"Gut Wrenching"

A&O&B works with all parties involved in yesterday's huge transactions and so all of us have been busy counselling buyers, sellers, executives, employees, all longtime coworkers at broadcast groups, radio stations and networks we have come to love and admire.

Mergers and acquisitions require adaptability and change.  Mark L. Feldman and Michael F. Spratt wrote the book on the subject back in 1998. 

"Increasingly, the companies that win are those that learn faster, act quicker and adapt sooner. They will compress time by making and executing early, informed decisions about economic value creation, ruthless prioritization and focused resource allocation. They will use these decisions to take early firm stands on management deployment, organization structure and culture. Their actions will increasingly be linked to long-term, sustained economic value creation."

As someone who manages or works for one of those companies, you know intellectually the truth of of that paragraph, yet your individual needs and fears add relationships and emotion to the personal calculus which can work against getting what needs doing done.

I have another time-tested book I recommend that everyone read at least once a year which helps me with that process.  @ParachuteGuy Richard Nelson Bolles is now semi-retired, but his work goes on as the need is greater than ever.

Recent graduate of Villanova Law School Andrew Dellaripa blogs that it's important to be cautious about giving advice in situations like this:  "Good advice sticks to your very soul. The kind of advice Obi-Wan’s ghost gives.  Bad advice, though, is outdated, archaic clichés pulled from large-font posters of cats in baskets."

So, I'll go light on advice for you except to suggest that this weekend is a great time to think about your own personal goals, abilities and career.

The clearer you are on what makes you succeed the better communicator you'll be when that new leader you'll be working for begins opening up about your new role.

If you need a mentor to help with this process please reach out to any of the A&O&B team.

Your success is our success.

Putting Old Research Stats To The Real Life Test In 2013

Yesterday I dug back into the archives of Edison Research (click to see the study) for data on country's annual December swoon (Country Radio Got Run Over By A Reindeer).

While I was paging through the 2009 national perceptual data, I found some info that Cumulus will be putting to the test in the coming year as they reportedly plan to roll "Nash-FM" out nationally:

It certainly doesn't say that what Cumulus is planning won't work. but it tells me that they better execute it very well!

People seemed to feel they can recognize when something's not local:

As the ongoing, consistent ratings success of numerous syndicated daypart and networked talent proves, it's very possible for "great" to beat "local."

The best play should Cumulus start up their NASH against you:  be local, but also extraordinarily relevant and entertaining as well!

AM Listeners Are From Mars

... And, it sounds like New York and Chicago's newest radio stations are thinking that their FM listeners will be from Venus.

Both Arbitron and BBM offer some very helpful national perspective on why, even though we all love to cheer on a direct confrontation, it may be that everyone can coexist.

Here are three pages from BBM/Canada's 2010-2011 National Radio Data book which show how different the target audiences available on the two bands are today:



(click each chart to enlarge it in a separate browser window)

Two very nice things about radio warfare:

1, No one can take your audience away from you. You have to give it away.

2. No one dies, unless somebody ends up shooting themself in the foot.

A Tumultuous 15 Years

In May of 1996, I started to write a weekly newsletter I called "RadioIQ," which was the predecessor to this blog.

I found this item as I was paging through old issues today:

• "It will take $15 billion in trading to complete the consolidation process -- defined as the point at which 75% of radio is in the hands of the top 10 groups." By that measure, the industry has 80% more consolidating to do, said Alex. Brown & Sons Managing Director/Sr. Media Analyst Drew Marcus, who estimated that the process will take at least two years to complete. Fast-growing groups are best positioned for success in the long run. That is especially true of the public companies. "The fastest-gaining [radio] stocks are the consolidators," said Marcus. He pegged consolidators' stock growth at 2.5 times the rate of static companies. "Individual stations are too volatile, and we don't like companies that rely on just a few." He said companies like his, which underwrite many initial public offerings, look for groups that generate no more than 25% of their cash flow from their top two stations and keep debt leverage under 6.5. - Heard at the May 1996 Kagan Future of Radio Acquisitions & Finance Conference
  
  
• "Size -- if you are a public company -- is rewarded, as is diversification," said American Radio Systems Chairman/CEO Steve Dodge. But size for size's sake can be dangerous, Dodge warned. "These are still delicate critters that have to be marketed, programmed, and sold. I don't know that anyone has proven they can effectively run a 100-plus-station radio group."

It's going to be informative to see how many of these statements also apply to Cumulus-Citadel when it closes in September and how the few remaining "small" groups like Hubbard, Emmis, Entercon, Bonneville, Townsquare, Cox et all play out their futures in the face of it.

If you read this blog, your career prospects will be shaped by it.