Stationality: Who Is Your Listener? What's YOUR "Word?"

Yesterday's post included a slide from Daniel Anstandig's 2007 presentation at Dan O'Day's PD Grad School, because Dan made some evergreen points so perfectly.

#1: choose YOUR ''word."

"Comfort," the one that resides in the center of his example bullseye works perfectly for a Christian AC or other soft format.

What one word gives expression to everything you want to stand for in the mind of your audience? Choose thoughtfully.

It is imperative to understand the target listener’s world of experience.


Successful stations give listeners a sense of belonging by validating their values and lifestyle.

It is impossible for us to “out-technology” new technology.

Creative distribution can’t hurt us, but the bottom-line for continual growth is cultivating relationships through your programming.

How can you make a one-on-one connection with your listener in a way that they believe you’re talking to them on a personal level every time they listen?

It’s not only about what your radio station does. It’s about what your radio station means.

Tomorrow, another audio communication expert, Nick Michaels, on how to make sure that this happens on your radio station.

Elements Of Stationality

What parts of your radio station do you employ to develop "stationality" listeners can consistently experience?


.... Everything!

.. with thanks to McVay New Media's Daniel Anstandig.

Burger-ality

Pulling It All Together This Week (...like last week, one day at a time)

Last week's four-part series of ideas to max your engagement in listeners' celebrations and holidays during February got some nice feedback on why it's so important to do that.

For example, this treatise on stationality from an old colleague, who's looking for his next job right now:

· Local, local, local. Engage the community and get involved and talk about local events and happenings. Radiate civic pride!

· Review, develop and maintain station benchmarks.

· Terms of endearment: Tie into local charities and events that evoke emotion and tug on the heart strings. Find a charity that you can hang your stations hat on and make it a mission.

· Have fun! Develop listener talk and curiosity through little or no cost signature station promotions that are ongoing, fun and not just seasonal.

· Theme It Up. Review and develop station(s) “Theme Weekend” arsenal to make sure it’s fun, always fresh and give some relief to the library.

"Radio Is Life! It’s a culmination of the things going on around us, how we feel and are reflected in the things we do, what we say and the songs we play. Let’s make sure your station and branding is on track. Then we can get those creative juices flowing and build some fun promotions to make people talk about your station and don’t forget to have some fun!"

PS: If you'd like to know in confidence who this savvy/"available" programmer is, just drop me an email and I'll send you the entire package of philosophies this came from.

Day #4 (as promised): Late February-March Ideas

• Frozen food month idea for grocery store, vendor and even appliance dealer who sells freezers. Stock freezers full of frozen food and give away keys that unlock the freezer. Winner gets all the food and the freezer.
• SPRING TRAINING: A counter-balance to the strong female appeal of the current music is a cool prize for guys: a trip to either Spring Training or to a Fantasy Baseball Camp. Especially effective in regions where the weather is cold and snowy. Be sure to capture the data base information on the men who enter or who will be the recipient of the prize if a woman enters for them. Aggressive stations will design special direct mail station promotional pieces that are male-focused.
• SPRING BREAK FOR ADULTS/FAMILIES: Consider a Spring Break giveaway for adults: a long weekend trip to places like the Florida Keys, Bermuda, the desert Southwest (of, if you have a sister Classic Rock station, destinations that listeners might have gone to when they were in school: Daytona Beach, Ft. Lauderdale, etc.). For families, consider locations like Disney World/Disneyland. Or give a choice: a tennis, golf, spa getaway, even skiing, etc. Works well with combination of on-air listening and at at-client registration.
• HELP FOR THE HOMELESS: Winter's bitter cold nights are especially problematic for homeless persons. Organize a drive to collect sleeping bags that can be distributed by community organizations.
• LEVI STRAUSS BIRTHDAY (February 26): Celebrate by offering special trade-in prices to everyone who brings in a pair of jeans to be donated to charity. Alternately offer special discounts to everyone who wears jeans into the store...or have a contest for the best-decorated jeans (best-filled jeans, etc.) with the winners getting free jeans.

(More February Ideas) Presidents Day (February 21)

Give away "President Portraits" - some "Lincolns" ($5 bill), Hamiltons, Grants, etc. Award for correct answers to trivia questions about the respective presidents who are on the bills you are giving away.

Alternately, give away "Lincolns and Washingtons" for every song someone can name from the previous hour.

Or ask a question every hour 10a-3p and award a "Presidential Collection" (one bill from each President) to the first person to fax in all the correct answers.

Or do a variation on the "Dollar Bill Game" giving away "Presidential Collections" for people who can match partial serial numbers on any dollar bill they may have ("I'm looking for a dollar bill with two 8's").

The WXXX bank isn't closed today. Listen for the first few bars of "Hail To The Chief" to call in and win pictures of Presidents on legal tender.

