Watts Versus Gladwell: Should We Target The Influentials Or Not?

This I know: targeting heavy radio users who love country music, your radio station and who enjoy giving their opinions in market research makes for a highly-productive target .. if you want to grow your audience as reported in ratings (vs the 'real' audience).

I used to think that you could find 'the influentials' among them, build buzz for your brand and get them to tell their friends about the good things you do. It sounds alluring: marketing becomes more efficient, less expensive.

Now, I'm not so sure about that.

"If Influentials cannot tip a trend into existence--and if success in a networked society is quite random--what's a poor marketer to do? Is there any way to intentionally infect people with an idea or a product?" -- Is the Tipping Point Toast? -- Duncan Watts

Thanks, Radio-Info. I Appreciate The Ink

Fall book format trends – the consultants size them up for T-R-I...

Jaye Albright says:

“In a word, country is all about values, and our 30+ females, especially, are all about the values of Christmas, so there’s almost no way to defend against a solid Christmas music AC in the final 3-4 weeks of the survey, other than to have a terrific first two phases. When you study the stations that did well, that is the common thread, by and large. Either that, or they had a huge TSL driver in the final Phase, like San Diego’s KSON, which paid off its year-long ‘Double Your Paycheck’ giveaways by awarding a $50,000 annual bonus in early December. But as for country in a number - 2,160! That, believe it or not, is a PPDV [Persons Per Diary Value] in men 18-24 that I saw as I broke out a book for a client. Not only that, but Women 18-24 was 1,503 and Men 25-34 was 1,478. These extremely high levels of sample weights are becoming more common and they create huge problems for any station with geographical hot pockets and other zip areas where they aren’t as strong, like country, which tends to have its listeners in the ex-urban and suburban areas, not the central city. Fewer non-ethnic 25-54 diaries and more weighting makes each book more of a crap shoot, creating huge wobbles. [Albright colleague] Mike O’Malley just wrote a blog post about seeing his first 1,000 PPDV a few weeks ago (A Thousand to One) and since then we’ve been hearing it’s being seen in market after market. Hopefully, Dr. Ed Cohen’s Arbitron diary sample improvement team is hard at work on it now. Finally, country has had such a great run over the last several years that there are many markets with just too many stations to avoid a bit of share compression, even when there is a strong leader.”

A Miracle on a Pensacola Street

The WYCT-sponsored-event happened more than a month ago, but it was amazing to find the story on HUD's website today: Christmas came two days early for Jamvis Armour and his family as they walked through the door of a new house given to them by a grateful community.

The De-Idolizing (and AO-CRSization) of Phil Stacey

A & O's Annual Pre-CRS Seminar, Tuesday, March 4, 2008's special guest performer got a rave review for his performance yesterday at WUSN, Chicago.

You are cordially invited to our meeting if you are an A & O client or work at a station not in a competitive situation with us.

BUT, you must RSVP to receive an invitation. Email Jaye@albrightandomalley.com or Mike@albrightandomalley.com to get one.

Tim McGraw Tours Solo In '08

After wrapping the most successful consecutive multi-year tour in country music history last year, “Soul2Soul II,” with wife Faith Hill, Tim McGraw returns to touring in 2008 as a solo act.

McGraw headlined and sold out shows since 1993, will kick-off “Tim McGraw ‘08 Live Your Voice Tour” in May with special guest Jason Aldean and Halfway To Hazard. 

The first leg of the tour is slated to launch in Tampa, Florida on May 9 and will wrap in July 6 in Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania.

Roadmap 2008

Your opinion really counts. Help make the radio you listen to better by clicking on this link and taking a few minutes to complete our survey.

Or, paste this link:

http://www.surveymonkey.com/s.aspx?sm=PDuvNVyaUHgsrmRB_2bGd5RQ_3d_3d

into your browser.

NRF Study: Valentine EXPERIENCES Are Hot This Year

“Consumers are expected to invest time and money on gifts of experience this year, in addition to staple Valentine’s Day gifts,” said Vice President of Strategy for BIGresearch Phil Rist. “Whether it’s a weekend getaway or a night out on the town, consumers are looking for quality rather than quantity.”

Adults aged 25-34 plan on spending the most this year with the average person planning to shell out $160.37. Young adults will be the second biggest spenders, with the average 18-24 year old expected to spend $145.59, followed by 45-54 year olds ($117.91), 35-44 year olds ($116.35) and 55-64 year olds ($110.97).

