask all of the target listeners to choose their favorite radio station from an aided-recall list of all the stations you compete with.

3.  The difference between the percentage of the sample to name your radio station on an unaided basis and the ones who choose you from the aided list is a good indication of your phantom cume.

Once you have that number you can test various ways to improve your "top of mind memorability" and redo the same survey several times annually to see what works.

Improve your unaided recall and you will increase your ratings.

Low Hanging Fruit

Phantom cume is real.  PPM proves it.

As noted here last week, the average radio station's cume almost doubles under PPM measurement.

If your radio station is measured by diaries, it seems that roughly half your audience simply forgets (or doesn't care enough about what they hear) to write down listening they actually did to you.

Ponder this:

If you could help them remember all of the usage they actually do, you could double your cume audience without spending a dime in marketing!

It's The Panel

After more than a half century of radio ratings diary measurement, we have all become accustomed to certain metrics.  The arrival of PPM over the last decade has changed the math completely.

For the average country station still being rated by diaries this ratio remains quite constant:  a little more than one third of diarykeepers account for almost three quarters of average quarter hour audience. 

For that reason, radio's research companies have learned that a random probability sample composed of about 60% of a station's "core" (P1/heaviest users) and some 40% of that station's cume as found at random in a metro population provides a reliable indication of how that broadcaster is going to do in the next diary survey.

When PPM started to roll out in the top 50 U.S. and Canada's major markets over the last decade that formula no longer "worked."  Many radio stations back when their first PPM ratings were released were unpleasantly surprised to find out that performing extremely well in a traditional perceptual research project fielded with the time-honored sample parameters was no predictor of PPM scores!

Six years ago at the annual December programming "fly-in," Nielsen Audio's clever research crunchers revealed new insights into emerging major market panel samples that still help explain why that may have been happening:

 

• Unlike in diary measurement where lighter users often fail to report their usage, PPM captures it all, so instead of the vast majority of AQH audience coming from heavy users, it's more of a 50/50 proposition.  
• Roughly half of all radio average quarter hour ratings now reflect extremely light, "drive by," perhaps even unintentional use.  Those people listen an average of under three minutes per occasion, bringing average "time spent exposed" when down when compared to diary driven data.
• Heavy users (P-1's) are still in the sample, accounting for about half the usage of the average radio station's shares.  Their average occasion is ten+ times as long as the other half of the sample, typically something like 35 minutes.
• PPM also shows that those heavy users listen to about twice as many radio stations in an average week that they would have written down, on average, when they filled out a listening diary.
• Savvy programmers and researchers have now had more than six years to fully understand these new dynamics and our ability to project results has been improving, but there is still much to learn, but it's important to keep in mind that actual listening has not changed.  
• You can get the about the same number of quarter hours by targeting either group or many more than you did in diaries if you can find a way to bridge the gaps and constantly satisfy both of them.
• Listeners still perceive and make use of radio in the same ways they always have.  It's the measurement techniques and the sample that changed, requiring new usage tactics and perceptual-driven strategies.

Do Perceptions Drive Usage?

The company now known as Nielsen Audio has been using diaries to measure radio and television audiences for 55 years now and it's unquestionable that the memorability, partisanship and top-of-mindness which make a person remember a listening occasion long enough to write down when it started and when it stopped as well as the station's "call letters, dial setting or name" can be predicted accurately by measuring listener perceptions.  However, this is prone to mistakes and forgetfulness, as well as subjectivity.

So, along came PPM, with its promise of more granular actual usage data of a panel that remains fairly consistent for several years.

A compelling case for moving to PPM has been driven by many factors - beyond the mere fact that today's audiences are increasingly unwilling to take time to fill out and send back printed diaries - not the least of which is that almost every single radio station's weekly cume audience almost doubles when actual usage is the measure rather than just the ability to be remembered.

PPM proves a long-held belief that Phantom Cume exists.  Roughly half of radio usage is simply not measured by diaries because either the sample doesn't think that their usage was significant enough to take time to report or because they just didn't recall doing it.

Diary success is driven by something one major radio researcher terms "The Image Pyramid."  The stronger the most important images, the better you do.

PPM panel success requires an even higher stakes game.  Not only must you strongly hold all of the key brand images compared to the other radio stations and media choices available to your potential audience, you also have to execute in a granular level down to the minute. 

You may be a person's favorite radio station, personality or program, but if at this very minute you tune them out and another station starts doing something they love, you lose.

Everything that was important yesterday is still crucial, but now minute-by-minute usage has increased the stakes.

They Know Our Streaming Product Isn't As Good

We have work to do.

  -- A&O&B Roadmap 2014

Can Online Usage Reinvent Radio At Home?

Trend:  as television has reinvented their morning newscasts in the form of traditional morning radio shows, many folks have been turning to radio later in the morning, as they get into their vehicles.

Will personal mobile devices give your radio station a new "at home usage" opportunity?

