Radio 2015: Perspective From A Very Savvy Friend

I want to turn on the echo chamber today:

Reed Bunzel is a veteran media executive with over 30 years of service in the radio, music, and digital media industries. He is president of Bunzel Media Strategies, a full service consulting and analytics firm that assists companies with industry research, analysis, business strategies, platform development, and communications/marketing.

     Remember the movie Sybil? That's the 1976 miniseries and film starring Sally Field, whose main character was alleged to have up to 13 different personalities, all struggling to coexist inside one body at the same time.

     I mention this because this week at the NAB/RAB Radio Show in Indianapolis I was having a conversation with a respected broadcaster (name withheld upon request) who compared the U.S. radio industry in 2014 to the Sybil character. Not in the sense that he thought the business was fraught with mental illness or that it needed psychotropic drugs in order to maintain a "normal" life, but because at any one time there are a number of distinct personalities inside this industry that give voice to its collective persona.

     While the analogy could be perceived as a bit of a stretch, a distinct parallel can be drawn between Sybil's internal voices and the discussions I've had with radio broadcasters these past few days at the Radio Show. All of these conversations (and some comments made at general sessions) have been fascinating, some of them are scary, and many of them contribute to a universe that seems founded more on perception than reality. Depending on whom you talk to, the American radio industry is a) healthy, b) doomed, c) challenged, d) blind, or e) all of the above.

Here's what I mean:

• In her now-traditional role of the industry's statistician, Wells Fargo Securities senior analyst Marci Ryvicker insisted radio's revenues will remain flat until broadcasters prove her wrong, with local and national spot revenues most likely going nowhere this year. She has a strong record of accurate forecasts, so her macroeconomic view can be trusted. Her prediction of "flat" growth is not a truth many attendees in the audience wanted to hear, but as Ryvicker so eloquently put it, "radio has a lot of shit."
• Several major group heads insisted that the radio remains strong and, while saddled with the uncertainties of change, its strengths far outweigh its weaknesses. Example: Cumulus Chairman Lew Dickey, while acknowledging myriad challenges, observed that radio is "America's daytime medium" and emphasized that its greatest audience occurs during the time when most commerce is conducted.
• RAB President/CEO Erica Farber stressed that digital is radio's most direct and imminent path to growth, a position self-avowed BS specialist Bob Hoffman (author of "The Golden Age Of B.S.") almost immediately refuted by declaring "online advertising is a fraud." While Hoffman quickly clarified that he really was referring only to display advertising, his "WTF" moment resonated long after he left the stage.
• Univision Radio President Jose Valle stated that digital audio streaming is a $20 million revenue line that produces cash flow for his company, and noted that "we don't abandon our over-the-air audience but we have to be where our listeners want us to be. Listeners dictate."
• Seconds later Emmis Chairman Jeff Smulyan insisted he's never made a dime from streaming, stressing instead how critical it is to get NextRadio functional in every smartphone sold in America, so consumers have access free FM radio rather than pay the near-usurious rates charged by major phone carriers. This move, Smulyan insists, will almost single-handedly propel the radio industry into the future.
• Of course, a healthy contingent of tech-heads are adamant that it's too late for either NextRadio (which is at the mercy of AT&T and Verizon) or HD Radio to shift the digital tide that has begun to rise - a tide, they insist, that will not float all boats.
• Then there's the die-hard cheerleaders who point to radio's 92% 12-plus reach and insist that all is good in the world of radio, despite measurable TSL erosion among younger demographics and the growth of such online digital services as Rdio, Spotify, iHeartRadio, and Pandora.
• These folks also tend to be harsh Pandora critics who don't grasp that the streaming service is a company, not an industry, and that if it didn't have to pay the performance royalty fees dictated by the Copyright Royalty Board (from which AM/FM radio is exempt), its margins actually could be far greater than those of many radio companies serving the same number of listeners.
• And then there are the "rapturists," those individuals who are convinced that radio's apocalypse is imminent, and nothing can be done to save it from the four horsemen who are fast approaching from the other side of the digital horizon. 

     I want to stress here that I am not trying to simplify the passions or opinions of radio broadcasters, or to declare the radio industry "psychologically unstable" or "mentally unfit." Far from it. But today (Sept. 12), as the Radio Show closes here in Indianapolis and we all go back to our regular roles in the radio business, we need to recognize that it's impossible to color the radio industry with one broad stroke. I'm constantly asked "what's the big take-away" or "what's the buzz at the show"?