Frame up a collection of as many denominations as you'd like and have people guess who the portraits are of with a drawing from all the correct guesses to win the collection

Win a cherry pie plus what's inside. At the sound of the tree chopping, call in to win a pie from a local bakery plus what's inside…concert tickets, CDs, cash, T-shirts. Perhaps even a weekend in the Presidential Suite at a local first class hotel. Be sure to stage with plenty of effects like squishy sounds of reaching in the pie.

Presidential Fun And Games. Morning show games feature quotes/trivia with listeners matching the item to the correct President. "I Cannot Tell A Lie" where each member of the morning crew claims to be giving a true piece of Presidential trivia but only one is telling the truth. Give away videos of "American President."

PS: BONUS FUN FOR WASHINGTON'S BIRTHDAY (February 22)

Morning show bit. One partner announces that he, like George Washington, can't tell a lie. Listeners call in and ask DJ questions that he must truthfully answer. Screen for questions that are entertaining but not too embarrassing.

Last-Instant February Ideas (#2 of 4)

• Romantic Night On The Town. Give away dinner for two at the best restaurant in town, complete with limo, flowers, AND money for a baby sitter.
  
  
• Alternately, give away "Champagne Luncheons for Two" at a local "high-class" restaurant. Winners were wined and dined by all the jocks wearing tuxes. During middays have your morning show make rounds to at-work listeners during the week of Valentine's Day. Could include delivering flowers and candy to listeners who call or fax in requesting a visit.
  
  
• Cocooners Valentine's Day. Give away a romantic evening at home; includes a chef who comes to the winner's house and prepares a romantic meal, some great love-story videos for watching after dinner and some evening attire from a Victoria's Secret type store.
  
  
• Dedicated To The One You Love. The week before Valentine's Day (start now!), record listeners' dedications to play back on the 14th.. Schmaltzy is fine. If time permits, call listeners to tell them what hour their song will air.
  
  
• Have A Heart promotion. Print up red hearts on heavy stock paper with a blank spot in the center, your logo on the upper right and a charity on the upper left. Hearts have a string attached so they can be hung. Work with a multi-outlet sponsor such as a convenience store, chain of filling stations, or a group of merchants such as all area restaurants who agree to sell hearts in the amount of the station's frequency. Purchasers can inscribe a personal message in the blank area and have the heart displayed at the business through the end of the month. All proceeds go to charity.

A Month Of Ideas In Four Days (Part 1)

LINCOLN'S BIRTHDAY (February 12)

A good grocery promotion. Pass out certificates (numbered Lincoln logs?).

Award Lincoln-oriented prizes like (cheese) logs, "four score" (80) of something, Log Cabin syrup, etc.

Add in discounts to anyone wearing a beard, over 6 foot tall (Lincoln was a tall guy), etc. Have a drawing every "four score" minutes. Good appearance idea.

(tomorrow: last-minute ideas for Valentine's Day)

I Don't Know Bill & Jillian. Same With Christine Mac Shane. Don't Want To, Either.

And, maybe they are real nice folks, working for fine businesses.


Obviously, they want me to "like" them, but why would I?

Just because they want me to?

Get a clue, people. Radio is one to one. Has been for years. The days of "broadcasting" to a "mass audience" ended decades ago.

Social networks only work "one" to "one."

If you're "announcing" on Twitter, Facebook, et al and you've looked at your competition's ratings, cume, size of their community, followers and they do it as well, maybe you can still get away with "yelling" at people you want to be drawn to you.

For awhile, maybe.

If, on the other hand, you'd like to have more influence on more new people, consider this:

First, It Takes A Big Idea

I've linked to David Farrell's FYIMusic a few times in the past because he and his contributors always try to be "big picture" thinkers.

Blogger Bob “The Iceman” Segarini was in the bands The Family Tree, Roxy, The Wackers, The Dudes, The Segarini Band, and Cats and Dogs, and nominated for a Canadian Juno for production in 1978. He also hosted “Late Great Movies” on Toronto's CITY TV, was a producer of Much Music, and an on-air personality on CHUM FM, Q107, SIRIUS Sat/Rad’s Iceberg 95, (now 85), and now provides content for radiothatdoesntsuck.com with RadioZombie, The Iceage, and PsychShack.

From that lofty perch, Segarini's prescriptions, like the Egyptian protesters' demands, can sometimes seem a bit too big, the distance a tad too far from where we are, that someone more invested successfully in the way things are right now - like, with commercial radio and me - tends to consider his "demands" as too revolutionary and perhaps so "big" as to be frightening.

"How can we feed our need to hear the music we know is out there without the taste makers and risk takers who no longer tread the halls of radio and record companies, or labels who have the patience it takes to build a career instead of manufacturing celebrities and ‘hit’, radio friendly singles. We, those of us who love music, are potentially the largest A&R department that has ever existed. How do we disseminate our information? How do we take our favourite new music and artists from obscurity to prominence? How do we help turn local promise into a chance for international success? Well, we need radio’s help."

His vision for completely remaking the music business model would have to happen before his scenario for remaking the interactive radio model - while leaving analog radio as it is - that it's unlikely to occur until labels and copyright owners hurt a lot more than they are even now.

