Music City Math

Running Mediabase's "five day" chart on a Saturday is a weekly habit with me.

Seeing Monday-Friday spin rank without the distortions of weekend airplay can be a good indication of next week's label priorities. 



For example, it already appears that next week's #1 is going to be Carrie Underwood and then the likely chart-topper the following week will be Keith Urban.

With this week's #1, Brett Eldredge heading downward in spins after taking 44 weeks to top the spin charts, will Easton Corbin have the staying power to be all powered up the week of 9/2 for a #1 on 9/9?

You can be sure that his advocates are already battling for that place on the ranker.

As of this week, "All Over The Road" has been on the charts for 33 weeks (which seems like a youngster compared to the 56 weeks it took Lee Brice's 2010 debut "Love Like Crazy" to ultimately get only to #3.

Since radio power rotations are usually five to seven songs, the actual difference from radio's perspective between a #1 and a #7 is just a few spins per week on the average monitored station.

Don't tell that to a promotion person!

The best ones play the game weeks in advance, creating strategies and tactics designed to outrank competing artists, publishers and labels, all of whem have plenty of skin in the contest.

No one wants to end up at #2.

Should You Use This Prep?

From...

NEIL HAISLOP's NASHVILLE IQ © July 25, 2012:

TODAY SHOW TAPS CARRIE UNDERWOOD FOR SUMMER CONCERTS
Carrie Underwood will perform on the Today Show Summer Concert Series this August as the morning show plans a full week of outdoor concerts following the 2012 Summer Olympics. Carrie's concert in Rockefeller Plaza is set for Wednesday, August 15.

Among her hits, Carrie's set will also include the title track and new single "Blown Away" from her fourth album. "Blown Away," the single, has sales approaching quarter of a million and was written by Josh Kear and Chris Tompkins who also co-penned her smash hit, "Before He Cheats."

They've got us, don't they?  Damned if we do, and damned if we don't.

There are at least four or five terrific morning shows competing with radio very aggressively and creatively in your local market, of course, (and they really cut into our "at home" usage because they do big things radio is very often not doing).

It's not smart to ignore it when our biggest stars show up on competing channels, and yet it's equally dumb to promote turning them on at the same time, thus reminding your listener that there's something better they can enjoy right now.

I don't blame the music community for making the most of every promotional opportunity open to them.

We need to go where the audience is and ignoring anything they care about would be fatal.

What are you doing tomorrow morning to TOP all of the competition for their time and attention?

Thank You, Carrie

The wonderful people of country music and radio businesses have, in general, been far more supportive of me than I expected in the 19 years since I started a personal gender transition which culminated in a 1995 transsexual surgery that had no negative impact on what has been a great career in a very satisfying job.

Garth Brooks released "We Shall Be Free" and performed at an AIDS benefit at about the same time and I drew tremendous support from that act from a courageous star.

Chely Wright, I hear, feels that the business could have been more supportive of her decision to come out in a public way as Lesbian.  That's sad to hear, given her fabulous radio track record that 99 out of 100 hopefuls who come to Nashville have to be quite envious about, in spite of some ups and downs along the way.  It exciting to see her finally coming to grips with it all creatively in a new film, out this month.

I've learned that we have to take our sustenance from where it comes and be grateful for the good things along the way, and I'll bet they have as well.

That's why, Country Radio and Nashville Music Business, I want you to be extra nice to Carrie Underwood right now.

I don't mean that you need to say a word about her pro/con on the air.

Part of making a self-affirming decision such as I made is understanding that as I resolved my own personal confusion it no doubt created confusion for others who were unprepared to deal with or accept it.  Those folks have every right to their feelings too, of course, and country music radio is about reflecting real life and making people feel better.

All I ask is this.  Play a little extra Carrie this week.

No one else will notice, perhaps, but I am betting she will know and get the message of support the same way I have over the years from Garth, Chely and now her.

That's what friends are for.

Thank You, Carrie; Hello, Candy, Kristen, Marlee, Maggie and Jana

Last week's mail brought a wonderful Jewel Box Platinum award for Carrie Underwood from Arista Records, commemorating 14 million albums sold and 14 #1 singles.

Carrie, true to form, included a thank you note for radio's role in her exciting success story. You can't help but feel great for her!

In the same mailings of just the last couple days came music samplers from at least five women who would love to walk in her footsteps.

Kristen Kelly, Marlee Scott, Maggie Sajak, Jana Kramer and Candy Coburn are all Nashville newcomers who will be hoping for a slot on your playlist in the coming weeks.

They are all enthusiastic, talented, bright, beautiful young ladies and of course I wish them all well. The more hits, the better for radio!

At the same time, I hope they're ready for what an uphill battle it's going to be.