As cupid prepares for his biggest day of the year, consumers are also planning special ways to celebrate with their loved ones. According to the National Retail Federation’s 2008 Valentine’s Day Consumer Intentions and Actions Survey, the average consumer plans to spend $122.98 on Valentine’s Day, similar to last year’s $119.67. Total spending on Valentine’s Day is expected to reach $17.02 billion.*

Traditional gifts, such as candy, flowers and jewelry will see a slight decrease in popularity this year with more consumers preferring gifts of experience and gift cards. Almost half (48.2%) of all consumers plan to celebrate Valentine’s Day with a special night out, compared to 45.3 percent last year, and 12.3 percent will give a gift card, compared to 11.3 percent last year. Greeting cards still remain the most popular choice, though the number of people planning to purchase one is down from last year (56.8% vs. 62.8% last year). Nearly 48.0 percent of consumers will buy candy, 35.9 will buy flowers and 11.8 percent will buy clothing.

“Valentine’s Day is a great time to get creative with gift options,” said NRF President and CEO Tracy Mullin. “Most people agree that it’s the thought that counts, but shelves will also be filled with traditional gifts for those who want to celebrate the old-fashioned way.”

Six out of ten consumers plan on celebrating this year, and of those celebrating, the majority plan on spending the most on their significant other or spouse ($79.99). The survey also found that consumers plan to spend slightly more on friends ($5.75 vs. $4.93 in 2007), children’s classmates and teachers ($4.05 vs. $3.35) and co-workers ($3.02 vs. $2.40) than they did last year.

When it comes to real puppy love, 17.2 percent of celebrators also plan to spend on their pets this Valentine’s Day. Spending on pets for the holiday is estimated to reach $367 million.

Not surprisingly, men will again dish out the most this year, spending an average of $163.37 on gifts and cards, compared to an average of $84.72 spent by women.

What's It Like To Be Recruited To Be An ARB Diarykeeper?

Everyone who wants to understand how 'the system' which controls their life works ought to spend to time at this site, thinking about the marketing implications (and potential for abuse) it opens.

If you received our postcard or letter, then you are one of the few people in your area chosen to tell radio stations what you listen to.

Sara And Willie At The Superbowl

Sara Evans will be performing for VIPs at the NFL Super Bowl XLII Tailgate Party outside of the University of Phoenix Stadium on game day February 3.

After performing a full concert for those in attendance, Evans will join Willie Nelson on-stage during his set to sing the Willie classic “Mamas Don't Let Your Babies Grow Up To Be Cowboys.” The duet will be televised on the FOX pre-game festivities.

To make the day even more special, Evans will be attending her first Super Bowl game with her son Avery and friends.

Neil Haislop Goes Ga-Ga Over Ga-arth

His photos and review will be online tomorrow, meanwhile here's a sneak preview of it all:

How is it possible for a performer to take himself out of the game for nearly 8 years, only to come back late last year and re-assert himself at a level of performance and consumer demand as great as the day he departed? Well, 99% percent of the time, that would be impossible, but not for Garth Brooks.

Stepping back on stage to support a new disc collection, to help fight breast cancer and to honor and support the firefighters of California, Garth proved again that he's still "Garthgantua," a bigger than life superstar, encased in the body of still charming and humble, real human being.

His 9 consecutive sold-out shows in Kansas City, were the first proof that Garth has remained a major American music icon. Country radio rushed to his press conference to announce those first shows then to see what was up, and subsequently supported him by playing his old and new music, sending his first solo single in nearly a decade, "More Than a Memory," to #1 in record time. It all became one of the biggest events of the year in country music for 2007.

Just a short time later, after spawning an idea to pay tribute to and support California's firefighters who'd fought and won a battle with huge wildfires that ravaged Southern California, Garth has created already one of the biggest events of 2008 that will be hard to beat.
Scheduling 5 full shows in two days at L.A.'s Staples arena seemed an impossible task. When asked how he'd get through it, he said, "You just do it." And that he did, for 5 complete shows, including the first show Friday, that was broadcast live on CBS TV, 85,000 fans came saw and loved Garth all over again.

SATURDAY NIGHT A NIGHT TO REMEMBER
By Saturday night's final show that began at 9:30pm, if Brooks had any ring rust before starting the run of 14 shows in Kansas City and L.A., it had vanished. What the fans at Saturday's show got was absolutely vintage Garth, as exciting, musical and unpredictable as any of his shows during the 1990s.
From the first note to the last, all 17,500 fans in Staples Saturday night stood up and never sat down through 24 songs, 2 hours and 20 minutes of non-stop hits. Garth and his old magic were back!