"With these options in place a database would be created of all the music available on the internet and who owns it. Unless YOU owned the original content you wished to upload to the internet, you would not be able to upload content for others to take. You would be blocked by your ISP because you didn’t create or own the original property, easily determined by the database that would come from the labels uploading their content. Without the ability to upload music you didn’t create or own the copyright to, there couldn’t be any more illegal downloads."

However, if it does eventually come to pass that all music and rights exist in the cloud, it would be great to hope that radio could leverage that, creating unique products on our music portals to attract "Long Tail" music consumers to our brands with all matter of variety we can't afford to offer in mass broadcast form.

"As far as radio goes, not much can be done unless they re-embrace music and relax their formats and listen to the people that no longer listen to them instead of the people who do. Until the corporations start selling off some of their ill performing properties and independents again acquire a foothold on the airwaves, or they are forced by decree from the FCC and the CRTC to take one station in their cluster in each market and use it to train new talent, present new music, and focus on the local community, radio’s best bet is to utilize the internet like they have never used it before."

Is there any radio executive who doesn't acknowledge that more than 25% of our listeners would use us more if we had fewer/almost no commercials? .. that half or more of our consumers would use us more if we didn't have so much predictable repetition? Would they be willing to subscribe to services which solved those problems?

But, is there a consensus of music copyright owners and artists with enough courage to embrace Segarini's idea to open distribution as their long term future, so that we can find out if I am right about his vision for the next generation on online "radio?"

Hello? Apple? It's RIM.

You've never seen all of those on one platform before and it's a very welcome sight, indeed!

"BlackBerry Radio is not a traditional radio app, but instead works with multiple radio apps to make the process of finding and listening to radio on a BlackBerry® smartphone quicker, easier and more integrated by presenting a sampling of services from some of our most popular partners."

While listening to music streams from participating radio partners, users in the US will have quick access to the recently launched Amazon MP3 storefront to purchase songs currently playing. Users can also access BlackBerry Radio at any time from within the music menu on their BlackBerry smartphone.

If you haven't noticed, things are getting very interesting in the mobile space and it's only begun.

Morning Radio Revisited

There simply aren't enough freshly-updated training tools available for managers, coaches and talent - at a time when it's becoming obvious that strong personalities who understand how to relate locally, interact, engage, involve, tell stories, evoke emotions, edit themselves brutally and entertain consistently will be the theme of the year 2011 for radio as our old medium learns that music with not much talk is becoming a ubiquitous commodity.

"Often we get so hung up on the big idea that we don’t recognize the small but meaningful moments that can endear personalities to fans. We spend hours seeking the next big thing and often never find it. What could you do instead?
Return every phone call and email.
Send a handwritten card to five people.
Produce new content to your blog.
Record a podcast on a specific topic you are passionate..."

Tracy Johnson was a leading programmer for 25 years, a successful radio station manager after that and he has just condensed the current state of the art into 110 meaty, readable, useful pages!

I just reviewed his newest book and can recommend it highly. Be the first in your market to read it!

Complexity Is The Enemy Of Success

Fox News' John R. Quain asks "Is Facebook fading" and offers a very convincing argument that it is.

It has a stratospheric valuation, an Oscar-nominated movie about it, 600 million fans, and its CEO just appeared on Saturday Night Live. So where's Facebook going to go from here? Down.

Take a look in the mirror. How's your focus on the core reasons listeners come to you?

"K-I-S-S" is always a great prescription for keeping users satisfied and that starts with knowing what business you're in (as defined by your users).

Quotes

From Holland Cooke's fresh off the presses February Newsletter (always worth a read for both his facts and opinions, but also a lesson in high-voltage writing style):

“We will always be Radio Shack.” -- Radio Shack executive I chatted-up at the Consumer Electronics Show. I told him how hurt I-a-lifelong-radio-guy felt when his company re-imaged as The Shack. It was just an ad campaign, and it worked, he explained, vowing that his company is true-to-its-roots. So I asked him if the Digital TV Transition renewed the market for TV antennas. And he smiled: “We never stopped selling TV antennas.”

“The radio craze will die out in time.” -- Thomas Edison, 1922

“Superficial press plus technology myopia cause us to see today's change as more important than it really is while simultaneously minimizing the significance of past technologies.” -- Bob Seidensticker, author, “Future Hype,” 2001

“Here in the first half of the twenty-first century how can we not be excited by the possibilities that lay just around the corner – the next innovation, the game-changer, the paradigm shift?” -- Brian David Johnson, author, “Screen Future,” 2010

“Give people what they want, otherwise they’ll take it anyway.” -- P.T. Barnum, predicting, nearly 200 years ago, that I’d plug one-end-of a cord into the cigarette lighter and the-other-end-into iPhone. Why: The FM receiver in the sporty ’99 VW Beetle is fine, but the signal-to-noise-ratio on the AM side is intolerable.