In 2011 A&O client national research averages tracked 82 songs which were tested for at least eight weeks. 25 different artists placed songs in this year’s top 1/3 (vs. 24 in 2010 and 21 in 2009). This is the most since 2005 when there were 26. So, the music lately has been very, very good as judged by our listeners.

There was a greater female presence among the currents we played this year in part because of male-female duets as well as mixed-gender acts. However the percent of female songs tested in the top 1/3 fell back from last year’s 9-year high (26.6%) to 20.7% this year which is just below the 13-year average of 23.6%.

Hopefully, 2012's new crop of women is coming with their very best songs as they compete for a small number of places on radio playlists.

Judging from last year, only one in four or five of country radio partisans' favorite songs ended up being by females, 75-80% were by males.

That's why Carrie's achievement is so impressive and why I hope the country distaff class of 2012 is prepared for the extremely daunting task ahead of them.

Who Writes This Stuff?

From one of Nashville's PR houses yesterday:

Carrie Underwood has kicked the sexy factor up a notch with her on-stage costumes on her new Play On tour, with things like a spandex catsuit and other form-fitting ensembles. Her stylist recently shared some of the scoop on how the wardrobe came together with People Country. Carrie enlisted the help of Soyon An, who is one of the costume designers for American Idol and So You Think You Can Dance. While some people might think some of the outfits are a bit bold for Carrie, Soyon says, ”She’s very fashion forward and very open to different types of clothing. She wasn’t intimidated at all–she was ready for it. It’s a tough look but it’s her attitude–and obviously she’s got the body for it.”

Fortunately, as the People photo shows, there's a lot more to Carrie, who famously took a busload of radio people bowling at last year's CRS and the folks who went with her know that she's not all that "fashion forward" when off stage.

Has there ever been a superstar country female who got there accenting her "sexy factor?"

Yet, as Tom T. Hall pointed out as far back as 1969, show biz is all about "puttin' up a front" and that she more than does (to the second power!).

Everybody Likes (Carrie) Surprises

In case you missed it Thursday night in Nashville, click to watch a replay of this clever stunt produced by WKRN Channel 2 on a young CMA Music Festival fan.

She loves the event and convinced 13 friends and family to join her this year. Her only wish in an email she sent to CMA, was that Carrie Underwood perform.

Carrie (around her full Super Bowl schedule) called to share the news with Riley, first. Her reaction is precious. Producers at the studio had tears in their eyes. It has a really sweet emotional quality to it – and they put it together in 12 minutes after getting stuck in horrendous traffic yesterday afternoon going back to the news room. A great buzz builder by the always-engaging Brad Schmitt!

So, yes, I like surprises.. unless it's true that Howard Stern is really headed to next year's American Idol...

The Grand Ole Opry Has Been On MySpace For Years

.. but, this is something new: a solid hour, simulcast online, right from the stage of the venerable venue.

Oprah Is Big, But Not As Big As Country Music

But, when it's Oprah AND country too, now THAT IS BIG.

Is country music the soundtrack of your life? The Oprah Winfrey is featuring the country music line up of the year ! Sugarland, Carrie Underwood, Kenny Chesney, and Darius Rucker. If you are a HUGE country music fan and you'd like to be a part of the audience for this taping we want to hear from you! We want to know who your favorite artist is and why!

Is there any country station anywhere that doesn't want to put this link on their website now?

A Lesson In Smart PR

.. from the folks at Bonneville/Cincinnati:

Jessie Tack created production magic, listeners responded and tonight's American Idol performance provided the perfect opportunity to get some great ink.

New LP's For Faith, George and Chesney; New Tour Dates For Carrie

Faith Hill's new "Joy To The World" LP releases on Warner Bros. next Tuesday and George Strait's "Classic Christmas" on MCA arrives at retail on October 7 and they are hoping to be the first two ornaments of your Holiday season.

Kenny Chesney is giving fans a chance to buy songs from his next album, which hits stores on October 4 right now.

New dates have just been announced as Carrie Underwood continues her "Carnival Ride" tour. Underwood will have performed 137 live shows in 2008, in addition to her many Opry and TV performances. The fall leg of the tour, sponsored by vitaminwater®, will begin tomorrow in Cleveland, Ohio and will feature special guest Little Big Town.

Lang: Underwood's Online Hit The Death Knell For CDs

George Lang writes in The Oklahoman:

The single is only available through the iTunes Music Store, and while it is hardly the first digital-only single, "I'll Stand By You” is the first of its type to become a Top 10 hit. Underwood's success with this song proves that consumers will buy online at the same rate they will at record stores. When the obituaries are written for the compact disc, this will likely be cited as a key factor in its demise.