Garth had promised to give his all for that final show, not hampered by time constraints of getting 17,500 fans out and back into the venue for the next show...and, give it he did as he kicked things off with a joint jumpin' version of "Callin' Baton Rouge." Halfway into the show, he had a little help from wife, Trisha Yearwood, whose entrance brought the house down. They performed a passionate version of "In Another's Eyes," followed by Garth subbing for Don Henley on version of "Walkaway Joe" that was astonishingly great.

By the encore, not yet satiated fans wanted more. Garth delivered again with, "Ain't Going Down 'til Sun Comes Up." At that point, he'd given everything he had and the crowd felt it and loved him for putting on such an amazing performance, after having given it up for two other audiences that same day.

Listeners Are Doing More (..and MORE!) Other Things As They Listen To You

How much media can any one person consume? According to BIGresearch’s latest Simultaneous Media Survey (SIMM 11), in which 15,727 people participated, the only way for people to keep up with the deluge of media options is to multitask with other media. The level of simultaneous media usage in SIMM 11 increased over SIMM 10 for all major forms of media.
“Technology is creating new media options faster than most people can assimilate and is causing more multitasking,” said Gary Drenik, President of BIGresearch. “Unfortunately for marketers faced with the challenges of an uncertain economy and the need to increase marketing ROI, new media options are impacting how consumers use traditional media. Specifically, TV’s influence on consumers to purchase products declined, whereas new media options such as web radio, satellite radio, instant messaging and blogging all increased. Consumers seem to be seeking information from digital platforms while TV has traditionally been viewed as a brand building medium, which isn’t providing the requisite information,” said Drenik.
This does not mean all traditional media are declining in influence. Media that can target, be timely, and deliver value to consumers, such as coupons/direct mail, radio, yellow pages, newspapers and newspaper inserts all increased in influence to purchase as consumers are looking to stretch budgets in a slowing economy.
Other Key Findings from SIMM 11 include:

• Regular simultaneous media consumption for online, newspapers, magazines, radio, TV and direct mail is up from 1% to 35%, depending on the medium.
• Channel surfing remains the #1 regular activity engaged in during TV commercials with 41.2% doing so followed by:
  • 33.5% talk with others in the room or by phone
  • 30.2% mentally tune out
  • 5.5% regularly fully attend to commercials
• In SIMM 11, eating continues to be the #1 activity people engage in while using media followed by doing housework, doing laundry, cooking and talking on phone.
• Top simultaneous media used when reading a newspaper are: watch TV, listen to the radio and go online.
• For people listening to radio, other media simultaneously used are (top 3): engage in other activities, go online and read the newspaper.
• Web radio usage is up in all dayparts.
• Cable is where most TV viewing takes place.
• Dayparts which had highest number of media types increase usage over SIMM 10 – 1:00 am to 6:00 am, Noon to 4:30 pm, 4:30 pm to 7:30 pm, 7:30 pm to 11:00 pm and 10:00 am to Noon.
• Blogging increases in all dayparts.

Contact, for more info: Chrissy Wissinger, BIGresearch, Worthington, Ohio - (614) 846-0146/chrissy@bigresearch.com. To receive a recap of the key findings, click http://info.bigresearch.com/

Ads That Grab And Hold Attention; Create Buzz

Sonny Melendrez can't stop broadcasting, and he has brought his Texas and California radio audiences over the years with him to the internet these days. He clearly "gets" content, so when he sends an email under the subject line "Clevertising," I couldn't resist a click.

There's a lesson in these powerful images: creativity is mashing up two or more familiar things in a surprising, delightful way and there's nothing stronger in proving what your brand stands for than real people in authentic situations engaging with it.

Los Angeles Is About To Catch (Garth) Fire Again

Garth Brooks met the press yesterday morning at Staples Center in Los Angeles where he begins his historic five full shows in two days. The conference was webcast live from http://www.garthbrooks.com/.

The shows, today and tomorrow, are to benefit the firefighters of California who fought last year's disastrous wildfires that burned millions of acres of Southern California from Los Angeles to San Diego.

Garth, who once had saved people from an Oklahoma grass fire, was quick to explain why he wanted to help out the people of California.