#1's And Recurrents

As Kenny Chesney's monster single remains camped at the top of the charts for another week. Keith Urban and the Capitol Records/Nashville promo team will have to settle for a #2 peak.

One label exec last week pointed out that the Urban will probably end the week with somewhere around 35,000,000 audience and that would be enough for #1 on about 95% of the charts during the year, but not when you're parked behind 'a Sherman Tank of a song like "Somewhere With You".'

Luke Bryan appears to be lined up next for a two-week run at #1 and should he get it, it would be Luke's third consecutive chart topper.

Meanwhile, I just happened to be a part of a conversation between WAXX/Eau Claire MD/morning cohost Alex Edwards and CJJR/Vancouver Assistant PD and A&O associate Mark Patric on how meaningless that all is to radio, since all of those songs are already certain to live for many, many weeks more in recurrent categories.

Edwards pointed out that as his station celebrates another #1 in ARB as the Fall 2010 ratings came out - the #1 we all care about - he is considering moving Lady Antebellum, Eric Church and perhaps also Luke Bryan, in spite of the impending label run for number one, to recurrent given his local research on them.

All are extremely strong songs for the station, but he wonders aloud but what he needs be looking at in order to decide which to move at least temporarily from Power & Regular Recurrent?

• Final Call out?
• Total Pos?
• Spins?
• Weeks?

Patric and I agreed that simply looking at "weeks on" in a competitive situation can be a simplistic solution, since you might move out a stronger tune and leave a weaker one in.

Here's what we all agreed were three things that usually serve to be the best compromise in what has to be quite often a very subjective judgment call.

1. Highest spins in the category...or total library spins.
2. Lowest testing score in category (Patric says he gives each song moving to recurrent a seven week total favorite average score from it's last seven tests before it moves to recurrent)
3. Duplicate artists. If power recurrent or regular recurrent has more than two songs from one artist I'll USUALLY always move out that duplicate artist. When you have one artist with more than one song in recurrent it affects scheduling.

That's how I do it. And, even better, Alex and Mark agree.

What do you do? Would you ever move a recurrent back up to power current?

Hit "comment" below and join the discussion!

Meet You In 3-D In Five Years

Have you watched IBM’s “Next Five in Five” short list of innovations that have the potential to change many of the ways people conduct their lives, which is floating around the net (and I thought I'd keep it floating this morning in case you haven't as yet):



• You’ll meet with your friends in 3-D
• Batteries will breathe air to power our devices
• You won’t need to be a scientist to save the planet
• Your commute will be personalized (be sure your traffic reporter watches this. It's not enough to tell where problems are any more. "Alternate options" is what listeners really need now.)
• Computers will help energize your city

Broadcast Dialogue's Howard Christensen sent it yesterday, adding: "Broadcasters’ best interests include keeping informed and taking advantage of new technologies, trends and keeping abreast of the human condition, e.g. the way people work, live and play."

Ya think?

The Airlines Do It...Why Can't We?

Just yesterday, I had a client set up a diary review for next Monday, meaning I had to change my flights today. You know the drill. Less than a seven day advance. No refunds allowed. $150 change fee. Plus, a higher fare than I would have gotten with more advance notice.

After a decade of multibillion-dollar losses, U.S. airlines appear likely to profit for years for a simple reason: They are flying less. By grounding planes and eliminating flights, airlines have cut costs and pushed fares higher. As the global economy rebounds, travel demand is rising and planes are as full as they've been in decades.

We always have the parallels with airlines in inventory control. Maybe there's one to draw here.

Less flights, more money. Fewer spots, higher audiences, higher rates, more money.

Does anyone in our business (other than Cox) have that kind of courage?

If you know of any others, please recognize and salute them in a comment, below.

They deserve the success that they are creating right now for their immediate, medium and long term future ... and beau coup props for it as well.

I Love This Business! And, Some Days It Even Loves Me Back...

Hats off to the promotion crew at Stoney Creek Records for sending out the most creative promo item I've received thus far in 2011...



Uploaded from "the road," so my Flip video doesn't really do it justice, but it is still worth a click (.. and Happy Valentines Day to you, too!!)

Do You Want To Send Your Listeners Eight Times More Coupons?

Groupon Chief Executive Andrew Mason is in Europe today and claims that they are only able to accommodate one of eight businesses wanting to do daily deals with them.

10LocalCoupons.com’s Eric Strauss has gone live partnering with radio in 100 markets and hopes unity will be the key to success.

“With every broadcaster doing their own thing, there’s just getting to be too much noise in the market. We try to get multiple broadcasters in a market to work together so we can block any competitors.”

Groupon, goes mainly after restaurants and spas. Strauss tells Inside Radio local broadcasters tend to attract a wider array of clients — like dry cleaners, roofers and carpet cleaners. “We’re getting calls from furniture stores who say they called Groupon and they wouldn’t take them.”


