If You Think 2010 Is One Year Away, (When It Comes To Ratings) You're Wrong

When the latest population estimates are updated this year at Arbitron, Nielsen and Eastlan on October 1, it will have been seven years since the size of local demographic cells were based on hard, actual data from the 2000 census. Similarly, BBM employs Statistics Canada census data as well as projections and estimates from Pitney Bowes MapInfor.

From the get-go, it was immediately two years out of date.

Since that time, each fall, the official "best estimations/projections" of growth, movement or population loss from the federal Office of Management and Budget which affect your target audience and sample come into play right in the midst of the first month of the autumn ratings period, which can help or hurt stations and formats.

It's almost time for 'the big reset,' when we find out how good those projections have been. In 2011 and 2012, the population numbers get as 'real' as they can be, like they do once every decade.

How familiar are you with the population changes in your metro and total survey areas as they will impact your cume, average quarter hour audience and shares in sixty days?

If you don't know the size of the playing field, how can you possibly win the game?

I Can't Top Bob Michaels

.. for his experience and expertise as an independent handicapper of the race just starting between Nielsen/Cumulus, Arbitron and Eastlan, but the most interesting development to me that I'll be anxious to see more about: data emerging as Nielsen recruits by address, not telephone.

If this works, it won't be too long before ARB and BBM in Canada do it too, I'll bet.

Inside Radio's Frank Saxe talked yesterday to Cumulus COO John Dickey, who claims that it will enlist a larger number of panelists than Arbitron has used in condensed markets. “That’s going to reduce the ridiculous bounces and very high margin of errors which led to a lack of confidence in buying our medium. That alone is going to go along way to introducing a high level of credibility in our medium.”

By recruiting diarykeepers by address, not the telephone, he estimates Nielsen will enlarge the potential sample by up to 40% to include cell phone-only households and people with unlisted numbers. They’ve also committed to oversampling hard-to-reach demos like 18-34.

As with all surveys, there are a lot of moving parts, but it seems to me that this one, especially, will be an important metric to track very carefully and hopefully.