    I understand the questions, but I don't have suitable answers. No one does. And that's because the radio business is comprised of many interconnected parts, with multiple priorities and goals, and no two perceptions (or personalities) are alike. Each of us knows what we know about our own corner of this business, and we are influenced by the factors that affect us personally and professionally.

     For instance, some broadcasters are being chased by debtors who have no option but to let them to continue kicking the can down the road in an endless game of tag that causes many folks to doubt the overall health of the industry. Others are ruled by fear of change and cringe at the approaching reality that spot revenue might just not be enough to get them through to retirement, or to identify a reasonable exit strategy. Still others are managing to generate small revenue gains through hard work and diligence, and are accepting that digital and social media can push real dollars to their bottom lines.

     In the movie and TV miniseries, Sybil was affected by what today is known as multiple personality disorder*. It's important here to draw a distinction between that and what I've mentioned above, which is radio's multiple personalities. Period. (Whether there's a disorder involved is open to discussion.

     My only point here is to initiate a conversation about the U.S.. radio industry as we head into the fourth quarter, and to introduce my new initiative, Radio 2015. This new "media intelligence platform" is designed to engage everyone in this wonderful business in a discussion about our collective fates, futures, and fortunes, and to offer actionable analysis and information to ensure that we are guided by intelligence rather than fear.

     You'll be hearing a lot more about Radio 2015 next week - and in the weeks to come. Meantime, I invite you to email me with any questions or comments you might have regarding the radio business, as well as suggestions about what you think needs to be addressed as we set our sights on tomorrow...and the next day.

*In a book titled "Sybil Exposed," author Debbie Nathan maintains that most of the story Shirley Mason, the "real" Sybil, was fabricated.

Selling Hits? Or Self-Interest?

“This is an unjust system that must be changed.” -- Lee Thomas Miller, songwriter/president of Nashville Songwriters Association International

“Every one of you has a vested interest in some part of the status quo, and every one of you is railing against some aspect of the status quo.” -- Representative Darrell Issa, a Republican of California.

I read the Peter Schweizer book "Extortion," so don't blame me for thinking that perhaps "here we go around again."  Last week’s House Judiciary Committee hearing was probably just another turning of the usual wheels.  Sound Exchange lobbies its friends and one-sided meetings are held in the chambers of Congress.  So, the NAB lobbies radio’s friends in Washington.  And, for yet another year, hopefully from radio's perspective a bill gets sidelined after more hearings are dutifully held. 

A second music licensing hearing is scheduled for June 25, with witnesses from ASCAP, the radio broadcasters, record labels and others, as well as Rosanne Cash. 

I think I know where she stands and I'll bet you know where I do.  It’s happened so many times over the years that it’s easy for both sides to get complacent.  If that happens and one year "opposition" (lobbying) doesn’t step up, legislation could actually pass.  Which is why it's more than a little comforting to see Cox now join several major radio groups in a direct deal with a major Nashville label.  A change in the political routine will be welcome and hopefully more reasonable heads are starting to prevail. 

Both sides could recognize that there’s a reasonable, fair middle ground that may settle the matter for once and for all. 

At least I did, until Michael Huppe at the New Music Seminar dropped a bomb, rhetorically asking "if FM radio went away tomorrow, would music sales go down or up?” displaying a chart that purported to show FM radio hurts music sales.

If he had admitted labels were asleep at the switch back when RCA owned Napster, peer to peer file sharing hurt music sales and then they gave a third of each sale to iTunes, he could have built some credibility with me, but FM radio?  Huh?  Trying to rewrite history by distorting facts makes it seem like he's not serious and not a win-win! 

The CMA has plenty of genuine research on all sorts of country music consumer bahavior including this from several years ago, directly contradicting that assertion with country radio fans, for example:

For my entire career, I worked as though radio, artists, labels, publishers and anyone who makes a living from music were all in the same business, promoting one another's best work. 

Creating new music hits is good for all of us.  Radio listeners hear them and buy 'em.  It's been that way for what seems like forever.

I know it, and so does anyone who follows the money in the music industry does too (I hope).