1. Is your station website as clean and focused as this?
2. Does it make sense to email your entire database offering half off on furniture or roofing? Do you have a better way to help these categories?
3. Is your communication going to be as clever, well-written and focused on the permission/needs of the consumer as Groupon's?
4. Have you segmented your database based on their planned purchases and interests?
5. Have you searched for "Groupon competitors" and studied the unique selling propositions of all of them?

Don't act until you can honestly answer "yes" five times.

Just because the short-term money is there, doesn't mean it's smart for radio to TAKE it without a solid strategy that benefits listeners and doesn't further clutter our brands.

Arista And Alan Jackson: An “Amicable Parting"

This certainly says that the "record" business ain't what it used to be.

Once upon a time artists like Chet Atkins and Jim Reeves remained with Nipper until they died.

But, of course, that was a different time in so many ways.

Tim Dubois is gone. Joe Galante is gone. Jackson, the first artist signed to Arista Nashville when the label was founded in 1989, is gone now too.

Alan sold more than 50 million albums for Arista in his 22 years with the imprint.

Most of us, no doubt, lack adequate words to express how sad all of this makes us feel.

Hopefully, Alan is, as usual, writing the absolutely perfect song lyric and melody right now to say it best for us.

I can't wait to hear it.

Conflict

Although Entertainment Weekly gushes, "Simon who? Steven Tyler and Jennifer Lopez join Randy Jackson for an upbeat, friendlier season 10 premiere," Donnie Osmond begs to differ after watching the new American Idol.

Thanks to Citadel Media and Mike McVay I got an early listen to some of today's Donnie Osmond radio show and (click here to listen to it - mp3) his take comes from a very smart, experienced entertainer and applies to your radio show too.

Is their any conflict?

"Conflict is what makes things interesting." - Donny Osmond

"Friendly" may be "nice," but conflict is an essential building block of engagement and entertainment.

Part Of Their Life

The radio station - no matter what the format - which dominates “at work” listening has a major edge.

So, everyone’s vying for that marketing niche.

Country’s at work goal is to have about one third of total week average quarter hours from the workplace. Top performing adult contemporary stations often get as much as two thirds of their AQH from “at work.” If a country station had that much I'd worry that it's not being used enough in the other places where the listener uses radio too.

That difference is a clue to understanding a unique aspect of country radio users and other transitional format listeners.

When they are alone in a vehicle or out with their family, they are more likely to listen to country music on the radio.

When they are with others they don't know as well, it sometimes takes a little extra reason to convince them to “fight” (bribe the boss, compromise with coworkers who don’t know they like country yet...) for country on the at work radio.

Weekends are very often country radio’s best audience shares, which means that a top-performing station has to be much more actively involved than more passive radio brands do.

In addition to “at work,” as a major part of lifestyle orientation, country radio must reflect usage of the station at soccer games, yard sales, outdoor activities, going to the movies, attending church, doing chores like laundry, shopping, cooking for the week, doing homework, going to school.

You'll find winning country stations rewarding great bosses, terrific teachers, smart students, for good reason.

Country radio users increasingly have other media begging for their time and attention in all of those places.

They’ll choose media, perhaps without even thinking about it, that appear to reflect their needs and values - at every time and in every place of their busy lifestyles.

Each time you open a mic, ask yourself what "he or she" is doing right now.

Reflect that in your content.

Even better, be there with 'em.

Strong Feelings = Strong Ratings

Toronto researcher Jeff Vidler recently showed me a new online approach to real time programming analysis which inventories down to the second the feelings of the viewer or listener as they watch video or listen to audio.

In a very short clip of a sports talk show the audience was curious, engaged, interested, excited, then confused, bored, disturbed and then tuned off.

The more deeply-felt positive emotions, ranging from amused to happy, the higher the level of usage.

Negative ones, like ranges of annoyed or apathetic, don’t take very long to cost attention span at the very least and lose a listener at the most.

Sales and management’s job is to push to use every minute to help them make money.

Talented programmers and personalities are able to find a way to do that by keeping the audience’s feelings positively engaged and their interest level high, relating all their content informatively and engagingly.

Then, there’s the majority of us, the majority of the time.

We've been reading the same lines on the same cards for too many years.

As you air check yourself, listen for great storytelling - immediate, local and personal - and count the positive emotions you feel.

Weak/no feelings = weak/no ratings.

Why I Am A Brian McColl Fan

The guy behind this is Dublin-based talent coach and presenter Brian McColl. Bookmark his page, subscribe to his weekly E-zene, attend his seminars. You'll thank me,

The Very Best Medium For Marketing Your Radio Station

The top two quintiles of radio users (heaviest users) are all reached by radio (100%) in an average week, more than TV (94%), cable & TV networks (74%), daily newspapers (75%), weekly newspapers (46%), Sunday newspapers (76%), shopper newspapers (37%), magazines (75%) and outdoor (68%).

The best way to tell your heaviest-users about your product - both in terms of strategic benefits and recycling existing audience - is ON THE RADIO. 6 am to 6 am, heavy radio users spend 68% of their media time with radio. 6 am to midnight, the figure is 56%, compared to 34% for television.