BUT, meanwhile, the vehicle is under attack at the same time:

.. especially with our long term future listeners.

The national averages, of course, are fascinating but meaningless, really, except as a comparison to your local performance.  Are you ahead of/behind the curve on every data point?  There's only one way to know and that is to do local research.

 - A&O&B Roadmap 2014

Online Listening To Audio Doesn't Hurt AM/FM Usage

In fact, among core country fans, it appears to increase it!

Your listeners are looking for you where ever they use audio media and that change is coming fast:

The national averages, of course, are fascinating but meaningless, really, except as a comparison to your local performance.  Are you ahead of/behind the curve on every data point?

There's only one way to know and that is to do local research.

- A&O&B Roadmap 2014

What (Where) Is Radio?

Radio is where today's listener expects it to be.

-- A&O&B "Roadmap 2014"

Roadmap 2014: Country Listeners Are Increasingly Social

Sure, Facebook is big.  BUT there isn't one emerging social medium that isn't picking up more of our listeners on a daily basis.

(My Space?  What's THAT?)

The national averages, of course, are fascinating but meaningless, really, except as a comparison to your local performance.  Are you ahead of/behind the curve on every data point?

There's only one way to know and that is to do local research.

- A&O&B Roadmap 2014 

"AM, FM, XM too.."

Even the most satisfied core listener sometimes gets pushed away by their favorite radio station doing something they don't like.

Where do they go when that happens?

A little less than half punch another preset.  One in four goes to their own digital player, but after that the other 2014 "second choices" are not what they used to be!

If you're not planning ways right now to prevent Luke Bryan from looking for things to rhyme with "Pandora, Slacker and iPod too" in his next single, it's time to start.

 - A&O&B Roadmap 2014

A Roadmap 2014 Sneak Preview

More than 9,000 country radio listeners from nearly 100 radio stations participated in A&O&B's Roadmap 2014.  This is nearly double the number of stations whose listeners completed the online survey and an increase of 43% in sample size from 2013.
75% reside the USA and 25% live in Canada  Demos were fairly well-balanced, with huge growth in the under-35 cells:

13%  18-24
21% 25-34
19% 35-44
25% 45-54
16% 55-64

90% called a country station "their first choice."

Just 13% agreed with the stations that country music is worse than it used to be.

58% said they spend more than two hours per day with their favorite country station and 33% listened 1-2 hours daily.

72% called themselves very satisfied with their favorite country station.  Fewer than 1% said that they are "very dissatisfied" with the country station they listen to the most.

In short:  these are passionate fans of country music who use radio heavily.

The national averages are certainly fascinating to ponder, but the real utility of these numbers for A&O&B clients is to compare every data point in the study with their local listener perceptions to spot both problems and opportunities by knowing more about their audience.

Milking That "Outdated Research" One More Time

Seldom do I post data that A&O&B clients saw a year ago and get as much response as I have to my previous article.

Folks have called, posted and emailed positing numerous theories as to why country radio's "satisfaction" scores have trended downward for the last two years and "willing to try a new radio station" has trended up (though both remain at levels many other formats would envy!):

• The music isn't as good as it was two years ago?
• Too many irritating commercials?
• Too much repetition?
• Over-reliance on voice-tracking and not enough 24/7 engagement?
• Weak digital outreach?
• Lack of marketing?

Here's my take, for what it's worth.

Of course, all of that are challenges we need to work harder on, but so do all other radio formats too and they are hardly unique to country radio.  I think a large factor is simply generational shift, aging out folks from our target who might have accepted a "we talk/you listen" broadcast approach.

It may be that we're not worse that we were one, two, three years ago.  It's just that today's listener simply demands more from us.

Going back to doing what we did in the past won't solve the problem.

It's Time For Your Annual Checkup

For the ninth year A&O&B client stations across the USA and Canada will be inviting their listeners to take a test.

When the results of "Roadmap 2014" are available in about a month, it will be the individual radio stations getting their grades by core listeners.

The study goes into the field this week in over 90 markets in the US and Canada and the national trends will be revealed at A&O&B's annual Pre-CRS 2014 client seminar.

Satisfaction levels last year were highest with 35-44's and lowest, though still very good, with 25-34.

Reliance drives behavior.  Measures of listening like loyalty, time spent listening, core vs fringe and tune in occasions are all driven by a feeling of regular daily reliance on a personality or radio station.

Importance, an internal realization a personality or radio station has become valuable to the listener drives perceptions which can drive that behavior. 

These "average" levels in Roadmap seem to have peaked three years ago and appeared to be trending downward for the last two years.  Each individual station performs uniquely of course and knowing if you're better or worse than average is a crucial success factor.

• How much do listeners rely on your radio station this year?  
• How important in their lives is it?

Switchability of the average country radio listener seems to have gotten easier and easier little by little over the last five years.