NAB probably has even more recent and relevant charts. 

In the upcoming hearing, someone will doubtless ask the music industry what percentage of their marketing budgets are spent on pursuing radio airplay.  Maybe they will even have some fancy graphs to show those millions that could be saved by promotion and marketing departments if it ever failed to drive sales.

After it's revealed what a large and still-productive number that is, someone should explain to Huppe that radio and the music business work best as a team.  Tearing that long-standing partnership apart with patently self-serving exaggerations won't be good for either music professionals or radio.

Artists and labels can make much more money from selling their hits, merch and concert tickets by use of radio as partners in promotion than they can distorting facts in order to sell music licenses.

MLK Day Must Have Been A Slow News Day For Radio's Trades

• Radio Ink's top story:  musicFIRST Slams NAB, Radio on Playlist Repetition
• Radio World: MusicFirst: Radio Song Repetition 'Shocking'
• RAIN:  Bill O’Reilly recommends Pandora
• Legendary programmer Bill Hennes wants us to factor in music sales data:  Programmers Take The Easy Way Out

NAB's Dennis Wharton, fortunately, was quick to add some facts to the fury:  “If the charge is that local radio plays popular music that listeners enjoy, we plead guilty."

In about three weeks each and every A&O&B client will know precisely how many of their listeners use Pandora and all other media choices at their fingertips and how satisfied their average listener is with their favorite radio station, thanks to Roadmap 2014.  If you're an A&O&B client, don't miss this free opportunity to get facts and stats to guide you in the coming year!

Weekly callout, online testing, other innovative music tests and mScore tracking are among the many tools that take the guesswork out of programming decision-making you should be using if you have concerns about your potential audience's music preferences.

You can literally ask a large number of your listeners whether they are tired of hearing a song on the radio, whether they'd like to hear it more, less or about the same.   Track this over many weeks, follow their guidance and watch repetition complaints go down and time spent with your radio station increase.

This isn't a new idea.  Radio has proven its effectiveness for more than 30 years.

Music sales numbers mean a lot to you if you're an artist, a publisher or a record company, but I hope my radio competition uses them determine their music rotations.  I'll test them with my target audience and beat them every time!
  
Finally, the only reason I'd be concerned about what Bill O'Reilly makes use of to get his music when he wants it would be if you know that he had previously cumed your radio station.

Sales Per Spin?

Hats off to HitShop Records honcho Skip Bishop for getting us all to think outside the box and buying this ad today which makes, as I read it, a powerful statement backing the NAB against Music First Coalition and Congressman Mel Watt's “Free Market Royalty Act."

Judging from these figures, it doesn't take very many spins on the monitored panels to generate impressive sales, the state which makes label success!

In fact it actually takes more spins to get the average song to "hook" and "test" with heavy radio users - which of course is the measurement driving radio's success.

It's nice to see that labels start getting returns on their investment in radio airplay pretty quickly.

Radio Companies Are Marketing Again

Once upon a time two or three very high profile TV production companies dominated both the NAB Radio Show hospitality suites and the exhibit hall floor.

Today, as a number of high profile radio programmers churn out music video-based TV spots for radio on their home computer, stations invite listeners to create spots for them via You Tube, every small town cable TV operation has the high-tech video/audio production bells and whistles that used to cost millions, TV production companies appear to be no-shows at the 2011 NAB.

However, at the risk of leaving out someone I may have missed yesterday I won't mention names, but I have run into at least eight different direct/interactive marketing for radio suppliers demonstrating impressive state of the art multi-media resources which are laden with innovative smart mobile, email internet and address-based geo- and values-targeted direct mail database-driven tricks which promote usage, regularity and relevancy not even the largest radio companies have in-house.

Lesson 1: if you're not marketing in some way, there are at least eight other stations in town which these folks are trying to sell new tactics which are designed to hurt your ratings shares.

Lesson 2: (from someone who has made this mistake): never market a poor product. Nothing will kill it faster than great marketing.

Lesson 3: if you have anything but a terrific product, you're especially vulnerable to lesson 1. It's called being a sitting duck.

"The Joy Of Cooking" For Radio Personalities"

If you will be at the NAB, here's where to go to meet the wonderful Valerie Geller, whose latest book, "BPR is over 500+ pages and will "officially" launch at the NAB bookstore on TUES APRIL 12 at 10-10:30 AM."

