Time For Programmers To Learn A New Language

This development is not at all surprising.

As usual, they want us to cut our inventories while refusing to pay anything more when we do it, in spite of considerable data proving radio's impact.

If the only way they will pay more is when "cost per point" hits media buyer wishes and dreams, it's crucial that the people creating content fully understand which quarter hours and programming tactics have the highest potential to get target GRPs, ultimately ARPs, as high as possible.

Let's stop worrying about 6+ average quarter hour shares, replacing those with the highest payoff target points.

That's an entirely new way to approach formatic, content and programming metrics.

It's going to require a quick learning curve for most Brand Managers, but A&O&B can help make it simple and very rewarding for you to do so.

And, Then, They Came For Us

As World War II era Pastor Martin Niemöller's prescient quote implies, it's human nature for a majority group which feels unaffected by even extremely-egregious unfairness to ignore the concerns of their neighbors until it comes knocking.

Thus, since in most PPM-rated markets the country format has been doing pretty well, it has been tempting to ignore the complaints from minority radio owners and simply bask in the glow of our format's huge cumes and share growth.

At May's BCAB convention, for example, BBM CEO Jim McCleod noted in pre-currency tests of PPM in Vancouver it appeared country listening will go from a seven share of diary tuning to potentially more than a nine.

Now, one month before fast-growing and increasingly-ethnic San Diego goes currency with PPM, it has been concerning to watch as ARB appears in rumored pre-currency data to be having trouble locating the same percentage of core country radio listeners for the PPM panel as they had in the diary sample.

Unless something changes fast, country's audience share in San Diego could dip from the sevens to the fives.

Questions: are the population estimates which drive sample proportionality, now nine years away from the last census, accurate? Or, will they reflect a major change in the estimates when the 2010 census rolls into the ARB data in two years? What will that say about today's shares? Will panel management over the next few weeks pick up more country ultra core which seems to be missing in the pre-currency data we've seen thus far? What impact will that have on San Diego country radio owners Lincoln Financial Media and Clear Channel revenue projections as they budget for 2010 right now?

Suddenly, what seemed to be the worries of others have come to the country format's door in at least this one market where non-ethnic households have become a minority group.

When former ARB SVP/Ratings Services Jay Guyther blogs from his new post at ROI Media Solutions that this same issue has been on the back burner for 15 years at Arbitron and says "...leave the FCC, Attorneys General, Congress, MRC, etc. out of it. Increase the panel sizes to a sufficient size and most of the other problems, in my opinion, will go away..." it is long past time for action to replace homeostasis.