29% of heavy radio users say they do not have a radio at work. 71% do. The heavy radio users, not surprisingly, also spend more time commuting than the average person - 59 minutes per day and 94% of them listen to a radio while commuting.

In car is the CUME sampling location for radio and AT WORK is the AQH-BUILDER location, the data on radio's heavy users clearly indicate.

Like someone said on Facebook the other day: "the good news is the bad news changes every day."

I think you're going to want to understand these trends, looking at them locally, and start thinking about their implications for your future.

Morning television is advertising on radio trying to get our morning audience to listen to TV at home as they start their day. There's a message to US there.

Tell your usage story compellingly, on your own radio station.

Is Your Phone Smart Enough?

I think you know: I love this monthly update for fun and content, drive by listener values.

• Consumer Confidence rises
• Make careful purchases, be price conscious, stick to a budget
• Practicality, Focus on "Needs" up from Dec-10
• Nearly one in four optimistic about “fewer” layoffs over next six months
• $3.36/gal pump price expected at end of month
• Walmart continues to win in Apparel
• Consumer Migration: Prescription Drugs
• UPward 90 Day Outlook compared to Jan-10, Jan-09…DOWN from Jan-07
• What’s Hot? How smart is your phone?

(click for the full report) The BIGresearch Consumer Intentions & Actions™ Survey monitors over 8,000 consumers each month providing unique insights & identifying opportunities in a fragmented and transitory marketplace, January 2011 (Respondents surveyed 1/4 - 1/11/11)

How To Make Money At Music

94.9 KUOW/Seattle's Steve Scher snagged me with a teaser to his show yesterday:

"...industry analysts and executives have bemoaned the imminent death of the music industry ever since the birth of the Internet. In reality it's only the record business that's in peril. Album sales once built musical empires. Now touring is the cornerstone of an artist's financial success. Bands who make the road their home are not just insulated from the drop in record sales — they can be profitable! How can you succeed in the modern music industry? Tune in to find out."

The podcast is worth a listen as local booking agent Ali Hedrick talks about the end of record labels and the beginning of management companies/360 deals. Ali brags that she always tries to have tickets to her events available at venues so fans can buy them with no service charges as well (though of course the majority of tickets still sell including "convenience" charges).

Then, this morning, "Lee Brice" emailed to offer to sell me tickets direct from the artist to his shows, cutting out yet another "middle man."

It will be interesting to see if this "added value" approach can provide a long-term business model that keeps musicians playing and music buyers smilin' - while getting more dollars into the hands of creative types as well as lower prices or a better experience to the consumer with less of a "cut" for agents, brokers and traditional exec's.

I can dream, can't it?

A Firm Grasp On The Obvious

FACTOID #1: 15% of radio diaries have been filled out in advance by the time the diary week is supposed to begin. This certainly underscores the importance of being top of mind in unaided recall.

FACTOID #2: 0% of PPM listening is reported even a second before it's been DONE.

In either case, it pays to become so ingrained in your regular user's habit patterns that they know in advance that they plan to use you several times tomorrow.

Are you prepping daily ways to achieve that?

Turning Calamity Into Action

• "Let's not let this tragedy pass without looking inward to see what more we can do with our radio stations. Not because it's good for business, but because it's the right thing to do." -- Radio Ink Publisher Eric Rhoads
  
  
• "We are deeply saddened and deeply angered by the shooting of Congresswoman Gabrielle Giffords, members of her staff, Judge John Roll, and the constituents, including a 9-year-old child, who had assembled with her outside of a Tucson grocery store today. We know the deep pain and horror that all the family members and loved ones who have been made victims by this man and his gun are going through. We wish we didn’t, but we know it too well. We were there almost 30 years ago, dealing with the doctors, the hospital, the surgeons, and so much uncertainty. We were there coping with the horror of bullet wounds to the head, not knowing if Jim would live or die or what kind of life he would have. We were there hoping and praying for the best, that his life would be spared and the damage to his brilliant mind would be minimal. We want all the families to know that we were there then, and we are with them now. Our thoughts, our hopes - we pray that they can feel them and know just a small measure of peace. We pray that they understand how committed we long have been to making our beloved country a place where gun violence doesn’t happen so easily and destroy so many. We offer our condolences to those who have lost their loved ones. We offer our assistance, in any way that it might be helpful, to those who have survived and will struggle, as we have, to heal from the unspeakable horror of gun violence." With our love and prayers, -- Jim and Sarah Brady

Allow me to humbly submit this for your thoughtful consideration.

The Geeks Are Gone Now

The annual CES in Las Vegas attracts a couple hundred thousand of them from around the world who have one thing in common. They all want to be the first to own this year's "hot new thing."

As you listen to them in the media today, please keep a cool head and remind yourself that you'll never hear from the majority of the touch screen tablet computers running to catch up with iPad now.