To be the first on your block to get a copy, click here.

Why I Love NAB's Radio Show

The sessions are eye-opening, the research presentations are always impressive and the free handout publications are almost worth the price of registering in themselves (almost, since you can click those links to view them free right now).

Then, there's the exhibits. For one, U.S. Tape & Label's new twist on the usual packets of radio bumper/window stickers.

They now also have a business card on adhesive tape. It would be great for a "Club (frequency)," "Party Line," "Cryin' Lovin' Leavin'" or "Lunchtime Request Cafe" host to remind listeners to stick the station phone and frequency on their telephone.

Also new: a window sticker designed to go on sliding glass patio doors, which can then be marketed as safety devices.

When you encounter something that's share-worthy, please add a comment and plug it!

Women Programmers To Get Recognition

The "MIW" Group just announced the nomination process is open for the first annual MIW Achievement in Programming Award.

The winner will be recognized during the Group PD Super Session on Thursday, September 24th from 10:30-11:45am at the 2009 NAB Fall Radio Show in Philadelphia, PA.

The MIW Achievement in Programming Award is designed to encourage the advancement of women in programming and to reward and recognize those who have achieved success in the field.

Criteria for Nomination:
1. Women who are at the Program Director level or higher (for example, Regional Program Director, Vice President of Programming) will be considered.
2. Candidates must be currently active in the field, and primarily responsible for programming a radio station, group, or individual or group of programs.
3. Candidates should have at least five years' experience in programming.
4. Candidates or those nominating candidates for the award must complete and submit the entry form available at www.radiomiw.com.

Anyone who would like to submit a recommendation of a potential candidate is encouraged to do so. All entries must be submitted to www.radiomiw.com by ­Friday, August 7th, 2009.

All submissions meeting the qualifying criteria will be reviewed and the winner will be determined by the Executive Committee of the MIW Radio Group. The decision of the judges will be final.

Special thanks to MIWs Corinne Baldassano, Denise Oliver and Ruth Presslaff for all of their hard work in making the award possible and also to MIW Susan Platt and the NAB for allowing the group to unveil the award at the 2009 NAB Fall Radio Show.

Kelly O’Keefe, Is Radio Popular Or Not?

The public research report, just out, is all sunshine and light:

“Younger 18-24 demos were more positive about radio than the audience in general. We saw improvement more quickly than we predicted.”

Could that be because they were using radio all along?

But, if things are so good, who needs to "turn radio back on", which is the internal campaign slogan at O'Keefe Brands?

Are we supposed to believe that they were turning radio off until the NAB hired Kelly's company and now that we've run their promo's, everything's OK?

Meanwhile, the public voice for the campaign - the impressive, dynamic David Rehr - when it was launched 18 months ago, is now looking for a new job.

There's so much 'spin' going on here, I am getting dizzy.

Steal These Ideas (Thanks, NAB And RAB)

On September 28, 2007 NAB President/CEO David Rehr announced that the NAB was hiring marketer Kelly O'Keefe, saying

"This is an important moment for radio. We must decide: Do we want to keep moving forward or stay behind?"

Over the intervening 17 months there have been moments when the campaigns which emerged seemed to me to be a bit naive and perhaps overly simplistic when viewed from the perspective of someone who has seen hundreds of local station perceptual studies, focus groups and music tests of all sorts, however the general direction has absolutely been worth emulating as you build your local station's loyalty and awareness campaigns.

"The new music series" spots, provided the nucleus of a great idea (click to hear and download them). No, you probably don't want to promote Caitin Crosby's new song unless she means something to your listeners, but you'll want to hear the newest spots:

"Radio's accessibility, content diversity and personality make it an essential part of the weekly routine for 93% of Americans. Each spot brings to life the different ways radio connects with 235 million weekly listeners."- Rehr

"The next generation of Radio Heard Here spots reflects the marketing efficiencies of strategic and creative radio commercials. In today's advertising climate it's more important than ever for our industry to remind marketers that radio advertising is an ideal solution to deliver their message to consumers."- RAB President/CEO Jeff Haley

Then why not customize them - using your brand in place of "this radio station," i.e. grab the next exciting superstar artists who come to your town/microphones, for example, and invite them to do something using the same scripts, talking about your radio station?