"I'm from Oklahoma, I know a lot about grass fires, I know a lot about wind and fire and I've never, ever seen wind and fire like I saw on television and the fact that these guys (firefirghters) are not fighting on a flat surface like we do at home. They deserve much respect and all the help they can get, so I feel lucky to be a part of this. Raising money for this is part of this...what's most important for me is where that money goes and how that money is distributed."

Garth then thanked the L.A.Times/McCormick Foundation for taking over the logistical cost of collecting and distributing the funds raised by his concerts, noting that the administrative part takes a lot of the funds raised and expressed his gratitude that all of the funds raised by his concerts will go to giving support to L.A. area firefighters.

(photo) Garth was presented a 5 disc plaque by Staples Center to commemorate his history making 5 full shows in two days at the venue. Brooks was also presented a certificate of achievement and made an honorary Cal-Fire fighter by a group of firefighters the represented all the different agencies that had been engaged in battling the West Coast holocaust.

Creating A Social Network With Fan Photos

WZZK, Birmingham's web logo says it all: "Connecting You to Music, News, and Family Fun"

"Another great concert in Birmingham? That means more great Fan Fotos from you! If you took pictures at the George Strait/Little Big Town concert Thursday night at the BJCC, we want to see 'em! Send us your best Fan Fotos and we'll post 'em on the website! (Don't forget to include your name and the name of the artist in the e-mail! - also, watch your filesizes! If your e-mail attachment is larger than 5mb, I will never see it - if you have more than 5mb worth of Fan Fotos, please send 'em all, just break it up into more than one e-mail.)"

Are any of your listeners flying to Los Angeles to see Garth this weekend? Will they have their cell phone cameras with them? Are you going to talk about their videos and photos on Monday? Just askin'...

Let's Get Big & Rich To Ring That Bell Every Day

The headline: Stocks recover from sharp losses. And, wouldn't you know that country music played a role in the market turnaround??

One-hundred-twenty-million people world-wide watched as John Rich, Dee Snider and Carnie Wilson of CMT's new reality show "Gone Country" rang the closing bell at the New York Stock Exchange today. On what has been a rollercoaster ride at the NYSE the last 24 hours, the mood on the trading floor was optimistic. As John strutted on the floor he heard "Yee Haw!" and "Welcome to our City!" from the NYSE stock specialists. "Hitting the gavel at the New York Stock Exchange and closing out the day with the stock market up over 300 points was exhilarating," said Rich. "My heart was racing and my blood was pumping. Not a bad place to wind up for an ol' country boy."

The NYSE bell ringing was part of a two-day media blitz for “Gone Country.” CMT’s “Gone Country” premieres with a special one-hour episode on Friday, Jan. 25 at 8:00 PM – 9:00 PM, ET/PT. The premiere episode of “Gone Country” will air across other MTV Networks, including VH1, TV Land and MTV2 (Check local listings for airdates and times). John Rich takes seven established performers from every realm of the entertainment and music industries, including Bobby Brown, Wilson, Snider, Diana DeGarmo, Julio Iglesias Jr., Maureen McCormick and Sisqó and immerses them in all things country for a chance to break out as the next big country superstar.

Pictured (l-r): Pamela Yi, Director Investor Relations, Viacom; John Rich; Tom Veit, Euronext Executive Vice President, NYSE; Dee Snider; Carnie Wilson.

More info from Warner Bros. Records Publicity: Tree Paine (615) 214-1500 Tree.Paine@wbr.com or Brandi Sanford (615) 214-1500 Brandi.Sanford@wbr.com

Get Mooned By A Bovine

Did I post anything back in September when CJJR, Vancouver, did "Triple Your Pay" last fall? NOOOO, but heck they didn't have a cool graphic like this for that contest! (although it did really move the needle for them, judging from the Fall '07 BBM).

I just received the promo email from Clay St. Thomas & Karen Daniels of The JRfm Waking Crew:

Moolah the JRfm Cash Cow will return Monday morning (January 28) and she’s bringing a ton of cash and a milk pail full of Rascal Flatts tickets. Just listen for your cue to call 604-280-9370 and win big cash. Everyone who plays wins a pair of tickets to the nearly sold out Rascal Flatts concert, and these are great tickets!

You'll have a chance to play two times per day, Monday to Friday. But as an Online Insider Member you will get advance notice of the times when the JRfm Cash Cow contest is played. Watch your email later this week for the JRfm Cash Cow schedule.