“The thing I’m hearing most consistently from Toyota and other automakers is that HD Radio is giving them something to work with when it comes to radio,” -- Emmis chief technology officer and Broadcaster Traffic Consortium president Paul Brenner.

He claims that FM is an analog technology with very limited capability,” pointing to Toyota’s new Entune multimedia system as one of the ways automakers are incorporating HD into their digital strategy so that the user interface is consistently digital. Brenner contends that HD is helping broadcasters “stay in the fight.”

According to A&O's Roadmap perceptual tracking study, the majority of our listeners are not quite ready to jump on these new fads.

Only 2.2% of country listeners reported being "very likely" to buy HD Radio in the next 12 months.

Broadband access to the internet in vehicles had considerably more potential.

2010 A&O Country Roadmap study of 8,867 country listeners across the USA and Canada (1.6% 12-17, 6% 18=34, 13.6% 25-34, 20% 35-44, 32.5% 45-54, 19.8% 55-64, 5.7% 65-74, .7% 75+, 25.3% male, 74.7% female)

The 2011 study will be fielding in coming weeks, with results updated at the A&O pre-CRS client seminar from 1-5 pm, March 1st in Nashville.

Bad Weather

The following story is being used here as an excuse to rant again about a pet peeve of mine. It probably won't be the last time I blog about what a lousy job most voices on the radio do relating weather updates.

Last week a client GM sent along this RBR report and asked:

"So does this mean things have changed so much that we should just dump weather and play more music? Don't know if I totally buy this? This is awful for radio."

Michael O'Malley, always the voice of reason, points out that things may not be as bad as it appears. "Too many questions we don't know about the survey question or sample including what context this is asked in? A poll of who? How was the question phrased? Did they have more than one choice? RBR leaves all that important-for-perspective info out."

However, O'Malley adds: "It's no secret though that for music stations with 18-49 making up at least some substantial portion of the audience composition, the interest in all services continues to decline - markedly so if they're 'formal.' As a listener I can find out about the news, weather and last night's lottery numbers on my smart phone while listening to my favorite song on my favorite station and not have to wait for anything formal. Doesn't mean radio has diminished in my estimation (I'm there for the music, fun, talent, etc), just that I'm not using for these particular services at the moment. We don't see that aspect reflected in this article either.

"'Breaking' however is another story; the interested in 'breaking' is significantly greater. We've also known for a while that TV has taken over in the kitchen vs. the bedroom and car. Be long on organic and short on formal. Program for how I'm being used right now."

That very day, I played morning show airchecks of every station in a client market for for our cluster's crew so that we could all talk about things we must do to stand out and be better. Weather was pretty much the same on every station in town except one (the CHR, the jock did a great job briefly relating it and making it fun). Everyone else was 30% chance of precip, considerable clouds, blah blah.

Everyone agreed after listening, radio's voice tracked approach to weather has become irrelevant. The cluster Operations Manager/PD, as if to make O'Malley's point, pulled out his smart phone and showed that he can get current conditions, temp and even a ten day forecast anytime he wants it.

Yet, we all continue to talk up the same old weather jingles with the NWS forecast verbatim up to a call letter stinger at the end just like radio did decades ago.

Most of us, face it, are pretty much "average" at most of what we do and that is no longer acceptable with anything in a multi-media world of ubiquitous information, choice, personalization, micro-local and customization.

If we can't do info differently and exceptionally, let's stop wasting listeners time with drivel.

2.3? Or, 5.3?

Arbitron's Hispanic Radio Today report showing that the country format's share of Hispanic listening in PPM is less than half of what it is in diaries shines a fresh spotlight on something pretty scary, even as the radio ratings giant touts its sample improvements in the latest monthly report to clients.

Country listeners have always been very cooperative in participating with the ARB sampling technique. They have always been very loyal to their favorite station and proud to write it down.

As a matter of fact, ARB actually used an analysis called "neural networks" back in the mid-1990’s when they first implemented the DiaryLink computer for client diary reviews in Columbia as a means of looking for common elements in comments written in the back of respondents' diaries that might provide a key as to why people send the books back and others do not.

Neural networks involve pattern recognition and search randomly through all the words people write in the books and count repetitive words or phrases. Based on all of the comments on thousands of diaries, here are the most commonly-used words written in ARB books during the summer of 1994, when they did the first neural networks study on 40,000 diaries which had just been computerized in full, for example:

1. I love Rush.
2. I hate Rush
3. Thank you for the dollar, I enjoyed participating in your survey and giving you my opinions.
4. I love country music.
5. I hate rock.

All of ARB's attempts since that time to get more diaries back from 18-34 and ethnic homes, which for many years have had the lowest response rates (even worse now, due to cell phone only households!), have really been directed at just the opposite kind of people than the ones who wrote those responses.

My theory:

It is possible, as a result, that country listeners are returning just as many diaries as always and maybe even willingly carry meters too, but their impact on the sample may be much less in situations where young males and ethnic (Hispanic, Asian and African-American) homes are having a positive impact.