There's only one way to reverse those troublesome trends and that is to know what they are.   A&O&B is committed to measuring them again right now. 

Invite your listeners to be a part of this annual exam.  If you want to learn how, let's talk soon. 

Your 2014 ratings depend on it.

AM/FM Radio Holds Competitive Edge for Music

While Two in Three Adults Listen to Music on Broadcast Radio Weekly, New Music Platforms are Playing a Bigger Role

Toronto-based Vision Critical in conjunction with Canadian Music Week just released online survey results that show that broadcast radio stations continue to be the leading music source for North American adults. However, a wide range of digital options appear to be closing the gap.

Nearly two-thirds of North American adults reported listening to music on AM/FM radio stations via standard or streamed radio in the past week. 

Responses show that Canadian adults are slightly more inclined to listen to broadcast radio than Americans—70 percent compared to 63 percent listen weekly.

Though AM/FM usage remains considerably higher than competing platforms, emerging music sources such as YouTube, music download services, Internet radio and streaming services have gained a foothold among online adults.

Key findings include:

• YouTube is a widely used platform for listening to music, especially among 18 to 34 year old adults. About 66 percent of 18 to 34 year old Canadians and 61 percent of 18 to 34 year old Americans listen to music on YouTube. This is virtually the same proportion of 18 to 34 year old adults who listen to music on broadcast radio stations (66 percent in Canada and 62 percent in the U.S.).
  
• Though music consumption patterns are generally similar between Canada and the U.S., the use of Internet radio and music streaming services is considerably higher in the U.S. More than one in four American adults listen to music on the Web, whereas only about 20 percent of the Canadian adult population do so where services such as Pandora and Spotify are not available.

“We are seeing that music and in fact, radio itself are shifting platforms. This is not necessarily at the expense of broadcast radio but as a result of the expanding array of music platform choices.  Radio still plays a key role in keeping its listeners connected, but digital options are clearly moving into the pure music position.”  - Jeff Vidler, senior vice president of media and entertainment at VisionCritical

The survey was conducted between March 19-20, 2013 among 1,506 Canadian adults ages 18 and over and 1,004 American adults ages 18 and over. Email invitations were sent to members of the Vision Critical Market Panels, offering a nationally representative sample for Canada via the Angus Reid Forum and for the United States via Springboard America. The survey was fielded in association with Canadian Music Week, March 19-24, 2013 at the Marriott Eaton Centre in Toronto. 

Part Of Their Life

The radio station - no matter what the format - which dominates “at work” listening has a major edge.

So, everyone’s vying for that marketing niche.

Country’s at work goal is to have about one third of total week average quarter hours from the workplace. Top performing adult contemporary stations often get as much as two thirds of their AQH from “at work.” If a country station had that much I'd worry that it's not being used enough in the other places where the listener uses radio too.

That difference is a clue to understanding a unique aspect of country radio users and other transitional format listeners.

When they are alone in a vehicle or out with their family, they are more likely to listen to country music on the radio.

When they are with others they don't know as well, it sometimes takes a little extra reason to convince them to “fight” (bribe the boss, compromise with coworkers who don’t know they like country yet...) for country on the at work radio.

Weekends are very often country radio’s best audience shares, which means that a top-performing station has to be much more actively involved than more passive radio brands do.

In addition to “at work,” as a major part of lifestyle orientation, country radio must reflect usage of the station at soccer games, yard sales, outdoor activities, going to the movies, attending church, doing chores like laundry, shopping, cooking for the week, doing homework, going to school.

You'll find winning country stations rewarding great bosses, terrific teachers, smart students, for good reason.

Country radio users increasingly have other media begging for their time and attention in all of those places.

They’ll choose media, perhaps without even thinking about it, that appear to reflect their needs and values - at every time and in every place of their busy lifestyles.

Each time you open a mic, ask yourself what "he or she" is doing right now.

Reflect that in your content.

Even better, be there with 'em.

Strong Feelings = Strong Ratings

Toronto researcher Jeff Vidler recently showed me a new online approach to real time programming analysis which inventories down to the second the feelings of the viewer or listener as they watch video or listen to audio.

In a very short clip of a sports talk show the audience was curious, engaged, interested, excited, then confused, bored, disturbed and then tuned off.

The more deeply-felt positive emotions, ranging from amused to happy, the higher the level of usage.

Negative ones, like ranges of annoyed or apathetic, don’t take very long to cost attention span at the very least and lose a listener at the most.

Sales and management’s job is to push to use every minute to help them make money.

Talented programmers and personalities are able to find a way to do that by keeping the audience’s feelings positively engaged and their interest level high, relating all their content informatively and engagingly.

Then, there’s the majority of us, the majority of the time.

We've been reading the same lines on the same cards for too many years.

As you air check yourself, listen for great storytelling - immediate, local and personal - and count the positive emotions you feel.

Weak/no feelings = weak/no ratings.