WSOC's "Stout Pull"

The promo:

" .. the first ever 103.7 WSOC Stout Pull, our idea of what a guitar pull should be, featuring Jake Owen, Lee Brice, Keith Anderson, and Trent Tomlinson on Wednesday, January 23rd at Coyote Joe’s, located at 4621 Wilkinson Blvd., in Charlotte. Doors open at 7p.m. and the show will begin at 9p.m. Ladies get in FREE and guys pay only 3 bucks and all proceeds will benefit the Loaves and Fishes food pantry..."

Why call it a Stout Pull? You'll have to ask OM DJ (Stout).

Faith And Live Nation Celebrate A Career Landmark

How would you like to win a Faith Hill plaque, commemorating over 30,000,000 albums sold worldwide? What if it was also autographed by Faith Hill, and had your name personally engraved on it? Feeling lucky? Enter To Win Now

One winner will be drawn every week, for four weeks. Must be at least 13 years of age to enter.Read complete official rules and regulations.

Our Believability Is Slipping

19.6% of Americans surveyed say they believe all or most of media news reporting. That’s down from 27.4% in2003. The perception is growing among Americans that the news media attempts to influence public opinion -- from79.3% strongly or somewhat agreeing in 2003 to 87.6% in 2007.

Frighteningly (to me and it sounds like to some others too - it may say as much about America right now as it does about the news media), Americans surveyed in the poll say that the most trusted national TV outlets, in descending order were Fox News (27.0%); CNN (14.6%); NBC News(10.90%); ABC News (7.0%); local news (6.9%); CBS News (6.8%); MSNBC (4.0%); PBS News (3.0%); and,CNBC (0.6%).

Large majorities:
-- See too much coverage of celebrities
-- Say media has more influence on children than parents
-- Say there's too much sex on TV
-- Support limits on advertising content surrounding children's shows

The new national poll was conducted by the Sacred Heart University Polling Institute and finds large majorities of Americans, 80.7%, pay no or very little attention to celebrities when they make political or public policy statements. This is down slightly from 81.9% found in a 2003 Sacred Heart Poll.

"Once again, Americans are loudly confirming they just don't care who Oprah or Magic Johnson support for President," said Jerry C. Lindsley, director of the SHU Polling Institute. He added, "Americans may be enjoying the free entertainment from Hollywood celebrities, but it's not moving them to the polls."

Three-fifths of Americans surveyed (59.1%) would rather see celebrities leave public policy-making to the experts and the voters. This is down somewhat from 69.5% in a 2003 SHU Poll. Another 31.7% suggested celebrities should publicly voice their political views. This is up somewhat from 27.6% in a 2003 Sacred Heart Poll.

“Americans know bias and imbalance when they see it and they don’t like it. When most service organizations strive for consumer satisfaction ratings in the high eighties to low nineties, an overall positive rating of 40.7% is disma. Americans know that it’s just not that hard to present
both sides and keep personal bias at home.” -- Jerry C. Lindsley, director of the Sacred Heart University Polling Institute

Most Americans (88.1%) did agree there was too much coverage of celebrities. (could there be some bias in this study? I wonder why the ratings of that coverage are so high?)

"The dissatisfaction with media content expressed by the majority of the American public could be viewed as an opportunity for media professionals to address issues that affect the American public as voters and citizens, not just as consumers and fans," stated James Castonguay, Ph.D., associate professor and chair of SHU's Department of Media Studies & Digital Culture. "At the same time, the American public views the Internet as a tool that can both educate and entertain," he added.

National poll respondents did see the Internet as having a positive impact. Three-quarters of Americans surveyed, 75.0%, agreed that the Internet is a positive educational supplement today.

A&O's Annual Pre-CRS Seminar, Tuesday, March 4, 2008

The event will be at the Country Hall Of Fame's Ford Theater, from 2:00 to 5:30 pm. So, If you are coming to CRS-08, be sure to arrive Tuesday before noon.

Keynote Speaker: Bill Black, Director, U.S. Store Marketing at Starbucks Coffee Company (officed in Atlanta).

Special Guest: Lyric Street artist, American Idol finalist Phil Stacey

A&O will update our "Roadmap '08" national country radio listener perceptual tracking study.

More info to come, soon! Admission is free, by invitation only. All A&O clients are invited of course. If you're not a client and would like an invitation, email Mike or Jaye.