In short, I believe that the country format has a very 21st Century marketing problem that mirrors the reality of the new America.

If we want to continue to do as well in the coming decade as we have in the past, we are going to have to find a means of reaching and converting young males and minority families.

I hope that the Media Ratings Council continues to study the possibility of setting sample targets for the number of households as well as just the number of diaries/meters and establish geographic proportionality goals based on actual population figures. PPM's multiple weighting factors further act to distort realities in many cases.

The result would be more stable rating estimates.

McGraw Greets 2011 With Peak Career Events

"Once you become a superstar, a lot of opportunities present themselves to an artist like Tim..." (to quote Nashville Answer Man Neil Haislop), and Tim is taking full advantage right now as he sits at #1 with "Felt Good On My Lips," and...announces his new "Emotional Traffic Tour" ...AND stars in a major hit movie (with Gwyneth Paltrow, Garrett Hedlund And Leighton Meester In "Country Strong," that's opening this Friday, plus THE TIM TOUR with LUKE BRYAN and THE BAND PERRY.

Ticket sales will begin on January 15th; for further details visit Tim's website. Fans can get the latest updates on the “Emotional Traffic Tour” by joining McGraw’s fan club or via Facebook or Twitter. Outback Steakhouse will be a sponsor of the tour, which will be promoted nationally by Live Nation.

McGraw ALSO delivered “The Journey to Super Bowl 45,” the opening tease to the FOX NFL Sunday pre-game show last Sunday on FOX.

“Felt Good On My Lips,” McGraw’s latest single, is No. 1* on Billboard’s Country Songs chart and has topped Mediabase’s Canadian chart for three consecutive weeks. The song is one of two bonus tracks included on his new double-CD collection, Number One Hits (Curb Records), which includes 22 other chart-topping singles.

McGraw will then be discussing the film in a series of television appearances that includes “Late Show with David Letterman” tonight (1/4), “Good Morning America” and “Late Night with Jimmy Fallon” tomorrow (1/5), “Chelsea Lately” (1/6) and “The Martha Stewart Show” (1/7).

Variety called Country Strong a “rare ensemble piece in which all four principals are not only compellingly drawn but handled with an astute sense of dramatic balance” while CMT Insider noted: “Tim McGraw proves once again just what a fine actor he is.”

Figures Lie

Competitive revenue estimates have always been a very tricky game, since some owners refuse to report and others exaggerate or minimize what they do share with the auditing firms.

One thing is for sure, though, in the Inside Radio readers poll estimates for 2011. The recession is over for radio and spring flowers are already starting to bloom.

"Digital dollars are growing in importance for many stations, but their impact on the bottom line remains fairly small according to most readers. Four-in-ten say digital and interactive revenue will represent just 1%-3% of 2011 billings. One-in-five (21%) predict they’ll account for 4%-6% of ad revenue with 13% predicting they’ll be worth 7%-10%. Just 5% of respondents expect 11% or more of 2011 revenue at their station or cluster to come from digital. Perhaps the biggest surprise is the number who thinks online is still a revenue dud: nearly one-in-five (19%) say digital/interactive will account for less than 1% of their billings this year."

As we move forward into the year, I hope those percentages go DOWN, not UP.

Here's why:

Half of Inside Radio readers responding to our year-end survey said their station or cluster’s revenue goal is mid-single digits or higher. More than one-in-five (22%) say their goal is 10% or higher compared to last year, with nearly three-in-ten (28%) facing a 2011 goal that’s up 6%-10% over 2010. Roughly one-third of readers (31%) say their revenue goal is up 1%-5% this year with 12% budgeting for a flat year. Revenues did recover more quickly than some expected in 2010 and that may be one reason why 5% of readers who took our survey said they expect revenue to decline this year. The industry was fairly split on 2010. Slightly more than half (53%) said their station or cluster reached its revenue goal last year, with 47% saying they missed the target.

If the most optimistic and productive half of the Inside Radio readers do hit their goals and traditional revenues go up for the top half of stations between six and ten+ percent, that could make their percentage of revenues from online and NTR activities drop, even though total dollars from all sources go UP.

E-marketers may fail to report it that way in the coming year, but wouldn't THAT be a delightful thing?

Hispanic Listening: PPM Isn't As Kind To Country As Diaries Were

Hispanic Radio Today 2010 is just out from Arbitron (click to download the pdf) and it offers a detailed look at the radio listening habits and consumer insight among U.S. Hispanics.

First, let me correct the record now that we have the full results.

Two weeks ago I predicted that country's share of Hispanic listening in the report was going to be down into the two's. That's only partially true, as the diary markets in the national averages rescued us more than just a little bit (click the graphics to enlarge them).

Are we a 2.3? Or a 5.3 share of their listening??

In 2011, let's resolve to understand why the PPM panel seems to under-represent country's ethnic listening, especially from the 2010 census' fastest-growing segment of the U.S. population ... or were Hispanics writing in diaries listening they didn't actually do?

Seems unlikely to me.